Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...


Methuselah

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Well I just arrived home to a chilly house... turned heating off last night around 12 mid night and just turned it on again now because oil is rather low and damn the insulation on this house is shocking! :cold::cold-emoji:

20160115_174916.thumb.jpg.777f22eb19797f

Edited by Nights King
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: E.Devon, nr Colyton
  • Location: E.Devon, nr Colyton

Stunning evening walk with the dog under an inky blue and then inky black sky. Crystal clear starry skies. Wind has died right down. Saw the gritter out for first time in a long time. Met Office say -4c in parts. Still hoping for a rogue snow shower! Proper winter weather.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

I see lots of excitement at snow prospects for Monday in mod thread but strangely enough the west country is rain :wallbash:

I know it is early and can change but I would rather see that corrected west by a fair margin for us to stand a chance. :cc_confused:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester

I'm thinking it'll correct Westward and we'll be in with a good chance, with luck. Not sure the charts are terribly reliable with FI being 48hrs if that, they are so diverse currently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL

Well those showers have been sucked up by our dear Welch friend Henry :nonono::rofl:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Just now, Nights King said:

Well those showers have been sucked up by our dear Welch friend Henry :nonono::rofl:

For a second there, I though you were referring to Raquel.:yahoo:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester
  • Location: Ampney Crucis, Nr. Cirencester

Just had a very light one here, 1 degree showing on my thermo and yet it was rain, no sleet or snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
5 minutes ago, MrNooo said:

Just had a very light one here, 1 degree showing on my thermo and yet it was rain, no sleet or snow.

I hope it didn't melt your snow cover? :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire
  • Location: Warminster, Wiltshire

Further to the lunchtime forecast showing 5c with light rain, Ian's 18.55 forecast showed Monday as 4c with heavy rain with him stressing the big uncertainty. If Ian is reading, do you think 4c (which I assume is the max across the region) with heavy rain was playing it safe?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Weather Preferences: Any
  • Location: Portsmouth

Sorry but I'm a bit confused where has all this rain in the near future just appeared from with temps the way they are is this to do with ex tropical storm Alex ?? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl

Oh blimey even Sunday now has turned into a wet dank (yes dank) afternoon. I think the chase for me for being snowed in is done for this spell. Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow and then back to hunting down the next lot of cold weather. Never know I might do a flip tomorrow like the models.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
13 minutes ago, festivalking said:

Oh blimey even Sunday now has turned into a wet dank (yes dank) afternoon. I think the chase for me for being snowed in is done for this spell. Enjoy the sunshine tomorrow and then back to hunting down the next lot of cold weather. Never know I might do a flip tomorrow like the models.

 

I think your being a little premature? :D

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
9 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Key uncertainties begin from T+84. It's impossible to gauge outcome on regional level. MOGREPS has snow risk Taunton eastwards for SW/W Country by Monday; WBFL modelling by then considered highly unreliable as for now are UKMO Best Data Tmin/Max as shown via BBC graphics. A concerted W'ly push across all the south Sun night-Mon night only rated 30% prob at present. Rebuild of cold block W'wards into Tues complicates matters enormously. Some folk on forums are doubtless slavishly following/making rash pronouncements based on modelled 850hPa temps as the singular 'snow line' delineation but it's not: the higher Theta-W's will *override* cold boundary layer, offering a very difficult forecast mix ranging from rain-sleet-snow and, moreover, profiles suggestive of freezing rain in places, too. PPN phase algorithms (eg snow charts from EC, GFS, ARPEGE etc) won't synthesise these nuances at all well - yet - due to their granularity and the ongoing output uncertainty at that range. However, currently a fair signal for fronts generally weakening as they run east, and only a minority of ENS presently offer *significant* snow amounts (these in central-E UK where cold air may linger much of the week, whilst W/SW back earlier to average/above average temps). So, fun and games looking likely for my forecast colleagues Sun eve on into Mon, but thankfully I'm not having to deal with this headache until back on shift later Monday!!

 

Thanks ian.

I am sure I remember snow with 850's as high as+1c over the Mendips a few years back with a cold continental feed in a marginal setup.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
5 hours ago, dancing daisy said:

I showed the kids the rain today site and told them all about snow forecasting, they weren't interested, bloody 5 year olds! I miss my year 6s, they loved a good old snow ramp and radar watching was always on in the background of every lesson.  

So what's the latest in snowville? 

I'm glad I'm not the only one who treats their pupils to snow watching!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters/Hot summers
  • Location: Isle Of Wight - Newport

Not expecting much for us down south over the next few days, but I have a feeling late January early February our time will come.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Not accurate as many say, but the SW looks like tomorrow night may have a chance of a little snow on the latest run - a bit better than the last run anyway.

image.png

image.png

image.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

And Monday's front doesn't quite get beyond Bristol , if this front does get over towards central England, then gets pushed back some of us may get a very snowy Monday - I hope.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
  • Weather Preferences: The fabled channel low
  • Location: Dousland, South Dartmoor 205 m/asl
1 hour ago, Nights King said:

 

I think your being a little premature? :D

:).....well after fergies post I might reconsider... (must say what a top chap for posting in here)

Edited by festivalking
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness

Why is the rain:snow line always on the same NW-SE trajectory?

16011706_1512.thumb.gif.d1a9df901406212a

Even in the middle of a high pressure, I get forecast rain. Bugger off, I want the frost that has been promised for Sunday night.

Temperature not getting below freezing here so far this evening for some inexplicable reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
34 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Why is the rain:snow line always on the same NW-SE trajectory?

16011706_1512.thumb.gif.d1a9df901406212a

Even in the middle of a high pressure, I get forecast rain. Bugger off, I want the frost that has been promised for Sunday night.

Temperature not getting below freezing here so far this evening for some inexplicable reason.

I'm just down the road from you and we dipped below freezing about 6pm, but warmed up an hour later. We do seem to be the land weather forgets. Except frost.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and sunny or cold and snowy. Nothing inbetween.
  • Location: Work: Near Glasto Home: near Puriton

oooh! Starting to think we may get some snow at centerparcs then! Unless the models flip yet again overnight (most likely scenario) I'm bloody freezing here in our cabin, must go and buy logs for the fire tomorrow :cold:. This certainly is a very interesting period of model watching... Jeez.. It's like me on the rapids earlier..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
16 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I'm just down the road from you and we dipped below freezing about 6pm, but warmed up an hour later. We do seem to be the land weather forgets. Except frost.

We got down to -0.5c earlier but now 0.3c as cloud moved in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...