South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat, 6th December and Onwards...

[Bristawl Si]

Cheers Mapantz.

Been absolutely lashing it down here and has been for a large part of the day from late morning.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Latest ECM run looks good according to the MOD thread haha until the pub run tonight when no doubt it'll go downhill.

[Frosty hollows]

2 hours ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

Really beefy showers all afternoon, hail mixed in. The water is pouring down off the moors.

Can't give any technical detail I'm afraid. I asked santa for a weather station for Christmas but he got me an iMac instead, so I'm really not complaining. Trouble is my birthday isn't until July. 

I got a weather station from Santa. Probably doesn't qualify me to comment on the MOD thread though !

[Frosty hollows]

Been a lot windier here than I'd expected. Had a good post xmas clear out of crap,placed it by the bins and some has ended up annoying my neighbours. Oooppss!

 

[Mapantz]

The temp has plummeted here, during this shower.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Makes me laugh in the MOD thread all the people biased towards their own location! Unless it benefits them then its rubbish lol. 

I'm praying we get a channel low and it stalls over Wales and the SW!

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Makes me laugh in the MOD thread all the people biased towards their own location! Unless it benefits them then its rubbish lol. 

I'm praying we get a channel low and it stalls over Wales and the SW!

I posted in there for the first time in a long while & it just caused IMBYISM posts so I think I'll step back on the side lines again for now.

Lots of detail to be dissected yet re potential snowfall late next week.  A lot more observing to do than just looking at 850hpa temps as they are in the MOD thread.

FWIW, for our region, colder embedded air is needed for wintriness down here.  I'm sure Knockers charts will show any potential snowline north rather than south of the M4.

[Jackfrost]

We in Wales and the Southwest tend to be the forgotten ones when it comes to discussion of snow potential in the MOD thread. I would definitely be in support of merging the Wales and SW&CS England threads - it's the best part of England, after all! - so that we can all band together. I can see the North Devon coast if I walk to the top of one of the nearby hills and my family is descended from Somersetters who moved here during the industrial revolution, so we even have personal connections to the West Country in South Wales. 

I expect there'd be opposition to my merging idea from both Southwesterners and the Welsh though!

[Frosty_wsm]

Apparently according to a post on the mod thread about some ecm charts that aren't freely available, they  show most of the uk with lying snow by the end of this coming week, have a guess what area is shown to have none. 

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Apparently according to a post on the mod thread about some ecm charts that aren't freely available, they  show most of the uk with lying snow by the end of this coming week, have a guess what area is shown to have none. 

The area south & west of the M4?

[Bristawl Si]

We usually need at least a couple of days of daytime temps at or near freezing before precipitation arrives to give us snow.

A nice cold easterly or south easterly before a LP system approaches from south west only then to veer east along the channel or a slider going SE thru Ireland and slicing just south of our region.

[knocker]

We are not the only ones missing out. The main snowfall on the ecm occurs on the shortwave which runs from N.Ireland  SE across the country to be Ramsgate 1004mb by 1800 on Thursday. The main area of snow is in the eastern half of the country running south from Durham to Reading, including E. Anglia, with a small wodge in Kent and Sussex. It's all really a little academic as this scenario wont verify and in any case model snowfall is a complete waste of time. It's hard enough for professional forecasters even 24hrs prior to the event.

Edited January 9, 2016 by knocker

[Stormyking]

How cool and bizarre, line of precipitation over us now falling as Light-Moderate Hail, love it!

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

We are not the only ones missing out. The main snowfall on the ecm occurs on the shortwave which runs from N.Ireland  SE across the country to be Ramsgate 1004mb by 1800 on Thursday. The main area of snow is in the eastern half of the country running south from Durham to Reading, including E. Anglia, with a small wodge in Kent and Sussex. It's all really a little academic as this scenario wont verify and in any case model snowfall is a complete waste of time. It's hard enough for professional forecasters even 24hrs prior to the event.

Dare you to copy that post into the MOD thread.  lol.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, AWD said:

Dare you to copy that post into the MOD thread.  lol.

Where angels fear to tread.............................

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

We are not the only ones missing out. The main snowfall on the ecm occurs on the shortwave which runs from N.Ireland  SE across the country to be Ramsgate 1004mb by 1800 on Thursday. The main area of snow is in the eastern half of the country running south from Durham to Reading, including E. Anglia, with a small wodge in Kent and Sussex. It's all really a little academic as this scenario wont verify and in any case model snowfall is a complete waste of time. It's hard enough for professional forecasters even 24hrs prior to the event.

