Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[ukpaul]

ECM 96 is the Atlantic of the UKMO with the Europe of the GFS. Not so much a blend as a fusing.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Poor ECM at just day 4 in my opinion. There's no way the Atlantic won't get fully in from there as phasing occurs too far to our N. Fine margins though as Nick has said.

[bluearmy]

occlusion heading east at day 4 on ecm. we had one heading ne at day 5 on ukmo.  ukmo is better for maintaining the cold (again)

[Eskimo]

Oh...Atlantic incoming. 
 

[snowice]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

 

 

 

Only in this thread.  lol.

It's as clear as mud, it's like a game of tennis in here FI  is96hrs.

[weather eater]

firstly I don't think we can call any model poor both the GFS and UKMO sit out on their own. Both have been as consistent as I would expect, with both showing variations on their respective evolutions. Poor might be of some use to describe one or the other once we get some resolution.

Rather like some sort of mathematical tug of war the other models have chopped between one and the other, first lending support for one solution and then the other before swapping back just before the winning line is reached.

Big ECM coming up, well we have been saying that for days. Real proof will be when one or the other (UKMO/GFS) or possible both, finally admit defeat. As has been discussed Alex may be pivotal in that. For those hoping for cold and snow it's a rollercoaster but from a pure fascination with modelling the weather, I simply can't think of a more interesting period.

[Cloud 10]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

It's as clear as mud, it's like a game of tennis in here FI  is96hrs.

 

FI is as soon as I turn my computer on at the moment!

[radiohead]

GFS and ECM at T120.

[Geordiesnow]

Yep ECM is definately looking like the GFS and it shifts the cold away quicker than the UKMO, no real surprise for me, it has been forecast by both the GFS and ECM constantly if albeit slightly different variations for days now but not taking it seriously because its something they don't want too see. 

Still perhaps the uncertainty will remain of when it will break down and how will it break down but the confidence next week of it turning less cold is a strong one now. 

[Weather-history]

 

FAX charts at 96hrs and 120hrs tonight will give a big clue how the Met Office see it. They will be within range.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

FAX charts at 96hrs and 120hrs tonight will give a big clue how the Met Office see it. They will be within range.

hopefully ian will let them know that we are all waiting for them to be issued !  a tricky call for the duty forecaster

[Purga]

I expected another 'wildcat' run from ECM TBH so don't lets get too downcast. It is very different to the 0z and simply reflects the huge uncertainty at the moment.

Althoiugh not very pretty ! Notice that the jet is moving south compared to the 0z which had it roaring away to the north of the UK.

It won't take much more adjustment to south to bring a very much more favourable setup. Remember the METO forecast of a shift to zonality to the SOUTH of the UK.

Keep smiling.

[Harsh Climate]

The fat woman certainly looks like she's got rid of her saw throat and has just arrived on stage... 

If it wasn't for the recent model uncertainty I would say the writing is 90% on the wall in favour of a return to atlantic/mild conditions next week.

Edited January 14, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[booferking]

ECM 72hr high is slightly weaker than UKMO at the same time very small margins and it can still go the right way for extended cold.

[Paul White.]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

FAX charts at 96hrs and 120hrs tonight will give a big clue how the Met Office see it. They will be within range.

Speaking of FAX charts are they scored in the verification stats? 

[Frosty.]

The way I see it, we are no clearer because the ukmo is still sticking to it's guns with a prolonged cold outlook so I'm not giving up on this and will wait to see what the ecm 12z ens mean shows in a few hours and then the all important updated fax charts later. ...desperately hope the ukmo comes out on top for all the coldies on here who have been so short changed by this abysmal winter so far..Fingers crossed

[Cheshire Freeze]

I think we need to ask ourselves, will the ECM be wrong at day 3/4? Unlikely. I'm happy to call an Atlantic return next week. Though I'm certainly not despondent as I thoroughly believe it'll be just as transient as this cold spell! 

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

FAX charts at 96hrs and 120hrs tonight will give a big clue how the Met Office see it. They will be within range.

Makes little difference too me as I expect it will follow the raw output as it usually does. I just find the UKMO hard to believe sadly, it always seems to be over amplifying ridges and got some details wrong regarding this cold period.

Even I will admit I am a little shocked at how quickly this cold could be breaking down now but it was always going too happen(even the BBC forecasts suggested this) during next week sometime. Now its probably a case on how it will break down and what will happen next, a very mild SW'ly via rising heights in Europe looks the form horse atm, ECM has been very consistent and bullish about this. 

[chris55]

No Fat ladys yet lol

ECM upto 120 is certainly trending in the right direction. 

The 0c isotherm hardly passes Birmingham by 144, the 00z had it up towards Norway!!!

[MR EXTREMES]

Seriously backing the ukmo it's so smooth in its runs very consistent I will be very suprised to see the Atlantic back in that quickly.

i remember the shallow heights of Feb 2013 never went anywhere for weeks.

either that or we head into Feb 97/98 style but I doubt that now El Niño has weakened a bit

the vortex is looking bit more organised though 

[Djdazzle]

Things still no clearer. Would take a brave call to predict a return to westerlies next week. You would not bet any money in any outcome at the moment. Expect some more wild swings on the 0z runs.

There differences that are huge at T72! So how can anyone be confident of what will happen next week?

[nick sussex]

The GEM and UKMO have similar depth low pressure near Newfoundland at T60hrs this phases favourably with the upstream troughing. This is enough to hold back low heights from spilling north east:

I would have thought that the mesoscale models would be the thing to look out for tonight when these update, not just upstream but with the tropical storm.

 

[Paceyboy]

The model output is certainly clear for next week.

A return of atlantic weather. We are too close for this to change back to cold.

Again, we may have to play yet another wating game, which is incredibly fustrating.

Hopefully there will be some snowfall Monday/Tuesday but dont be expecting it.

In the meantime, the Cheshire Gap shower maker is firing up now so those in Wales and the Midlands could focus on this for now and pray for a turn around for 4-5 days away.

[Geordiesnow]

2 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

Seriously backing the ukmo it's so smooth in its runs very consistent I will be very suprised to see the Atlantic back in that quickly.

i remember the shallow heights of Feb 2013 never went anywhere for weeks.

either that or we head into Feb 97/98 style but I doubt that now El Niño has weakened a bit

the vortex is looking bit more organised though 

But the ECM has been consistant in bringing back milder air and have Euro heights increasing, PV strengthening and the potential of some exceptionally mild air coming into the UK, now whether we will get that truly exceptionally mild air is uncertain at this stage but the cold snap looks like its on its way out and potentially on its way out with a little bit of a wimper in truthness. 

The UKMO could be right but most models seem to be backing what the ECM/GFS saying, only uncertainty for me is how long will this process will be, today runs has pushed the breakdown forward a bit but it could be a little too progressive but either way it looks like it WILL turn less colder next week with potentially the weather turning very mild as we head past midweek. 

[mulzy]

Meanwhile the JMA has a slightly different take on things

Goes downhill after that....

 

 

Edited January 14, 2016 by mulzy