Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, LeeSnowFan said:

Still not updated still the 1.27am update!

Yes that's what I thought but cant always be sure, sometimes sites don't refresh for me when other people clearly have more up to date info, the ECM London ENS are an example of this, they only update if I refresh twice!

[Methuselah]

And what a slating they'd get, in here, had they'd 'come on board' and forecast frost-fairs, only for reality to produce a three-day toppler?

Edited January 7, 2016 by Ed Stone

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And what a slating they'd get, in here, had they'd 'come on board' and forecast frost-fairs, only for reality to produce a three-day toppler?

Yes although I have to say i am a bit more worried when they don't mention cold as deep or long lasting as models show nowadays as the last 3 years they have massively improved and tended to be far more  proactive than reactive, they have been pretty much faultless in winter, probably because of the GLOSEA5 upgrade, i cant speak for summer because i don't follow their updates religiously.

Edited January 7, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Liam J]

So they've said a cold spell is coming, frosts & snow mentioned and also hinting the cold weather may prove hard to shift, sounds good to me, they provide public forecasts and are usually conservative, at least until likelihood is very high, the proper cold isn't forecast until later NEXT week and we've seen things go boobs up within that sort of time frame before! Really not surprised to see a cautious approach at this stage... Can you imagine if they went all out forecasting severe cold and snow next week removing any possibility of alternate weather type in the forecast, and then it didn't materialise?!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Silly question,but what is the UKMO we see. Mogreps? Glosea5? A blend of those 2 or something else?

Do you mean the UKMO global model that goes out to 144 / 168?, no - the 3 are all separate models, the MOGREPS is similar to the ECM And GFS ensembles, its there to give guidance in the 6-15 day range (no one knows how good it is though but i suspect its up there with the ECM eps), GLOSEA5 is a seasonal model, mainly used to build up a probability picture in the 15 day - 3 month period (used in their contingency planners forecasts), they also use the EC32 which goes out to 32 days, also used to 'finish off' their monthly update, all medium - long range models are ensembles suites, a single op run would have little value at those ranges.

[Isabellesnanny]

BBC  forecast just said little snow, mostly dry next week - not quite what I am reading on the Mod thread. 

[Polar Maritime]

3 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

BBC  forecast just said little snow, mostly dry next week - not quite what I am reading on the Mod thread. 

 Northerly's will always be dry and cold but predicting where snow will fall at this range is all on impossible!

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, Isabellesnanny said:

BBC  forecast just said little snow, mostly dry next week - not quite what I am reading on the Mod thread. 

Which would be great news for the flooded regions! And snow isn't easy to forecast within 24-48hrs never mind a week! Cold first then snow second...

[January Snowstorm]

I suppose what some choose to ignore is the above......lengthy dry spells.

To flooded areas that is far greater news than whether it snows or not

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

Which would be great news for the flooded regions! And snow isn't easy to forecast within 24-48hrs never mind a week! Cold first then snow second...

True but they wouldn't forecast dry if they didn't believe it, they must be aware as pros that PPN can pop up at short notice but they don't believe so in terms of any significance else they would express PPN uncertainties, they obviously don't think the 500mb - 850mb profile is unstable enough,

 

2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I suppose what some choose to ignore is the above......lengthy dry spells.

To flooded areas that is far greater news than whether it snows or not

Shouldn't stop people who aren't flooded and want PPN expressing their views.

[Methuselah]

25 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

 Northerly's will always be dry and cold but predicting where snow will fall at this range is all on impossible!

Exactly: apart from an increased likelihood, in favoured areas (Northern Isles, North-facing coastal regions in Scotland and England, attempting detail would be foolhardy at best (even for us on here); but, the MetO being two-flakes' short of Snowmageddon...and it's endless wittering-on about 'tax-subsidized super computers'!

