Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[shaky]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Blame the office party! lol Seriously though the UKMO output is an outlier not just for western Europe but over the ne USA and Arctic Canada.

Although the models have been all over the place if you put aside the differing views of placement of high pressure near Scandi they all have similar upstream and downstream patterns.

The detail might be a little sketchy but they're all singing from the same hymn sheet, the UKMO is singing in a different language.

Any more updates on arpege model nick or any other high reso model for 18z?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Blame the office party! lol Seriously though the UKMO output is an outlier not just for western Europe but over the ne USA and Arctic Canada.

Although the models have been all over the place if you put aside the differing views of placement of high pressure near Scandi they all have similar upstream and downstream patterns.

The detail might be a little sketchy but they're all singing from the same hymn sheet, the UKMO is singing in a different language.

To be fair though Nick it was on 5th December 2012 and so were the Met Office forecasts, don't want to be doom and Gloom but they are still the best in the world by a long way, it will be an interesting middle of night text update plus model runs if you can stand the intrigue.

[nick sussex]

Just now, shaky said:

Any more updates on arpege model nick or any other high reso model for 18z?

The ARPEGE is just coming out now. The Hi Res I haven't seen yet, I'll go and take a look now.

[snowbob]

But wasn't the ukmo the best model to go by not just 24 hours ago

beer goggles ready for next model of choice

Edited January 15, 2016 by snowbob

[cyclonic happiness]

I feel like FI is getting nearer and nearer by the day. The models aren't doing anyone any favours, this is total chaos.

This is like being transported back to the 1980s in forecasting terms. I sort of like it, but also hate it.

I almost want it to turn mild because then at least the damn models would be a bit more reliable. 

all this uncertainty is so strange, it's almost like something 'big' is waiting to happen 

[Lukesluckybunch]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

But wasn't the ukmo the best model to go by not just 24 hours ago

Haha always the best model is the one showing the best possible outcome for cold! We are all bias 

[Snowman.]

Just now, snowbob said:

But wasn't the ukmo the best model to go by not just 24 hours ago

It predicted the re-amplification of northern heights and was the first to attempt and undercut. It was consistent in its output for best of times but like all the other models it's struggling with the current pattern.

[Mair Snaw]

Can i just ask.... all week in here the UKMO has been out on its own and as it was showing the best for coldies it was being trumpeted and all the other models had to be wrong.... what has change in 24 hours??? everybody was really happy that the Meto were following the raw output with the fax charts...so why now the sudden change of heart?? now the ECM is showing better charts the UKMO is wrong???

[nicknacknoo]

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Haha always the best model is the one showing the best possible outcome for cold! We are all bias 

Just like teaching maths. It's quite possible to achieve the correct result through the wrong reasoning. I still wouldn't give my students (or the GFS) any credit.

[Snowman.]

ARPEGE

Really starting to like this model.

[cyclonic happiness]

2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Can i just ask.... all week in here the UKMO has been out on its own and as it was showing the best for coldies it was being trumpeted and all the other models had to be wrong.... what has change in 24 hours??? everybody was really happy that the Meto were following the raw output with the fax charts...so why now the sudden change of heart?? now the ECM is showing better charts the UKMO is wrong???

the Met offices' charts have warmed up, what better reason could there be for discarding them? 

[snowbob]

23 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

Haha always the best model is the one showing the best possible outcome for cold! We are all bias 

Totally agree mate

this really has been like a wild week out with all the models 

i really want a second date with one of them but I think they have all decided they are not calling back next week.

anyway who's up for going out next month I hear gfs has been dumped by ukmo and ecm has been caught doing naughty things with gem even though jma told aperge.

Edited January 15, 2016 by snowbob

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Can i just ask.... all week in here the UKMO has been out on its own and as it was showing the best for coldies it was being trumpeted and all the other models had to be wrong.... what has change in 24 hours??? everybody was really happy that the Meto were following the raw output with the fax charts...so why now the sudden change of heart?? now the ECM is showing better charts the UKMO is wrong???

It's the context.

The UKMO was the first model to actually not send everything NE and go for rebuilding of heights followed by an undercut. In blocking scenarios for the UK the models are notorious for attempting to bring the Atlantic back in as soon as possible professionals take this into account.

Nearly every cold spell I have seen predicted by models last longer than the initial breakdown its just history and the models struggling.

Edited January 15, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, snowbob said:

But wasn't the ukmo the best model to go by not just 24 hours ago

beer goggles ready for next model of choice

 The UKMO at least had some support then and we weren't talking of the T96hrs timeframe. Theres a difference a model being different at T120 and T144hrs but with the GFS/ECM/GEM/etc against it at T96hrs then I don't think its odds of verifying are good.

[markw2680]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ARPEGE

Really starting to like this model.

You ain't the only one, there's only one place that's going and it ent mild

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

It's the context.

The UKMO was the first model to actually not send everything NE and go for rebuilding of heights followed by an undercut. In blocking scenarios for the UK the models are notorious for attempting to bring the Atlantic back in as soon as possible professionals take this into account.

Nearly every cold spell I have seen predicted by models last longer than the initial breakdown its just history and the models struggling.

Thanks for the time to explain...

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

 The UKMO at least had some support then and we weren't talking of the T96hrs timeframe. Theres a difference a model being different at T120 and T144hrs but with the GFS/ECM/GEM/etc against it at T96hrs then I don't think its odds of verifying are good.

Cheers for reply nick

i see what you mean.

think I'm just venting a weeks worth of model fatigue.

 

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Thanks for the time to explain...

No problem

[Matty23]

When is the euro4 updated nxt 

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowbob said:

Cheers for reply nick

i see what you mean.

think I'm just venting a weeks worth of model fatigue.

 

You're not the only one! lol Its been a long week.

[Nick L]

Just now, Matty23 said:

When is the euro4 updated nxt 

Will start rolling out in the next 10-15 minutes.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Matty23 said:

When is the euro4 updated nxt 

Within the next half an hour or so.

[Snowy L]

I do worry when we start resorting to the more obscure models. Last year it was the BOM and this year it's Arpege. BOM was a complete failure last winter.

[Mapantz]

10 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ARPEGE

Really starting to like this model.

Please do correct me if i'm wrong, but that looks like a chart almost on the cusp of reverse zonality?

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ARPEGE

Really starting to like this model.

I've always had a soft spot for the French