Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[Lampostwatcher]

So where and when is it going to snow ? 

The cold weather. Has been searched for how long now ? 

So any so called experts could put up a map please 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Not really sure why you've posted this in here? Better popping in the MOD thread and giving us your thoughts? 

I thought I'd posted it in the moans thread; I've PM'd Geordiesnow, and I'll hide the post.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

No probs you have enough knowledge about the models Chris to give your thoughts in the mod thread anyhow. 

That's the trouble - I don't think I have, other than the occasional "statement of the obvious".  I don't trust my understanding enough to post my interpretation lest I mislead someone who, like me until very recently, was wholly reliant on others interpreting the charts for them.

Returning to the cold spell, I'm surprised at the daytime maxima shown on BBC forecasts at the moment.  I know they're city centre maxima, but I honestly think they mislead more than they help.  I think most members here can lower the figure shown for their area by 1C if they live near the centre of a city or larger town, 2C if they're in a suburban area not adjacent to the centre or in a smaller town, and possibly 3C if they're in a rural area or have are near open countryside.  Merely an opinion - not to be taken as a certainty of course!

Edited January 11, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Minor re-write.

[northwestsnow]

TBF i suspect the beeb/meto temp forecasts are indeed for city centres, they sometime mention it being a good few degrees colder away from urban built up areas.

For example beeb showing 4 in manchester on thur/fri, it will be more like 2deg round these parts.

Obviously im at 200m in t'hills so that makes an obvious difference.:)

[Supercell 89]

I'm a little puzzled as to why the meto and beeb are predicting only snow for high ground for the majority of the week. Unless I'm missing something the models to me suggest snow at lower levels at times throughout most the week. Wednesday and Friday morning being the only periods we are not under the -5C line. 

It is a tricky set up but I'm just a little puzzled. Friday morning could be interesting however if that low tracks further south or the cold air digs in quicker than currently projected. 

[Lampostwatcher]

What cold spell ?

[snowrye]

Gotta feeling that this is going to be a farce,models all over the place,mod thread all over place,would love a snowfest,but im just not feeling it

[Thundery wintry showers]

23 minutes ago, Supercell 89 said:

I'm a little puzzled as to why the meto and beeb are predicting only snow for high ground for the majority of the week. Unless I'm missing something the models to me suggest snow at lower levels at times throughout most the week. Wednesday and Friday morning being the only periods we are not under the -5C line. 

It is a tricky set up but I'm just a little puzzled. Friday morning could be interesting however if that low tracks further south or the cold air digs in quicker than currently projected. 

Probably the "residual" warmth around the UK following that exceptionally warm November and record-breaking warm December and the resulting high sea surface temperatures.   The latest GFS run for example suggests a snow line of 200-300m for Friday morning:

I am expecting a marginal mix of mostly rain and sleet at low levels with snow mainly for high ground.   But if this setup had followed a near-average November and December then I would be expecting widespread snow to low ground.

[summer blizzard]

5 hours ago, M fish said:

So where and when is it going to snow ? 

The cold weather. Has been searched for how long now ? 

So any so called experts could put up a map please 

I'm optimistic for Wednesday night. I have some height, i have relative rurality (no urban heat effect) and the GFS has most runs had an all snow event for me. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Confident southern areas of North West England will see snow to low levels on thursday morning.

[Geordiesnow]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Probably the "residual" warmth around the UK following that exceptionally warm November and record-breaking warm December and the resulting high sea surface temperatures.   The latest GFS run for example suggests a snow line of 200-300m for Friday morning:

I am expecting a marginal mix of mostly rain and sleet at low levels with snow mainly for high ground.   But if this setup had followed a near-average November and December then I would be expecting widespread snow to low ground.

I think its a little surprising for me in respect at times, the winds are forecast to be quite light at times so sea moderation should not really come into play but the uppers tend to be less cold by then. 

Just how above average are SST's at the moment?

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Probably the "residual" warmth around the UK following that exceptionally warm November and record-breaking warm December and the resulting high sea surface temperatures.   The latest GFS run for example suggests a snow line of 200-300m for Friday morning:

I am expecting a marginal mix of mostly rain and sleet at low levels with snow mainly for high ground.   But if this setup had followed a near-average November and December then I would be expecting widespread snow to low ground.

I'm not quite sure what you are getting at with "residual warmth" it radiates out into cooler surroundings the atmosphere, with it getting colder beforehand I do not think it's a concern, some of the heat gets trapped in surfaces this is most greatest retained by dark surfaces, thus the chance of settling snow is lower as consequence of this warm autumn and start to winter, this is minimised if you're rural. Although having little to no effect on who's going to see snow its down to how cold it is up there, rather than near ground level. Friday morning parameters are not as conducive quite brief, it improves through the day. Just need the all important precipitation still scope for widespread snowfall.

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I'd say it doesn't even look like a "cold spell" now, if I'm honest... and that's even coming from me! If anything I'd say it's merely a spell of cold zonality now, as the Atlantic looks fairly buoyant. The only real difference is winds are more NW'ly instead of SW'ly.

