Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[london-snow]

I honestly cannot see what's to be despondent regarding today's/tonight's output,

 

imo and i invite those to shoot me down if wrong but i feel that what we will see is a 'HARSH' cold outbreak (in comparison to recent years) where I feel a n-w - eventually sustained n-e -e wind pattern I do however feel that it will take a while for the pattern to become established so time frame wise :

 

coldish - cold - already - 24th,

possible breif mild and or a sw attack standoff possible incursion 25th - 29th,

cold easterly / north easterly 30th onwards,

Edited January 13, 2016 by london-snow

[chris55]

All hail the UKMO

 

Thats my last thought of the night, an early one beckons, night night all

 

 

[essexweather]

Very usual, but Subtropical Storm Alex has formed today. The model track from the National Hurricane Center shows our block making its presence felt:

Edited January 13, 2016 by essexweather

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

All hail the UKMO

 

Thats my last thought of the night, an early one beckons, night night all

 

 

looks like ukmet backing their own model loking at fergie latest tweet,like to see what their other models are showing,as for gfs lol what a disaster its been the last week,way way too progressive and playing catchup all week,it had the cold spell over by sunday a few days ago,oh dear 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, Whether Idle said:

 

Nick, the lesser models are going for Atlantic dominance at 120 (take a look at CMA, Brazilian) some ECM ens members also follow what I think is a false trail.  The UKMO version of events is maybe  most wished for, but it is looking isolated, if it proves correct it would further enhance a growing reputation.  We shall see.

The ECM mean is going to include about 15 ensemble solutions that are past the point of no return so this will wash out what the clusters are showing. This is always the issue with undercut scenarios, theres no middle ground. At this point if theres going to be a trend its more likely going to be movement from the ECM to the GFS/UKMO or one of those towards the ECM, or to the UKMO.

The higher resolution of the operationals is more important in undercutting situations. At the moment the big 3 all undercut at T120hrs so lets hope for no dramas.

[essexweather]

12Z ECM ensembles are out: http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

Still the majority favour a warm-up at the surface in a weeks time.

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Which would figure if the UKMO T144hrs is the Met's favoured option Mark.

maybe cold backing west later from the undercut.Mmm.

As you say phil, UKMO144hrs is very interesting!

Just to add, if I may to your comment, 'Mets  favoured option' , it was less than two weeks ago that 'they' forecast, 'favoured'  mild to basically continue to end of Jan........interesting model viewing! 

[Purga]

DeBilt ENS looking cold out to D9/10 when there is more of a milder cluster but that's a long way off and the trend looks ever more fvourable for extended cold.

The longer the cold stays in place the harder it is to shift and the greater the chances for snow opportunities to spring up!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All, perhaps we can call this cold spell a quiet affair rather than anything dramatic!!! High pressure in charge, which in my opinion is very good news. Very cold crisp nights and mornings with of course the problems with freezing fog in some places. So at least a protracted spell of dry weather which is music to the ears of flood victims and to the whole of the Uk to be honest! The Synoptics press the "Reset" button for the Uk, The Floura and Fauna, the Animals and Us willbenefit from a much colder ,drier spell...........

[radiohead]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

looks like ukmet backing their own model loking at fergie latest tweet,like to see what their other models are showing,as for gfs lol what a disaster its been the last week,way way too progressive and playing catchup all week,it had the cold spell over by sunday a few days ago,oh dear 

None of the models have been very good recently, however I don't think the GFS has been a disaster compared to the UKMO regarding the weather week. In fact, looking back at the archives to the 8th, here is the GFS T120 compared to reality today and below that is the UKMO T120 compared to reality today.

GFS was very close to what actually happened. UKMO was quite a way off the mark.

 

 

As for which model will be correct 5 days from now....I'm not sure I believe any of them right now!

[M1245]

Interesting post from Fergie in Twitter. "Atlantic mobility and mildness not expected anytime soon" according to UKMO. Any thoughts from the more experienced members?

[i luv snow]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

None of the models have been very good recently, however I don't think the GFS has been a disaster compared to the UKMO regarding the weather week. In fact, looking back at the archives to the 8th, here is the GFS T120 compared to reality today and below that is the UKMO T120 compared to reality today.

GFS was very close to what actually happened. UKMO was quite a way off the mark.

 

 

As for which model will be correct 5 days from now....I'm not sure I believe any of them right now!

I think you are discounting the constant changes and swings from the GFS, compared to the relative consistency of the UKMO.

Edited January 13, 2016 by i luv snow

[SMU]

Evening All -

so what learnings can we take away from the models for this evolution -

* Well firstly it has to be said when it comes to scenarios where theres a whiff of an undercut & potential for a wedge of heights over western Norway or iceland then the UKMO is king, 

- Apart from the first over estimation of heights over greenland the UKMO has smashed the ECM & GFS out the park- The 120 & 144 of the last 2 days from UKMO have travelled the fabled cold path to almost certain verification - 

From the GFS lag in terms of correcting & being on the same page it has been 3 / 3.5 days - as it flounders around randomly scattering low pressures in place of blocking in the atlantic - which has always compounded the problem of it muting the ridge & allowing the atlantic in .... Eventually once it clears the lows & seperates the energy ( one of its inherent problems ) so the high ridges north like the sea being parted !!!

