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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Makes little difference too me as I expect it will follow the raw output as it usually does. I just find the UKMO hard to believe sadly, it always seems to be over amplifying ridges and got some details wrong regarding this cold period.

Even I will admit I am a little shocked at how quickly this cold could be breaking down now but it was always going too happen(even the BBC forecasts suggested this) during next week sometime. Now its probably a case on how it will break down and what will happen next, a very mild SW'ly via rising heights in Europe looks the form horse atm, ECM has been very consistent and bullish about this. 

I think if Ian Fergusson reads this he might disagree - you've really kicked the Met Office in the wedding vegetables with that comment.  I'm sure the FAX chart is more than just an unthinking reflection of the UKMO operational run.

Getting back on-message, it does appear now as though mild Swerlies are going to return next week.  For me, the big question now surrounds their longevity.  I wonder if Alex might be GP's torpedo - you'd have to say that its forecasted path would send warm, moist air into high latitudes, and, if that doesn't disrupt the troposheric vortex, surely nothing will. 

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Meanwhile the JMA has a slightly different take on things

JN96-21.GIF

JN120-21.GIF

Goes downhill after that....

 

 

At least it managed to get some way up the mountain before tragically falling! lol The ECM whilst a bit better than the GFS is a long way from the UKMO. Both stopped for a cup of tea at base camp and couldn't be bothered to go any further!

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Even quite far out in FI territory, GFS and ECM are in agreement with the pattern, with high pressure to our south and two areas of low pressure to our north. Quite different to previous days when the major models were often very different at much earlier timeframes.

 


gens-0-1-192.png?12ECM1-192.GIF?14-0

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)

ECM 12z

Monday for next Thurs

ECM1-240.GIF

Tues for next Thurs

ECM1-216.GIF

Yesterday for next Thurs

ECM1-192.GIF

Today for next Thurs

ECM1-168.GIF

 

Really no point in looking beyond the weekend to what is happening next week. It'll be at least Saturday evening when we have clear indication of what the trend for next week really is.

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Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire

Certainly interesting to see posters stick to their beliefs. It leads to a very conflicting debate much like the models

With the input from pro's with access to more data, for me next week remains a very interesting period not yet resolved with any certainty.

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Posted
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Heat, Thunderstorms, Snow
  • Location: Tamworth, Staffordshire (83m ASL)
2 minutes ago, Sawel said:

Where have you been this past 

I think partly its disappointment taking over but ECM and GFS agree.

Time after time we all hope UKMO is correct and to some degree ECM but the GFS seems to have a slight edge with this scenario (i.e. the one where we all hope the GFS is too progressive).

I will focus on February or even end of January for a better shot at longer lasting cold and snow oppurtunities.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
2 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I think if Ian Fergusson reads this he might disagree - you've really kicked the Met Office in the wedding vegetables with that comment.  I'm sure the FAX chart is more than just an unthinking reflection of the UKMO operational run.

Getting back on-message, it does appear now as though mild Swerlies are going to return next week.  For me, the big question now surrounds their longvity.  I wonder if Alex might b GP's torpedo - you'd have to say that its forecasted path would send warm, moist air into high latitudes, and, if that doesn't disrupt the troposheric vortex, surely nothing will. 

There might be other variables but in general more times than not, the fax charts tend to follow the UKMO raw output and I would not be surprised if it does again tonight but will it mean anything? Not for me it won't. 

The ECM is slightly better than the GFS in terms of height rises just to the SE of Greenland and this could be a saviour to delay that very mild air from heading our way and its why I won't say just yet its a guarantee that very mild air will head our way but does look like the cold snap will come to an end to something less cold then potentially something exceptionally mild once again. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Shepperton - TW17
  • Location: Shepperton - TW17

For what it's worth - I think we're going to get strange results for the next few days from all models. Even if ensembles are clustered colder\mild - I also think we'll see them jumping about. I can't remember the last time I saw such differences from all models at such short time frames which tells me all I need to know. One things for sure, it's keeping me glued to the screen! Great time to be watching.

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Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury

Ian / Melanie or Shropshire whatever his name is has slaughtered UKMO over on TWO, too be honest its a very early call to say the Atlantic will be back in by Monday.

Beeb still going for cold for a while

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Whilst in one way this is a fascinating period of model output it is becoming wearing as we try to fathom out where we go next week.

