Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Earth Wind and Snow]

15 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes what happens with the pressure rise over the UK, can it cut through the Euro trough and connect with the heights to the east? No trend from the GEFS yet, three clusters, about 33% supporting the ECM effort and 50% going with the GFS op (UK HP) and the rest a mix and match between the two.

Whether this is a trend or ECM over amplifying only time will tell, however it is certainly an option at the moment and we will hopefully see it grow. I for one do not believe that the UK high will verify as per the GFS op and control in FI. Those waves of energy from the Azores look ripe to barrel through the Euro trough and GEM also goes this way:

Yes GEM has shown this for last three runs. now ECM and also JMA are hinting at this evolution also - hopefully this trend will grow stronger over coming days

Edited January 17, 2016 by Earth Wind and Snow
sorry just saw Captain Shortwave got their first

[blizzard81]

Very interesting runs tonight. I wonder if this winter is shaping up to be similar to one of the many cold ones from the 80's. Most of those had mild or very mild decembers followed by classic cold in either jan or feb or both. Later this week could see one of those occasions which happened frequently back then - Kettley/Fish/Giles etc saying milder for a short time but make the most of it as it won't last! That happened a lot back then and was mainly due to the cold making a fight back from the east. I do wonder?

[shotski]

11 minutes ago, Earth Wind and Snow said:

Yes GEM has shown this for last three runs. now ECM and also JMA are hinting at this evolution also - hopefully this trend will grow stronger over coming days

And also pretty consistent with the 500mb anomaly charts. 

[legritter]

Hello all, my first attempt posting  a chart ever .

10 days away  yet does look promising will it come into the reliable though ,great forum tonight and still interesting in the charts 

[wishingforsnow]

Some great charts this evening to prolong or bring back more sustained cold for the UK I have to say. This could be the early signs of the 'February block' setting up along with possible PV destruction around the same time, the building blocks fit together and 

[blizzard81]

The extended ecm ensembles will be a must see tonight, especially after that tantalising op.

[IPredictASnowStorm]

This might get us some more snow 

[Earth Wind and Snow]

09 December 2009 - very mild south-westerlies covering British Isles

10 December 2009 - wave of high pressure pushes up from the Azores

Leading to this which was the beginning of a long cold spell 

Many more examples in the archives - not a million miles away from the current thinking of JMA, GEM and ECM

 

JMA Chart Day 6

 

GEM Chart Day 6

ECM Chart Day 7

ECM Chart Day 10

A lot of water to flow under the bridge but worth keeping an eye on that build of pressure from the south-west and whether it can join with pressure to our north-east to build a new cold block.  Anomoly charts are also hinting at something similar to the ECM, JMA and GEM evolutions - we may have hit on our next path to cold - maybe

 

EWS 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Earth Wind and Snow

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, Earth Wind and Snow said:

09 December 2009 - very mild south-westerlies covering British Isles

10 December 2009 - wave of high pressure pushes up from the Azores

Leading to this which was the beginning of a long cold spell 

Many more examples in the archives - not a million miles away from the current thinking of JMA, GEM and ECM

 

JMA Chart Day 6

 

GEM Chart Day 6

ECM Chart Day 7

ECM Chart Day 10

A lot of water to flow under the bridge but worth keeping an eye on that build of pressure from the south-west and whether it can join with pressure to our north-east to build a new cold block.  Anomoly charts are also hinting at something similar to the ECM, JMA and GEM evolutions - we may have hit on our next path to cold - maybe

 

EWS 

 

There is a big difference between 2009 and now though - in 2009, an Arctic High is moving down from the north to combine with the High over the UK.

But I agree there is potential for our high pressure at D7 to link up with heights over Russia. Potential needs to be used loosely, though, as most moves from the Russian high get close to the UK but rarely land a serious blow. When then do, though, they are the coldest beasts of all.

Judging by recent runs, it may be the first week of February before another major cold opportunity arises.

[Ali1977]

So it looks like high pressure will start to influence the UK from the South, what happens with that obviously has big ramifications on our weather. Sitting to our south would Atleast bring some settled weather , although temps would be above average. Anything North of central UK will bring something seasonable again, ideally it heads NE and links with heights that have been showing up over Siberia - We now have a cold continent so it wouldn't take ling for that to it our shores if that were to happen.