Cold zonality would be having the jet stream blasting through us but with the UK just being on the Northern side of the jet, this is not like that at all, its a blocked set up however the cold air has been modified/delayed by this trough over us but from mid week onwards, it will get colder(And certainly feel colder as dew points will be lower than they are now) and the weekend if the Euro models are right could potentially be colder still but snow risk all but diminished by then. So your wrong in saying it doesn't even look like a cold spell but it does not look anything severe in terms of snowfall and initially temperatures although this could be different by the weekend if some computer models are proven right with night time minimums could be pretty low in some areas. 

[The PIT]

Zero so far none today. Hopefully the breakdown of the cool spell may provide some frontal snow.

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

It's barely blocked though. It's not like there is a massive mid-Atlantic/Greenland high stopping the lows in their track. The lows still move through, and there is still a pretty strong jetstream moving through the country (maybe a bit to the south, I guess)

LOL, just being pedantic.

This is cold zonality

 

The current set-up is more like small lows fujiwaraing, I think they call it, around a parent low.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Weather-history
.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

9 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I'd say it doesn't even look like a "cold spell" now, if I'm honest... and that's even coming from me! If anything I'd say it's merely a spell of cold zonality now, as the Atlantic looks fairly buoyant. The only real difference is winds are more NW'ly instead of SW'ly.

can only agree with that, for my location at low level, looks like a wet week, selfishly I would prefer the SW'lys as they are drier than NW'lys here

[carinthian]

Check out the falling dew points out west. This surface flow through Ireland and into the SW is sourced from Scandinavia and Northern Russia, albeit a long route but has a continent starting point.

 C

Edited January 12, 2016 by carinthian

[snow freak]

not expecting great things from this cold snap I have to say.  The fact that we will have a few cold days and nights compared to what we've had so far this winter doesn't really make up for this abysmally boring winter this year.  I fear that with only a month or two left of winter we are seriously running out of time for anything decent happening snow wise this winter....yet again. 

[Gord]

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

not expecting great things from this cold snap I have to say.  The fact that we will have a few cold days and nights compared to what we've had so far this winter doesn't really make up for this abysmally boring winter this year.  I fear that with only a month or two left of winter we are seriously running out of time for anything decent happening snow wise this winter....yet again. 

Completely agree with and understand your comments...but one or 2 months left out of a 3 month season is hardly running out of time!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Gord

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Gord said:

Completely agree with and understand your sentiment...but one or 2 months left out of a 3 month season is hardly running out of time!

I think much depends on whether the expected return of zonality is a persistent pattern or not.  Given that El Nino should be weakening by the latter stages of this month, if it hasn't yet done so already, and that the tropospheric vortex is recovering from a pummeling rather than smoothly winding-up from its usual summer hibernation, I suspect that a return to the intensity of rainfall and extreme mildness of December for any prolonged timespan is unlikely, especially if further tropospheric waves do propagate into the higher latitudes as the likes of GP, Tamara etc. are predicting.

[snow freak]

8 minutes ago, Gord said:

Completely agree with and understand your comments...but one or 2 months left out of a 3 month season is hardly running out of time!

true but once you have February gone then any cold or snowy spell is much reduced due to the lengthening days and higher sun.  Yes we have had bitter cold and snow in March and this is not unusual as winter seems to kick in later and later these past few years, but again these events would be far better to have in midwinter than in the early stages of Spring when they don't tend to last as long due to the reasons given above.  I will give this winter until the end of February to buck its ideas up and then give up for another year.  Next winter I will make sure I book a holiday somewhere that is at least snow reliable for one week as I don't think I could bear yet another snow free winter in the UK.

[Gord]

7 minutes ago, snow freak said:

true but once you have February gone then any cold or snowy spell is much reduced due to the lengthening days and higher sun.  Yes we have had bitter cold and snow in March and this is not unusual as winter seems to kick in later and later these past few years, but again these events would be far better to have in midwinter than in the early stages of Spring when they don't tend to last as long due to the reasons given above.  I will give this winter until the end of February to buck its ideas up and then give up for another year.  Next winter I will make sure I book a holiday somewhere that is at least snow reliable for one week as I don't think I could bear yet another snow free winter in the UK.

Fair enough. I would agree with the end of February as a point to start thinking about the move towards Spring, but until then, I say enjoy the model watching and keep our minds open!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Gord

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

not expecting great things from this cold snap I have to say.  The fact that we will have a few cold days and nights compared to what we've had so far this winter doesn't really make up for this abysmally boring winter this year.  I fear that with only a month or two left of winter we are seriously running out of time for anything decent happening snow wise this winter....yet again.

Agree expect nothing get something my motto

Ill probably lamp post watch to 2am and then find out I had the wrong day

Although if marginal height will make all the difference and Brill hill (600ft) not far from me. Take the misses for Pub lunch at 2am ?

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by stewfox

[Gord]

15 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Do you know what I'd say to the lot of you? Just watch the radar and the current conditions on Thursday and Friday, rather than getting overly optimistic or pessimistic about the current set-up.

Just see it as there is an uncertain possibility of snow and it may or may not deliver. That way you're not holding your breath, nor are you getting overly excited...

Even better, look out of the window, sometimes even the radar is wrong!

[Turnedoutniceagain]

As usual the cold 'snap' is slipping back. Last Friday we were expecting the 1st flurries in Mids/SE tomorrow. Now it'll be next Monday if we're lucky