All ens outputs from GFS/ECM in recent days favour a short period of a blocking ridge over the weekend and then sinking this south into the continent by mid-week.If anything the move for this has solidified this evening with the ops pushing the high even further south later next week than they showed 24hrs. ago.

The UKMO remains the only main model to hold back the Atlantic advance at least until day 6 with some form of weak blocking still around and this would keep the cold air over us for longer.

It really is tough to call this as a compartively small adjustment to the way jet splits off NA can flip the pattern north or south.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

We all have to remember that the "skill" in weather forecasting is the interpretation of what the models show, and not taking each individual run as a forecast.

Weather forecasting isn't about looking at a chart, say the GFS 12z on the 14th Jan and making a forecast from it, its about gathering ALL the data,  all the operationals, all the ensembles, the inter-run differences, historical trends, pattern matching and so on. Then the likely outcome can be averaged, balanced or down right punted!!

But this is what we should expect, this is why we get so much discrepancy in the posts in this thread, because people interpret the charts and information in  different ways, it doesn't mean people are ramping or being awkward just that we will all see different outcomes from the data presented. 

So as a reader of the thread, you may see one person talking about mild and another talking about cold, this doesn't mean either is right or wrong, and although it may seem confusing it is simply how we individually interpret the data. And when the data changes so does the interpretation.

So to back up this point........ i interpret the UKMO as a peach of an operation lol

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The NAM high resolution model at T60hrs completely disagrees with the GFS. Has a much stronger low near Newfoundland and looks more like the UKMO/GEM for that area.

The NAM, Arpege and other Hi-Res models all show the ECM and GFS have got this wrong. Before anyone asks yes I have been given a sneak peak but can't say how

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Location: Rotherham
2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

As we need to be in the short term range of model analysis...a model like the German DWD needs to be looked at...only goes to T78

image.png

image.png

Yes it's a rare occasion where a model like this becomes very important. The public models won't show the solution until tomorrow. They don't have the right resolution when 50 mile differences make all the difference

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

This is not over yet folks!!just feel we could see some tasty charts and more of an undercut tomorrow!!one thing for certain is the 12z ecm has lows at a more favourable undercut than the 00z!!!ukmo leads the way for me!!hope am not wrong lol!!

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Since Tuesday (tonight's T120) appears to be "Atlantic breakthrough day" on some of the models, I thought it would be interesting to see how they have progressed towards Tuesday in recent runs.

ECM: complete model madness. Remember that big Greenland trough it wanted to throw in a few days ago? Gone.

ECM1-216.GIF?12ECM1-192.GIF?12ECM1-168.GIF?12ECM1-144.GIF?12ECM1-120.GIF?14-0

GFS: funnily enough, nearly back to where it started 5 days ago

gfs-0-216.png?12gfs-0-192.png?12gfs-0-168.png?12gfs-0-144.png?12gfs-0-120.png?12

UKMO: well only two charts to view so far, but notice how much further south the Azores heights are - yellows are barely past Portugal, while GFS/ECM consistently get them to north France

UW144-21.GIF?13-12UW120-21.GIF?14-17

 

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
5 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

hmm....not sure I agree with this......we have a wildcard addition to the party, namely one Hurricane Alex, a feature to certainly test the supercomputer algorithms!......reminds me of a woman I once dated who couldn't make her mind up about anything, her name was Ms Shannon Entropy :wink:

I just can't see the ECM being that far off AJ. I'm already looking for FI trends in terms of the next cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

so we ignore the higher res models thats disagree with ecm ,ok .

I wager with you that the UKMO has the wrong solution. I think the ECM is about right. If I'm wrong I'll happily eat my words. You'll rarely see the ECM wrong at day 3 or 4.

Even if the hi res models are modelling that low correctly there's nothing to say they wouldn't go on to show an Atlantic breakthrough. There's more than just that variable at play!

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Here are 4 charts at T72hrs-- UK Fax,UK raw,ECM and GFS

fax72s.thumb.gif.1a4e04609a7fb5c8eae3941UW72-21.thumb.GIF.2efdca45fa3c4dd5457df5ECM1-72.thumb.GIF.fd3e83a3ade81871f9191fgfs-0-72.thumb.png.7926c63742193297f40ea

It looks like the fax has been drawn from the raw output which for the cold hanging on is good news.We can see on the ECM and GFS the high over the UK already starting to topple because of the push east from the Atlantic trough.

Subtle differences there which mean within 2 days after the GFS/ECM bring in the Atlantic.

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