[Weather Observer]

Lots of snow everywhere in my opinion. This is based on my reading of old weather journals, rather than what the charts show.

it seems that very cold snowy weather often follows on from a very wet spell. A couple of examples were the extremely cold 1739/40 which followed a wet Autumn. In January 1776 we are told that the first week was "uncommonly wet, and drowned with vast rains from every quarter.....from whence may be inferred that intense frost  seldom takes place until the earth is glutted and filled with water". Then came the snow and by the 14th the narrow roads were filled with snow to the hedge tops.

Could this arise when a persistent upper trough to our west sets up shop further east? Just a thought.

[LeeSnowFan]

 

 

[snowangel32]

Great to see the MET are coming on board they also say snow possible to lower levels, but at this range it would be pin the tail on the donkey to guess where snow will fall. So the all the big models are on board and now the MET surely it can't go tits up from here can it its in realms of reliable now lol.  Hands up who has told there family or friends and jinxed it.

[Sara_south_yorks]

5 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Great to see the MET are coming on board they also say snow possible to lower levels, but at this range it would be pin the tail on the donkey to guess where snow will fall. So the all the big models are on board and now the MET surely it can't go tits up from here can it its in realms of reliable now lol.  Hands up who has told there family or friends and jinxed it.

Well I have told my kids hahaha, so maybe I have oooops. 

 

[snowangel32]

1 minute ago, snow*please said:

Well I have told my kids hahaha, so maybe I have oooops. 

 

Lol me too, I also told my sister who lives in Yeovil that they could see some snow they are well and truly starved down there not a flake for a few years. 

[terrier]

Looks like I might finally get some decent overtime in on my gritting route. Joking aside it does look mainly dry but as we all know instability can crop up almost anywhere bringing showers or longer spells of snow.

[winterof79]

The Realiiy good news about having a cold spell in early Jan is it has a 60% chance of snowing while dark.Get in there.

[Paul]

Latest from Jo on the upcoming cold snap (and the wet weather in the next few days too!)

 

 

[marksiwnc]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Exactly: apart from an increased likelihood, in favoured areas (Northern Isles, North-facing coastal regions in Scotland and England, attempting detail would be foolhardy at best (even for us on here); but, the MetO being two-flakes' short of Snowmageddon...and it's endless wittering-on about 'tax-subsidized super computers'!

Whats this.  No snow for Ireland and Wales???  Surely after Scotland northern Ireland and North and west Wales should see quite a bit of snow???  I maybe wrong 

[pipsta]

5 hours ago, pipsta said:

With all the talk of the longevity here, the Meto still don't seem convinced.

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:

Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.

They have now revised this

 

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

 

North Westerly as apposed to Northerly/NE ?

Edited January 7, 2016 by pipsta

[winterof79]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:

The strongest signal for the period is generally unsettled conditions with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

Updated at: 1357 on Thu 7 Jan 2016

 

LOVE DARREN BETTS

[snefnug]

Gosh, must be getting serious!  Even the Banty, Ranty, Moany thread is generously donating toys to all and sundry

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

27 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift.

UK Outlook for Friday 22 Jan 2016 to Friday 5 Feb 2016:

The strongest signal for the period is generally unsettled conditions with winds mainly coming from the west. Showers or longer spells of rain are expected, interspersed by some dry and brighter interludes. The rain being heaviest and most persistent in the north and west where rainfall totals are likely to be above average. The south and east should be more sheltered, getting the best of the drier and brighter interludes, so rainfall totals here may by slightly below average. Temperatures through this period should be near or a little above average for most areas, but further cold spells are possible.

Updated at: 1357 on Thu 7 Jan 2016

They've not been wrong yet this winter...

[snefnug]

BBC radio 4 5:55pm weather , Jay Rayner extraordinarily reticent beyond tomorrow's weather. Like I said, before, named storm loads a rain they really go to town on.  No online weather forecast as yet. If they get their forecast data from meto, presumably meto is in holding pattern or know something none of Models quoted on model thread do?

Edited January 7, 2016 by snefnug