South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

6 minutes ago, festivalking said:

This post comes with a public health warning. The following bandwidth wasting images might cause random acts of despair, guffawing, insane laughter, tutting or acts of violence against electrical devices..........but

 

and at only 4 days away 

I think GFS has been on the gin!

[Singularity]

Latest obs of interest;

Leading edge of front in line with AROME 06z but back edge further east than expected. Implies faster occlusion than expected with cold air from NW advancing faster relative to frontal boundary.

Precipitation rates generally a little higher than expected.

Squally feature across the SW more vigorous than even the highest resolution AROME predicted. This in theory being the focal point for falling snow chances tonight across CS England.

 

Infer from that what you will... 

[Mapantz]

14 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Precipitation rates generally a little higher than expected.

It depends which models you look at on that one..

The GFS and NMM look pretty much spot on, although the NMM may have overdone it slightly.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Mapantz

[Kiwi]

26 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Latest obs of interest;

Leading edge of front in line with AROME 06z but back edge further east than expected. Implies faster occlusion than expected with cold air from NW advancing faster relative to frontal boundary.

Precipitation rates generally a little higher than expected.

Squally feature across the SW more vigorous than even the highest resolution AROME predicted. This in theory being the focal point for falling snow chances tonight across CS England.

 

Infer from that what you will... 

My Inference is that I will see snow late tonight. (My grip on reality has slipped further and further this winter) 

What could possibly go wrong?

[Zephyr]

Ice at best for us... 

 

Edited February 17, 2016 by Zephyr

[John88B]

The latest posted on Fergies twitter.

W COUNTRY After a milder phase this weekend, there's evidence for an extended period of below-normal temps rest of Feb into early-mid March.

So hopefully a few more shots at some nice wintery weather before winter is out.

[jethro]

What a grim old day, it's been a Marti Pellow day, not a glimmer of white. Can't see that changing around here tonight although I still think there's a chance the Cotswolds may see some snow, at least falling, if not settling.

Seems Sunday may now offer hope of snow....oh joy, more teases. I'm soooooooo bored with these vague glimmers of hope, just sodding snow or bugger off altogether winter. Personally keeping my fingers crossed a big (but isolated) volcano goes boom in September, might then stand half a hope of actually getting a winter next year.

Edited February 17, 2016 by jethro

[Glenosnow]

6 minutes ago, jethro said:

What a grim old day, it's been a Marti Pellow day, not a glimmer of white. Can't see that changing around here tonight although I still think there's a chance the Cotswolds may see some snow, at least falling, if not settling.

Seems Sunday may now offer hope of snow....oh joy, more teases. I'm soooooooo bored with these vague glimmers of hope, just sodding snow or bugger off altogether winter. Personally keeping my fingers crossed a big (but isolated) volcano goes boom in September, might then stand half a hope of actually getting a winter next year.

Even if we did have a freeze it would only end up as ash knowing our luck.....

[Climate_Eyes]

Ash falling from the sky would at least make a change from rain, and look more seasonal.

Temperature here has been fairly static for the last seven hours, hovering between 5-6^oC, DP up to 3.8^oC.

 

Soggy.

 

 

 

 

[jethro]

Ash would be fine, it would wash away, give the garden a good dose of potash in the process too. What we need is a huge sulphur dioxide injection high up in the atmosphere, then it would snow. Here's hoping all those forecasts of a deep, prolonged solar minimum come true, quite happy for The Little Ice Age to be repeated.

[festivalking]

Back edge of the rain band clearing dartmoor and on the highest points e.g 2000ft its just rain/sleet.

[Frosty_wsm]

47 minutes ago, John88B said:

The latest posted on Fergies twitter.

W COUNTRY After a milder phase this weekend, there's evidence for an extended period of below-normal temps rest of Feb into early-mid March.

So hopefully a few more shots at some nice wintery weather before winter is out.

Hopefully that doesn't mean just more cold rain for our keck of the woods for the rest of Feb when any weather fronts are around! 

[Mapantz]

While not the most pleasant of days, there's been hardly any rain, nowhere near what the models projected  for most of our region (unless you're in the far SW)

A bizarre day to say the least.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Mapantz

[dec10snow]

 

1 hour ago, John88B said:

The latest posted on Fergies twitter.

W COUNTRY After a milder phase this weekend, there's evidence for an extended period of below-normal temps rest of Feb into early-mid March.

So hopefully a few more shots at some nice wintery cold rain before winter is out.

Fixed that last bit of your post for you 

[dec10snow]

3 hours ago, festivalking said:

This post comes with a public health warning. The following bandwidth wasting images might cause random acts of despair, guffawing, insane laughter, tutting or acts of violence against electrical devices..........but

 

and at only 4 days away 

Waheyyyyyyyy another downgrade hunt 

 

Edit: On a more serious note, what is the GFS even on?! I'm down for 12C and rain on Sunday

Edited February 17, 2016 by dec10snow

[Mapantz]

A few moderate bursts of rain at the moment. Up to 7.2mm now.

Some nice sunshine returning tomorrow!

[kent]

Below normal doesn't necessarily mean cold enough for snow. Personally I don't think I can stomach another lengthy marginal event of long distance non verification charts. Rather see some promise of an early spring.

[Nights King]

What a Joke!

4.9c and ppn is just heading out, not even marginally close on top of Mendips for snow.

 

Forecasts are all out too they have rain/sleet/snow clearing somerset bristol area around the mid night mark but it is clearing at 6pm  

 

Edited February 17, 2016 by Nights King

[Mapantz]

It's belting down here now! I didn't expect that..

[karlos1983]

Yeah same, just had to peep out the door, bucketing it down 

 

[SilverWolf]

Look on the bright side everyone - a quick trip to the Model Discussion will reveal a real chance of cold and snow in 10 days time, I'm sure of it. It has all winter after all! 

[karlos1983]

Shame it's not a bit colder, as my temperature is dropping off pretty rapidly now in this very heavy rain with no wind at all

[The Enforcer]

Maximum has only been 4.8C, which is lower than I expected. However, at 7pm it is now only 4.5C, so would need to crash rapidly in the next few hours to have even a slight chance of a change to snow.

[Dorsetbred]

16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Shame it's not a bit colder, as my temperature is dropping off pretty rapidly now in this very heavy rain with no wind at all

Strange, as it's been 6C here all day and now it's down to 5.4C as the wind has turned to the NW, but it's only dropping by 0.2C / hour, so I wouldn't call it evaporative cooling (I know you didn't).

 

[Mapantz]

Can't fault the Netatmo rainfall forecast.