[Paul_1978]

@Earth Wind and Snow -similarly go back to mid Jan 1991 on Meteociel Archive and see how it developed into the holy grail by 8th Feb 1991. Or am I clutching at straws here? 

[ALL ABOARD]

Latest ec 12z courtesy of ian f on twitter. Note these are 850 predicted temps.

He also sais and I quote *there is a signal for +ve GPH anomaly building later Jan across/N/NE of the UK but not all ensembles go that route.*

Edited January 17, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[wishingforsnow]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Latest ec 12z courtesy of ian f on twitter. Note these are 850 predicted temps.

He also sais and I quote *there is a signal for +ve GPH anomaly building later Jan across/N/NE of the UK but not all ensembles go that route.*

Also note the drop off after the 25th 

[Earth Wind and Snow]

17 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

@Earth Wind and Snow -similarly go back to mid Jan 1991 on Meteociel Archive and see how it developed into the holy grail by 8th Feb 1991. Or am I clutching at straws here? 

Yes Paul that is another example.  Maybe not clutching at so many straws based on IF's latest update. I also saw a post from the respected Roger J Smith the other day stating that next bout of cold would come from the east or north-east.

EWS

[MR EXTREMES]

39 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

There is a big difference between 2009 and now though - in 2009, an Arctic High is moving down from the north to combine with the High over the UK.

But I agree there is potential for our high pressure at D7 to link up with heights over Russia. Potential needs to be used loosely, though, as most moves from the Russian high get close to the UK but rarely land a serious blow. When then do, though, they are the coldest beasts of all.

Judging by recent runs, it may be the first week of February before another major cold opportunity arises.

Pv on our recent model charts are massively different to those posted back in 09 close but over situation a lot different back then.

also 09 was east QBO with warming strat events also 0 sun activity for a sustained period of time with a madoki El Niño very different atmospheric dynamics this time.

but tonight's charts would suggest a more slower progression to the blocking set up need to sustain a cold solution.

i think the heights will be more sustained over most of England into France sw Europe but more settled with time lows feeding of the vortex hitting the block and heading northeast over and through Scandinavia slowly receding our heights back south east.

with continued pulses of heights from the Azores running east but more settled southern southeastern areas of the U.K.

all the models see the pv returning.

question is how long will it continue  

[bobbydog]

22 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

@Earth Wind and Snow -similarly go back to mid Jan 1991 on Meteociel Archive and see how it developed into the holy grail by 8th Feb 1991. Or am I clutching at straws here? 

nope, there are... similarities....

the ECM has caught my attention regarding possible developments but i'm not going to get excited yet.

well... maybe just a little bit...

[goosey007]

Think everybody moved on and come to terms with 'milder' spell at the end of the week. This has resulted in some great discussion this evening and positivity about propects for the next cold plunge. FI is definately giving coldies something to get their teeth into. Eyes down for the pub run I hope the trend continues.

[winterof79]

[wishingforsnow]

8 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Think everybody moved on and come to terms with 'milder' spell at the end of the week. This has resulted in some great discussion this evening and positivity about propects for the next cold plunge. FI is definately giving coldies something to get their teeth into. Eyes down for the pub run I hope the trend continues.

If the ensembles from tonight verify we may not have to wait very long for the next cold plunge 

[TSNWK]

36 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Latest ec 12z courtesy of ian f on twitter. Note these are 850 predicted temps.

He also sais and I quote *there is a signal for +ve GPH anomaly building later Jan across/N/NE of the UK but not all ensembles go that route.*

Hello.. Can somebody please advise what GPH means.. 

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. Can somebody please advise what GPH means.. 

Geo-potential height

[mulzy]

As per Ian F's tweet the Extended ECM ensemble set (11-15 days) do show positive height anomalies around Scandinavia...

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Geo-potential height

Very useful and thank you for taking the time to reply. I just googled it... suggests to me deeper than just a shallow SLP positive anomaly..

[tight isobar]

Ha' 18zwants to migrate cold continental 850hpa westwards. .

And laught in the Atlantic face!!!

[Yarmy]

On 15 January 2016 at 10:10 PM, PerfectStorm said:

P

Only posting to get rid of this flipping quote (if anyone knows how to get rid of it on an ipad, let me know).

But anyway, GPH = heights and the 18z holds back the Atlantic west by a couple of 100 miles again.