South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Nights King]

Latest forecast I just watched looked poor it clears our region around night fall just as it starts to turn 

[Mapantz]

Nice and sunny today. Hard frost this morning, with a low of -3.5°C

Temp: 8.5°C - Hum: 51% - Dew: -1.1°C - Bar: 1032.84hPa - Wind:  S/SSW @ 6mph.

I have a splitting headache today, It's rare for me to get one- a snow headache perhaps?   

Edited February 16, 2016 by Mapantz

[Zephyr]

 

[Andy Bown]

1 hour ago, warmintim said:

Sometimes, but rarely we get to see the snowline and I have a hunch this might be one of those occasions. I recall a couple of winters ago Cley Hill (near Warminster) had a distinct white top, but nothing at lower levels. I've also seen it on the hills above Westbury/Warminster. Looking at lots of available info this may be the case again. 

I also recall one night driving back in the rain from Frome to Warminster and going up into the snow when climbing up near Lane End (a rise of around 30 mtrs). Useless snow really - slushy and gone in under an hour, but right now I'd take that to at least marginally redeem this awful El Nino winter...

 

I can see Cley Hill from my upstairs windows Tim, fully expecting Thursday to be the first time in about 3 years that it's been white up there! However when I lived in Westbury I had a great vista of the Western edge of Salisbury Plain and that very often had a clear snow line.

[Rich_Clements]

2 hours ago, Nights King said:

Yes glouc and wilts maybe but somerset bristol and Dorset might see a couple of wet flakes before it clears we need it to grind to halt further west. 

High Ground North and east of Bath (Cotswolds) should be good

[MrNooo]

I have a fear that it'll push too far East, whatever happened to Westward corrections, doesn't look like it's going to stall either unless over the East side of the country. Still we'll all know in a day or two!!

[knocker]

The Sc of earlier has given way to medium cloud Ac/As as the system pushes in from the west. Temp 8C and wind SSW 17 mph

[Mapantz]

Talk of heavier precip helping to keep falling snow, AS snow, instead of turning to rain on the way down. I may be barking up the wrong tree, but instead of evaporative cooling, I wonder if the heavier precip will help pull down the 0 degree isotherm to lower levels?!

Looking at the GFS 700hPa Vorticity charts, they show strong PVA around the wash, down in to the Home Counties. This sometimes helps gauge where heavier precip may be likely to fall.

Obviously, we cannot say the GFS is correct, and I can't say i'm right by looking at it from this view point. It might be worth looking at forecast soundings tomorrow, that would be a good aid to see what the conditions are like vertically. @knocker might be able to help on that?!

Edited February 16, 2016 by Mapantz

[kent]

2 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Nice and sunny today. Hard frost this morning, with a low of -3.5°C

Temp: 8.5°C - Hum: 51% - Dew: -1.1°C - Bar: 1032.84hPa - Wind:  S/SSW @ 6mph.

I have a splitting headache today, It's rare for me to get one- a snow headache perhaps?   

Maybe if you climb up on top of Corfe Castle you might get a flake lol. Hope youre feeling better if you read this. Cheers .

[chris55]

2 hours ago, Rich_Clements said:

High Ground North and east of Bath (Cotswolds) should be good

An Eastington member  Just head up to Uley or Selsley if its hill snow eh.

I used to live in Eastington, now in Stroud at about 75m asl.

Will be interesting to see how tomorrow night unfolds. To be honest I reckon with such a finely balanced forecast it will be a nowcasting event.

[Somersetwatcher]

....I really must try not to get drawn in by the mod thread next autumn.... They're still at it wrt this ebbing winter but, personally, I'm sure it's futile now (happy to be wrong tho) but I have spent hours following various interpretations trying to learn something on the way, but in hindsight there seems to be so much hope casting intertwined with the more knowledgeable posts. I find it difficult to filter and understand properly. Sometimes you'd think the models actually controlled the weather the way some posters 'talk'. I love winter weather, but I also love the spring and summer more. 

[Dorsetbred]

I cant believe it, just like Somerset watcher I popped into the MAD zone before dropping in here. I cannot believe it's still ripe with "Winter is 7-10 days away" (note my summary not a quote of any member). I've stayed out for weeks and think the time to return in late March / start of April, when all the "IS IT, WILL IT, OF COURSE IT WILL WONT do x,y or Z.

Back here, the cloud has continued to roll i today holding the temperatures up for tonight. Really crisp fresh start to the day this morning, noticeable how the light is ever creeping to increasing before 7AM.

[MrNooo]

1 hour ago, chris55 said:

An Eastington member  Just head up to Uley or Selsley if its hill snow eh.

Yes, you should be able to see the snow on the Black mountains!!!

[Bristawl Si]

Latest Beeb forecast just now on tv - NO snow for our region.

Even the SE is only going to get a "wintry mix" late tom.

I've just administered the last rites to Winter 15/16.

[karlos1983]

I have even found myself get sucked in again, but I do really think it is now time

 

 

[Theresnoway]

Indeed! Just watched the latest http://www.gavsweathervids.com/snowwatch.html and not one model suggest much settling snow down south, even for the south east.

Always time for upgrades, but not holding my breath.

Anyhooo, at least we have some cold rain to look forward to :-(

[kent]

3 minutes ago, Theresnoway said:

Indeed! Just watched the latest http://www.gavsweathervids.com/snowwatch.html and not one model suggest much settling snow down south, even for the south east.

Always time for upgrades, but not holding my breath.

Anyhooo, at least we have some cold rain to look forward to :-(

 

[kent]

Currently a balmy 6.6 here, the rain coming could be warm lol'

[Frosty hollows]

2c here. MetO still have snow warning in place for my area for tomorrow night. Only time will tell...

[Singularity]

Well, the leading front is currently more toward a N-S alignment than the models were going for, which suggests the cold air across England and Wales is proving harder to shift than expected.

It seems a crazy idea but the central UK stall scenario may not be entirely dead yet. I'm not getting my hopes up though!

[Zephyr]

Euro4, rain. ARPEGE, rain.... Sooo when's spring?!

[Mapantz]

13 minutes ago, Zephyr said:

Euro4, rain. ARPEGE, rain.... Sooo when's spring?!

May as well throw these bandwidth-robbers in as well..

[Sperrin]

None of the models were showing snow for us in Western Ulster but it's been snowing heavily here for last hour, lying well too. Perhaps a good omen for you guys in England?

[Polar Bear]

On 7 February 2016 at 9:29 PM, John88B said:

5 hours ago, Sperrin said:

None of the models were showing snow for us in Western Ulster but it's been snowing heavily here for last hour, lying well too. Perhaps a good omen for you guys in England?

Well looked out this morn and guess what? .. Nothing . Looks as though maybe the fun is further north? Doubt anything will happen later either. Oh well it was nice to just think we may have some white stuff. Have a good day all. 

[knocker]

Cloudy here this morning slight rain. Temp 7.5C and wind SSW 25mph gusting 35.

The passage of The Front looks very much being a non event snow wise which doesn't come as a big surprise. The Camborne 00z ascent is warm and very moist above the low level inversion with the warm front just to the west and  not particularly cold air underneath which portends a wet day for most of the region. Even in the far NE things are looking very marginal and maybe depends on rear-edge flurries as the colder air sneaks in.

Edited February 17, 2016 by knocker