Correct. Bearing in mind MOGREPS earlier today for the same timestamp (by 18z Thurs) had amongst it's 23 members either little snow of note or an alternative of W Country/Wilts/Oxon getting totally plastered, so no such prognosis as carried by EC 12z for Thurs has any real notable confidence at such range, deterministically. Equally, UKMO-GM is quite different to the parallel suite UKMO-GM re handling of low to south on Thurs. The latest EC-ENS show a discernible but muddied upward trend in temps into early next week onwards, but with considerable spread. Given the most populated cluster of EC 12z has the UK under a strong NE'ly by T+360, yet other clustering has us W/SW'ly... you get the picture. It's a mess, and we've been cautioning on any slavish model-myopia for a few days now. Whilst the majority signal shows a trend to less cold weather with +ve MSLP close to or over S'rn UK, this has low confidence and don't expect resolution soon.

Models don't handle extremes well. What's been happening polar-wise has indeed been extreme...!

Edited January 9, 2016 by fergieweather

[Mark Neal.]

Thanks for still posting in here Ian, much appreciated!

 

[bellanite]

Really don't envy you guys trying to decipher the models at the moment. Interesting times ahead!

[William Grimsley]

3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

Cheers. 
I'm using their API which is free from http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/datapoint
You get a special key to provide the overlay data, then you need an API key from Google, for the maps.

 

Seem to be missing all the showers, amazingly. lol

Had some strong gusts of wind though, 40mph one just a moment ago- isn't too shabby for here.

Ahh, about time! You seem to be getting all the downpours! ROFL! Yeah, we had some beasty ones today I tell ya and to add in the hail, thunder and lightning and strong winds with a high wind gust of 43 mph at 16:03, it was a great day! Long may it continue *if it was going to...*.

Edited January 9, 2016 by William Grimsley

[knocker]

50 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Correct. Bearing in mind MOGREPS earlier today for the same timestamp (by 18z Thurs) had amongst it's 23 members either little snow of note or an alternative of W Country/Wilts/Oxon getting totally plastered, so no such prognosis as carried by EC 12z for Thurs has any real notable confidence at such range, deterministically. Equally, UKMO-GM is quite different to the parallel suite UKMO-GM re handling of low to south on Thurs. The latest EC-ENS show a discernible but muddied upward trend in temps into early next week onwards, but with considerable spread. Given the most populated cluster of EC 12z has the UK under a strong NE'ly by T+360, yet other clustering has us W/SW'ly... you get the picture. It's a mess, and we've been cautioning on any slavish model-myopia for a few days now. Whilst the majority signal shows a trend to less cold weather with +ve MSLP close to or over S'rn UK, this has low confidence and don't expect resolution soon.

Models don't handle extremes well. What's been happening polar-wise has indeed been extreme...!

Thanks for that update Ian. I've been watching the anomalies quite closely and they have consistently been plugging +ve MSLP close to or over S'rn UK, But given the chaotic nature at the moment and that they are means I note your caution of low confidence and am not totally surprised.

[Argyle1980]

Just had a heavy hail shower pass over Truro turning the road white for a short while .

enjoy the next week of weather, many suprises are just around the corner!

[Stormyking]

Some of these individual showers behind this line is interesting me more, I wouldnt be surprise if some of these overnight let out the odd flash and rumble. Just had a very heavy burst here.

 

[alijoe]

4 hours ago, Jackfrost said:

We in Wales and the Southwest tend to be the forgotten ones when it comes to discussion of snow potential in the MOD thread. I would definitely be in support of merging the Wales and SW&CS England threads - it's the best part of England, after all! - so that we can all band together. I can see the North Devon coast if I walk to the top of one of the nearby hills and my family is descended from Somersetters who moved here during the industrial revolution, so we even have personal connections to the West Country in South Wales. 

I expect there'd be opposition to my merging idea from both Southwesterners and the Welsh though!

Totally agree. I am a Bristolian living just over the severn bridge in Magor and I would love the merging idea as well. ;-)     Fingers crossed we will all get lucky (if it is snow you like) at least sometime this winter.  

[steveh19]

Not holding out much hope of any snow in my neck of the woods. It's only winter I dislike living where I do. Summers aren't too bad. Would love to see some snow though. 

[MidnightSnow]

Some eye candy To be taken with a pinch of salt of course! I just love these types of charts.

I'm just happy there's potential for snow next week.