Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[karlos1983]

low not as deep at +72 and heading further south. 06z V 00z

[mb018538]

To further illustrate the madness:

[karlos1983]

and the 06z goes pete tong.

TBC, but we are running out of time here

[warrenb]

I can see why it has gone quiet. SW winds back and no build of pressure to the NE.

Edited January 15, 2016 by warrenb

[Hammer]

It is quite because most have the sense to realise nothing has changed, still things to be decided. The 06z doesn't tell us anything we didn't know from this model. And that is it keeps fluctuating in its output beyond 72 hours and hence it serves as just a point of reference rather than to believe it will verify.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Hammer

[Weathizard]

 

Poor 6z comparably

Edited January 15, 2016 by Weathizard

[Glacier Point]

Updated upper level velocity potential update (GFS) is interesting..

Continued migration east of the -ve anomaly towards the Maritime Continent during week 2 but note also split emerging between North and South Hemispheres with the Northern Hemisphere element well into the Western Pacific. That suggests tendency in angular momentum will show an increase during week 2. No dramatic fall off in angular momentum.

Also, GEFS and EC EPS consistent on dropping an upper level trough through the Western Pacific (i.e. downslope of the Asian Massif) 23-24th Jan, with upslope ridges and troughs - good precursor pattern for generating westerly inertia into the Asian Jet.

Net result, GWO will continue to orbit high amplitude phases 6-7 and, with the renewed injection of westerlies coming, shade phase 5 as well..

Stress again, these composites are for February, and Jan composites not so keen on ridges in these locations but still suggestive of Scandinavian troughing (bet messy otherwise). So the close we get to Feb, the more I would expect the ridge to our west and north-west and trough to the east to bear out. Strat allowing..

 

Edited January 15, 2016 by Glacier Point

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I can see why it has gone quiet. SW winds back and no build of pressure to the NE.

Yes and with everything that's been said about FI being T+72 then I'm taking south westerlies at T+120 with a pinch of salt. 

[SMU]

The 06z struggles still at 72-96 to resolve the energy so whilst it moves to the right scenario ( we hope ) im- the mid term it fails

if we blended the 00z heights to the North & the 06z jet flow to the south ot may have got close

my tip - JMA & NAVGEM 06z's at 78 is where our snowline will be 

there not out yet BTW so its a forecast not a cut & paste.....

S

[warrenb]

Well I will say that the 6Z at 144 shows very pleasant weather down here in the SE. Frosty nights and dry days. The jet is not firing up in this run yet.

[Alexis]

54 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

How amazing to have a hurricane in January! I think it's only the 4th time on record it's happened? No wonder none of the models can handle this. BBC think that Alex will be absorbed into the general pattern and give the jet that shot of energy it needs to break through and turn things unsettled....though this is of course still very uncertain. Absolutely fascinating, and such a welcome break from Decembers tedious model watching of T+infinity showing wind and rain ad nauseum !

I don't think it has much, if any effect on the jet stream. A long fetch south westerly pumps much more warmth and energy into northern latitudes than a small system that is rapidly dying a death and cooling down quickly. Maybe if it was aligned to be advecting a stream of warm air in its wake, but this system doesn't seem to have this feature.

Edited January 15, 2016 by Alexis

[marksiwnc]

Just now, Glacier Point said:

Updated upper level velocity potential update (GFS) is interesting..

Continued migration east of the -ve anomaly towards the Maritime Continent during week 2 but note also split emerging between North and South Hemispheres with the Northern Hemisphere element well into the Western Pacific. That suggests tendency in angular momentum will show an increase during week 2. No dramatic fall off in angular momentum.

Also, GEFS and EC EPS consistent on dropping an upper level trough through the Western Pacific (i.e. downslope of the Asian Massif) 23-24th Jan, with upslope ridges and troughs - good precursor pattern for generating westerly inertia into the Asian Jet.

Net result, GWO will continue to orbit high amplitude phases 6-7 and, with the renewed injection of westerlies coming, shade phase 5 as well..

Stress again, these composites are for February, and Jan composites not so keen on ridges in these locations but still suggestive of Scandinavian troughing (bet messy otherwise). So the close we get to Feb, the more I would expect the ridge to our west and north-west and trough to the east to bear out. Strat allowing..

