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Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

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@fergieweather

Forgive me Ian, but could you tell me what the chart shows on your last post?

 

I assumed it was the freezing level, but unsure without a key. My meteorological knowledge has dwindlelled a lot lately. 

Thanks in advance!

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So judging the previous 3 12z from a GFS perspective, lets hope we see it continue it's trend of not bringing the Atlantic in and sending energy SE rather than bulldozing straight towards us.

10th/11th/12th

gfsnh-0-168.png?12gfsnh-0-144.png?12gfsnh-0-120.png?12

+96 will be a make or break timeframe as it relates to what trough disruption it can achieve 

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Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

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Just now, Timmytour said:

Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

yes not looking good atm, with heights sinking already 

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3 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Early days but an even more progressive run in the making here....Energy beginning to head north east?

dont think so, trough to the west seems better aligned that on 6z and heights are slightly further north by Iceland? Early days anyway like you said

Edited by bradythemole

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2 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

dont think so, trough to the west seems better aligned that on 6z and heights are slightly further north by Iceland? Early days anyway like you said

Yes, perhaps was a little premature

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

yes not looking good atm, with heights sinking already 

 

Looks slightly better to me, the low pressure that tries to undercut is a tad further south than on the 12z run, should be a bit more of an undercut on this run.

Edited by Harsh Climate

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T78  The fella in the easy chair over Eastern Europe is moving the chair backwards!!!

gfs-0-78.png?12

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UKMO at +96. 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

+72 seems to have gone missing. 

Edited by karlos1983

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GFS at 96 is better than 6z and 00z but still think its not disrupting the trough to our west enough and has it slightly too north. We shall see.

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Is GFS ready at T108 to start sending energy under?

Edited by Timmytour
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1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Is GFS ready at T108 to start sending energy under?

having a darn good go at it

gfs-0-114.png?12

TENSE

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4 hours ago, bradythemole said:

GFS at 96 is better than 6z and 00z but still think its not disrupting the trough to our west enough and has it slightly too north. We shall see.

I wouldn't worry about any GFS run until we are back into a positive AO/NAO situation. 

The whole GFS model suite has failed miserably and continues be a day or two behind in these blocky periods.

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gfsnh-1-114.png?12

You can clearly see how it is prolonging the cold day by day.

gfsnh-1-120.png?6

 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

this is looking much better from GFS

gfsnh-0-120.png?12

The theme is good, I'm not to worried what happens from now on. Cold spell lengthening.

I apologise for my incorrect hasty early post. I should know better :oops:

haha...likewise....but i think the earlier progression helped it develop better for us....but still knife-edge stuff

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At T138 on GFS there's a 10mb difference in pressure over the UK from its previous run.....  it may be trending somewhere but it's not settled!

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Temperatures under that high will absolutely bItter. Major backtrack from the GFS.

gfs-0-150.png?12

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