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phil nw.

Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

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Here we are then another new thread ready for the 12z outputs.

It's certainly been a busy period since the start of the year with pages filling up fast because of mounting interest in how this cold spell may pan out.Indeed we are now seeing Winter proper finally showing it's hand.

The cold has now arrived pretty much nationwide as the Arctic air eases south over the UK.This is the picture modeled at 12 noon tomorrow.

5696614c89648_12tom.thumb.png.0cfa43572d

Looking at the latest 2mtr.temperature graph for London

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.7201aed8b7

shows this cold spell lasting well into next week under a blocking high which is expected to develop by the weekend.This will keep the Arctic cold locked in over the UK for a number of days.We then see a large spread yet again between the model suites indicating the continued medium range uncertainty.

Plenty of twists and turns to come yet in the charts i reckon so plenty to discuss in the new thread as the model runs come out.

Just a request at this very busy time for members to please keep to model discussion in here as it makes reading and understanding the content much easier for everyone.

Using the other threads in the Winter area for general banter or ramps/moans  etc would greatly help to keep the Model thread enjoyable and informative for all.

Ok thanks everyone and on we go.:)

 

 

 

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@fergieweather

Forgive me Ian, but could you tell me what the chart shows on your last post?

 

I assumed it was the freezing level, but unsure without a key. My meteorological knowledge has dwindlelled a lot lately. 

Thanks in advance!

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So judging the previous 3 12z from a GFS perspective, lets hope we see it continue it's trend of not bringing the Atlantic in and sending energy SE rather than bulldozing straight towards us.

10th/11th/12th

gfsnh-0-168.png?12gfsnh-0-144.png?12gfsnh-0-120.png?12

+96 will be a make or break timeframe as it relates to what trough disruption it can achieve 

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Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

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Just now, Timmytour said:

Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

yes not looking good atm, with heights sinking already 

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

dont think so, trough to the west seems better aligned that on 6z and heights are slightly further north by Iceland? Early days anyway like you said

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2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

dont think so, trough to the west seems better aligned that on 6z and heights are slightly further north by Iceland? Early days anyway like you said

Yes, perhaps was a little premature

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

yes not looking good atm, with heights sinking already 

 

Looks slightly better to me, the low pressure that tries to undercut is a tad further south than on the 12z run, should be a bit more of an undercut on this run.

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T78  The fella in the easy chair over Eastern Europe is moving the chair backwards!!!

gfs-0-78.png?12

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GFS at 96 is better than 6z and 00z but still think its not disrupting the trough to our west enough and has it slightly too north. We shall see.

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Is GFS ready at T108 to start sending energy under?

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1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Is GFS ready at T108 to start sending energy under?

having a darn good go at it

gfs-0-114.png?12

TENSE

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4 hours ago, bradythemole said:

GFS at 96 is better than 6z and 00z but still think its not disrupting the trough to our west enough and has it slightly too north. We shall see.

I wouldn't worry about any GFS run until we are back into a positive AO/NAO situation. 

The whole GFS model suite has failed miserably and continues be a day or two behind in these blocky periods.

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Cold air a lot further west on this GFS run - -10 in east Anglia!image.thumb.gif.97f7a94bc4bdfc8b26c23810image.thumb.gif.773bcf7a42e723717cf66d37

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gfsnh-1-114.png?12

You can clearly see how it is prolonging the cold day by day.

gfsnh-1-120.png?6

 

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this is looking much better from GFS

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

The theme is good, I'm not to worried what happens from now on. Cold spell extending.

I apologise for my incorrect hasty early post. I should know better :oops:

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

this is looking much better from GFS

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

The theme is good, I'm not to worried what happens from now on. Cold spell lengthening.

I apologise for my incorrect hasty early post. I should know better :oops:

haha...likewise....but i think the earlier progression helped it develop better for us....but still knife-edge stuff

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Atlantic pushing through early next week?

gfsnh-0-138.png?12

 

What Atlantic???????    GFS then sets us up with bitterly cold air coming from the continent?

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At T138 on GFS there's a 10mb difference in pressure over the UK from its previous run.....  it may be trending somewhere but it's not settled!

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GFS has really jumped into the cold camp this evening.Deep cold over much of Europe by day 4.

gfs-1-96.png?12

Interesting to see the Atlantic back off and the block rebuilds to our nw.

gfs-0-120.png?12

nice trend.

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Temperatures under that high will absolutely bItter. Major backtrack from the GFS.

gfs-0-150.png?12

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