 

Would this be the expected torpedo?  What do you think is the favourable forecast for end of January and into February?? 

[SMU]

All I would say about Stewarts forecast ( without being accused of trolling ) is both he & Tamara put a forecast out for 17 jan - end of jan delivering 1983 synotics + quote 'a classical -NAO showing' Yet no review on that ( or at least commentary on how that period is set to look ) just move onto the next projection of cold - with the caveat of 'strat allowing' - surely thats the caveat of the whole of the winter -

 

Anyway back to the models - NAVGEM & JMA performing well ATM - I would also throw the Aperge in the mix 

Snowline 72-84 is the key

Edited January 15, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Paul_1978]

What do you mean in layman's terms @Glacier Point? Thank you. 

[nick sussex]

The GFS 06hrs run can be classed as better start worse ending, compared to the GFS 00hrs run worse start better ending upto T144hrs.

At this point I'd rather have the better start because given the uncertainty the worse start better ending is more likely to end up worse and then worse.

I think we should be looking for those smaller early positive changes which at least the GFS 06hrs run delivers.

There is one possibility here, although the upstream pattern flattens out somewhat its suggested that this might re-amplify by later next week to the east of the central US plains. Now this could help carve more sharpness and dig south of the troughing to the west which could in turn help keep high pressure further north near the UK or a bit further to the ne.

Edited January 15, 2016 by nick sussex

[Day 10]

I know it's only the gfs 6z but that vortex is looking angry again, I though it was supposed to be on the wane?

Let's hope it just hasn't got a clue what's going on!

Edited January 15, 2016 by Minus 10

[Polar Maritime]

Good scope for snowfall almost anywhere on Monday.

 

[warrenb]

the 6Z is quite nice if you like high pressure. Should help dry out a few people.

[Paul_1978]

13 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

I know it's only the gfs 6z but that vortex is looking angry again, I though it was supposed to be on the wane?

Let's hope it just hasn't got a clue what's going on!

The clue is comments from representatives of the Met Office referring to "exceptionally low confidence"'in the models and this chart being at T+192. :-)

[Chris1986]

Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?

[tempestwatch]

7 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?

After passing through the Azores, this storm will track almost due north into the North Atlantic tomorrow night and Saturday and will move over much colder water causing it to transition back into a non-tropical storm system. Eventually the non tropical counterpart of Alex will merge with another storm heading east from Newfoundland in the North Atlantic. Coutesy of Accuweather!

[TEITS]

30 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

All I would say about Stewarts forecast ( without being accused of trolling ) is both he & Tamara put a forecast out for 17 jan - end of jan delivering 1983 synotics + quote 'a classical -NAO showing' Yet no review on that ( or at least commentary on how that period is set to look ) just move onto the next projection of cold - with the caveat of 'strat allowing' - surely thats the caveat of the whole of the winter -

 

Anyway back to the models - NAVGEM & JMA performing well ATM - I would also throw the Aperge in the mix 

Snowline 72-84 is the key

What concerns me is the models are consistently predicting a very positive NAO for the last week of Jan. Infact I would argue we are seeing more consistency in the model output in F.I than in the reliable timeframe. Like I said a few days ago, forecasts based on teleconnections mean sod all if this is not shown in the model output. I do not intend any disrespect to Tamara or GP but I do not have much faith in these forecasts.

[warrenb]

Well again, the outer reaches of the 6z tie in well with the Meto long range forecast.

[Yarmy]

8 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?

If you look at all the ops, they all show this. Over the next 48 hours It rides up the west flank of the ridge over us and then merges with the approaching Atlantic low. The exact timing and path is presumably what's causing the short-term confusion thereafter. 

Regardless, in the medium term (T168+) the vortex intensification over Greenland with a SW flow for us has more or less unanimous cross-model support.

ECM

 

GEFS mean

 

GEM ENS mean

 

It's ok to say that FI is T72 so ignore everything beyond or whatever, but the signal for the above is overwhelming. If there's a Torpedo in the water, now would be a good time for it to appear on the sonar.

 

 

[Timmytour]

23 minutes ago, Chris1986 said:

Really not sure what to say to this.... Still hurricane force turning West at 90 deg. What would we make of that impact to models?

That looks more like the GFS track from the 0z run than it did earlier!