South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[festivalking]

Alas WG  it was not me waving to you on the Moor. Mind you it was pretty Chocker up above the snow line. Getting nice and nippy now.

Edited February 14, 2016 by festivalking

[Mapantz]

I've found a nice site that shows everybodys Netatmo climate data around the world.

http://climategraphs.info/

 

[Zephyr]

 

So close yet so far

[Frosty hollows]

-2.1c here, but precipitation too far to the east. Think my snow has been restricted to a slightly sleety shower a few days back

[festivalking]

0.5c and dropping. Lovely night out.

[Zephyr]

Maybe a bit of snow for the far east of our region on the back edge of the front, nothing to get hopes up for now though. lol.

[Zephyr]

Slight upgrade on the 00z GFS? Don't want to get drawn in to it lol

 

+78

 

+81

 

 

+84

 

 

 

[knocker]

Morning campers

Clear morning here with temp of 5c and wind NE 15mph gusting 30mph.

The great debate for Weds continues apace, I believe its been referred to the UN, and still isn't resolved and I doubt it will be until Weds. At 12z the fax chart has the triple point over Cardiff so for the SW the METO says this.

Quote

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Rain and strong winds arrive Wednesday, perhaps with sleet and snow at first. Drier and brighter Thursday, with isolated wintry showers likely. Wet and windy Friday, with hill snow.

The GFS on the other has back end snow on the front so you can see what I mean. You know what I think of model precip details but for what they are worth.

At 18z Weds the ecm has the front Devon -Northumberland with a shallow low South Wales. It weakens as it moves SE but some snow west Midlands and NE/SE from Bristol.

Edited February 15, 2016 by knocker

[jethro]

Morning, clear, cold, frosty start to the day here with a lovely blue sky  Will it snow this week? I believe it might.

[Frosty hollows]

Morning all. I won't expect snow living in the land snow forgot, but if we do get some I'll be very happy.

Bright and sunny morning. Moderate frost. Currently -3.1 but with the sun up that'll rise pretty quickly. Looks alike a lovely day thus far. And it will be so long as I don't venture into snow forecasting threads. 

*Must resist. Must resist*

[Nights King]

So I see it is all upgrades this morning...  It won't happen! 

You heard it hear first. 

[Bobd29]

Just just might be worth a little trip up to Salisbury Plain Weds/Thurs to see if the long deserted Snow Gods have paid a visit ahead of their planned return next winter.......?

[festivalking]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Morning campers

Clear morning here with temp of 5c and wind NE 15mph gusting 30mph.

The great debate for Weds continues apace, I believe its been referred to the UN, and still isn't resolved and I doubt it will be until Weds. At 12z the fax chart has the triple point over Cardiff so for the SW the METO says this.

The GFS on the other has back end snow on the front so you can see what I mean. You know what I think of model precip details but for what they are worth.

At 18z Weds the ecm has the front Devon -Northumberland with a shallow low South Wales. It weakens as it moves SE but some snow west Midlands and NE/SE from Bristol.

Is that triple point liable to drop further south? If so interest levels will somewhat rise!

[Kiwi]

4 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Is that triple point liable to drop further south? If so interest levels will somewhat rise!

Too often the rain snow boundary seems to follow the M4 corridor.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Is that triple point liable to drop further south? If so interest levels will somewhat rise!

At the moment yes

With the occlusion meandering east or maybe even stalling. But this is very tricky and I can't see it being resolved until very close to the time. Suffice it to say there are some possibilities particularly to the east and higher ground.

[offerman]

 Ian Ferguson said on Twitter heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday for the west country .  No snow or sleet mentioned so sorry to disappoint everyone .  I am a snow lover too, but we have to be realistic and that is what the guy said.

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, offerman said:

 Ian Ferguson said on Twitter heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday for the west country .  No snow or sleet mentioned so sorry to disappoint everyone .  I am a snow lover too, but we have to be realistic and that is what the guy said.

Well that's it then, no point in looking at any other information source... 

 

Meanwhile, frosty start this morning though not as cold last night as I thought it might be, perhaps because of the breeze. Only a light scrape of the windscreens.

[knocker]

As far as I'm aware Ian is a long way from being definitive about Weds.

Quote

Yup. Equally, the W'ward shift in snow signal overnight (eg 00z EC, which progs more southern reach of snow risk especially Midlands/E Wales/approx down to M4 and across to Chilterns). Either way, PPN rate will be critical component given sensitivity in this set-up to PPN phase. A key point here is to distinguish between the now moderate likelihood of some areas further south in England seeing snow *falling* versus settling. Likelihood of latter currently looks much lower in HRes accumulation products: mostly above 200m but generally patchy/slight in nature. Tricky all-round. 

 

[karlos1983]

Meanwhile (in a Jezza style)

the GFs continues to raise eyebrows for the south midweek 

I'd take a 6 hour snow event. 

Edited February 15, 2016 by karlos1983

[AWD]

29 minutes ago, offerman said:

 Ian Ferguson said on Twitter heavy rain Tuesday and Wednesday for the west country .  No snow or sleet mentioned so sorry to disappoint everyone .  I am a snow lover too, but we have to be realistic and that is what the guy said.

I can't find any recent tweets but my Twitter has been playing up.

Was that tweet made this morning?

[festivalking]

26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Meanwhile (in a Jezza style)

the GFs continues to raise eyebrows for the south midweek 

I'd take a 6 hour snow event. 

Not sure if you can take another downgrade dear chap!

[karlos1983]

I'm just happy that we are not far from being able to put this winter to bed once and for all. I was able to get out and dig my holes for my deck yesterday and get 5 posts concreted in, so I'm feeling good about Spring and Summer. 

 Anything midweek of the wintry variety would just be a bonus.

next winter can't be as bad as the past 3 can it.......surely 

[Frosty hollows]

There is a snow icon on my metO forecast for Thursday. 

 

Expecting imminent downgrades..

[offerman]

2 hours ago, MP-R said:

Well that's it then, no point in looking at any other information source... 

 

Meanwhile, frosty start this morning though not as cold last night as I thought it might be, perhaps because of the breeze. Only a light scrape of the windscreens.

Yes, you're right, seems that way.

[offerman]

2 hours ago, AWD said:

I can't find any recent tweets but my Twitter has been playing up.

Was that tweet made this morning?

Hi Awd, i googled IF on twitter as im not on it. 

It was the latest post show that i could see.