The final nail in the GFS coffin came from 06z to 12z today - a GIF has been posted by darren on TWO showing the total collapse of the day 5 > T2Ms for england - its shockingly bad - maybe 5-6 degrees each day in the means after day 5 .....

* The ECM has been a little less volatile but consistently wrong is as bad as inconsistently wrong .... But its saving grace was its quicker resolution & movement to the UKMO yesterday - infact ironically had the UKMO not have existed we would have been signing the ECMs praises for picking up this New trend - it was 1 full day behind UKMO....

- incidentally the plucky NAVGEM did well in the also ran stakes as did the Aperge ....

* so onto phase 2 - or what im calling it..... I think we can safely say in our little world FI is big picture 120 tonight & the finer detail around 96.... Thats because within the 96-120 bracket we have 'some' moderate energy pushing into the uk being deflected SE

- but as time goes by & as reality begins to strike in the models so that deflection bends further south - so shallow low 1 could miss - if it doesnt its a snow event for at least the SW....

so phase 2 ( post 120) - its important to remember even here that phase 2 could see a total different winner in the accuracy stakes so no model gets 100% discounted .... However you go with what you believe to be the leader in this current pattern -

* So from the bottom up the GFS wants to continue to flatten out post 144 & topple the high with the atlantic rolling over the top - we have seen over the last 36 hours the GFS go from no high to a high to the SE to the east & slowley it rises from the ashes like phoenix ! On the current 12 z it got so close to UKMO at 120 that it had a patch of 552 dam heights over iceland -

as time progresses it will continue to develop that in the 72-96 timeframe so by tomorrow night the 72 & 96 will be correct -

but then as PH 2 enters the stage the default toppler scenario will be the pattern ... So GFS unlikely to be trendsetter over the next 2 days....

* The big guns - The ECM DET & probably the ENS SUITE will probably be mediocre tonight - you could go as far as to say on a par with GFS after 144 ( maybe with more of a split to cold )

The det run after 120 follows similar trends of previous days which is an overunning pattern - ie much energy focussed NE creating a purge NE of heights - eventually forcing mild air in - 

Route cause ( could be correct ) not enough positive heights over greenland to create trough disruption SE ....

* heres the interesting part - UKMO ( remember the trendsetter - The david beckham of the models lately is perfect tonight - )

An equal balance of positive heights to the north offsetting the trough disruption in a perfect angle of ESE over the UK with the most remarkable thing - it sustains the optimum UK track & angle over 3 days - 120/144 & probably 168...

looking at the archives most second waves of energy do take a slightly more northerly track & theres usually a surge in the jet allowing more northward penetration - but not always....

Jan 13 a good example ( remember when UKMO was hero again ) & heres a chart from dec 81 where the energy spread & angle across the western atlantic & france alligned perfect for the UK to get snow event after snow event

what a great chart !

 

So in summary the UKMO has been heroic & phase 2 of our evolution started today - ie post 132.... Ukmo the red hot favourite & the green zero on the roulette table....

S

Edited January 13, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Lukesluckybunch]

35 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

 

Hi there Steve I am new here and somthing of a novice,the chart from the year 81 you showed.are you predicting somthing like that come next week!?

Edited January 13, 2016 by phil nw.
removed long quote

[ANYWEATHER]

38 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Evening All -

 

So in one sentence Steve what are you saying?????

Edited January 13, 2016 by phil nw.
removed long quote

[Andy Bown]

Can people please not quote entire posts! Steve Murr's long detailed post appears 3 times in succession!

[Jason T]

I think it has to be said that finally a well deserved pattern change is here. So far for this winter period the models have just shown what's been quite extraordinary in the way of Temps but the Bi has had its more than fare share of Atlantic onslaughts. Any model output showing Winter for us is always a nail biter. I think that maybe even model forecasting has had to have short sharp shock to its systems in the way that winter is actually going to take place. We could be in for a shocker. 

[SMU]

17 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

So in one sentence Steve what are you saying?????

In the last few words

UKMO to win - GFS ( green roulette space ) the 36/1 rank outsider....

[steveinsussex]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

In the last few words

UKMO to win - GFS ( green roulette space ) the 36/1 rank outsider....

0 always comes up when i Play

[I remember Atlantic 252]

18Z still looking good! GFS though dosen't model convective snow very well, shows nothing through Cheshire Gap

[Froze were the Days]

58 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Very usual, but Subtropical Storm Alex has formed today. The model track from the National Hurricane Center shows our block making its presence felt:

Not the first time this winter we've seen lows develop in very southerly latitudes, as we all know you don't break the December CET by a mile without having some serious Tm air from well south as we saw on occasions helped by that big euro slug of November/December - something I haven't witnessed before in winter - maybe a few others could help if they have seen synoptics occurring like this in any other winter?

[Spah1]

 

 Sliders/energy going underneath? 

Edited January 13, 2016 by Spah1

[phil nw.]

27 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Can people please not quote entire posts! Steve Murr's long detailed post appears 3 times in succession!

Yes good point Andy! Anyway have now edited out the long quotes for easier reading.

[shotski]

1 hour ago, essexweather said:

Very usual, but Subtropical Storm Alex has formed today. The model track from the National Hurricane Center shows our block making its presence felt:

Lovely stuff.

we have lift off !!!!

[Ali1977]

Just now, shotski said:

Lovely stuff.

we have lift off !!!!

This should aid our block, sending more WAA into that area.