Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[knocker]

2 hours ago, mistyqueen said:

Aye Ed, that would be on my little patch of Tartanville! It rarely snows here, so if we see any of the white stuff where I am, I'll be nothing short of amazed!

I have to say in the land of Talisker and Laphroaig snow would be the last thing on my mind.

[Darren Bown]

Not posted in a looong time!

 

models seem to be shifting the start of this cold spell to early next week - after seeking to be Wednesday during this afternoon.

[snefnug]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What, that us snow-nutters are, well, nutters?

Ummm yes, obvs!  but what is this cobra in weather terms?

[Nouska]

15 minutes ago, snefnug said:

First velociraptors, now double cobra (Steve Murr on model thread).  Que?  Is it significant?

Only if it bites you in the ass!

[snefnug]

13 minutes ago, knocker said:

I have to say in the land of Talisker and Laphroaig snow would be the last thing on my mind.

Ahhh, but a wee bit of snow, makes the wee dram just that wee bit more......just right?

[damianslaw]

Friday morning could easily deliver snow to preety low levels over far north of England - one to watch, if precipitation is heavy enough evaporative cooling should kick in and a few places around the 100-200m might see some of the white stuff.

 

[Darren Bown]

GFS certainly can't make its mindup on the duration. 00z showing the cold lasting past next weekend.

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, Darren Bown said:

GFS certainly can't make its mindup on the duration. 00z showing the cold lasting past next weekend.

You cannot pin down a length of a cold spell before it's even started. People have a habit of sitting at the computer whilst snow falls outside the window, looking for the end to the cold spell.

I intend to become a five year old again and run around, make snowmen, and have snowball fights for as long as there is snow on the ground. (if we get some)

It's been such a long wait for some of us, I actually feel quite emotional about it all, I don't know whether to sing or burst into tears?  

[snefnug]

BBC morning forecast -  turning colder and much drier.... WHERE IS MY SNOW?

[Darren Bown]

9 minutes ago, snefnug said:

BBC morning forecast -  turning colder and much drier.... WHERE IS MY SNOW?

I watched the weather for the week ahead, BBC couldn't even give a detailed look at the weekend so far, shows how much the atmosphere is changing over the next 4 or 5 days!

[minus86BriJ]

 

A not too inspiring forecast for next week from the Irish Met below, although I have been known to email them a bunch of charts that verified along with their original way off the mark forecasts.  It keeps them on their toes, lol  

The upcoming cold spell, like any potential cold spell for the UK and Ireland, is always difficult for the models to evolve accurately at this time frame.  As has been the case time and time again in these situations the details beyond +96, +120 will be subject to seriously mood altering changes.  If I got a quarter of the 1.5 foot of snow I received in 2010 Id be happy!  Actually a good blast of cold air to shake everyone up and make the fashion accessory scarf wearers indistinguishable from the rest of us would almost be good enough.

 

Met.ie 

"Turning colder for Monday & Tuesday with a northwesterly wind setting in. These will bring showers, some wintry, to northern and northwestern parts of the country, while other areas will stay mostly dry and bright. Afternoon temperatures will be around 2 to 5 degrees and night time will bring widespread frost. 

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday: there are indications that showers or scattered outbreaks of rain will extend further inland at times on Wednesday. It also looks to become a little milder for a day on Wednesday with southerly winds, before northerly winds set in again on Thursday continuing the cold and drier spell with afternoon temperatures in the low single figures and night time temperatures well below freezing."

[tynevalleysnow]

My feeling after model watching for years is that the models will chop and change every run up to and after the cold starts with so many variables at play. Up to and during the 2010 cold spell the models were always looking for the atlantic break through and were pushed back numerous times.

Get the cold here first then look for snow and how long it will all last. With warmer seas around the UK and cold uppers lake/sea effect snow dumpings could well happen. Also look out for K>4 red geomagnetic storm activity as this can beef up ppn.

Also with regards to met update they will never come on board until >95% certain or they will be shot down in the media.

Edited January 7, 2016 by tynevalleysnow

[snefnug]

So how come the Meto and Irish Meto manage to forecast, on so many occasions, the barrelling named Atlantic storms way in advance?  Is it a different setup for cold?

[cobbett]

16 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

Also with regards to met update they will never come on board until >95% certain or they will be shot down in the media.

Exatcly - why people get wound up by these met updates is bizarre. They'll aways go with the 'cautious' approach especially when we have a weather pattern that goes against the norm. If you look at pretty much all their long term forecasts they all  the same format - "wettter in the NW, Drier in the SE.... zz. They'll be loathe to change this until they have to !

[tynevalleysnow]

9 minutes ago, snefnug said:

So how come the Meto and Irish Meto manage to forecast, on so many occasions, the barrelling named Atlantic storms way in advance?  Is it a different setup for cold?

Always an easier forecast when the vortex is sat over greenland 

[BornFromTheVoid]

The cold spell has started already here, 1.2C and snowing at the moment.

 

 

[pipsta]

With all the talk of the longevity here, the Meto still don't seem convinced.

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:

Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.

[Polar Maritime]

Great stuff Born 

[Nick L]

6 minutes ago, pipsta said:

With all the talk of the longevity here, the Meto still don't seem convinced.

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:

Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.

Can't say I agree with that assessment. Not seeing much to suggest a return to near normal temperatures next week, if anything the second half of the week looks colder!

[Abyss]

They haven't updated the second half of their update for days. Exact same wording as before. I think they will update it today. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by -Bomber-

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

21 minutes ago, pipsta said:

With all the talk of the longevity here, the Meto still don't seem convinced.

 

UK Outlook for Monday 11 Jan 2016 to Wednesday 20 Jan 2016:

Monday and Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. There is now an increased signal for a brief much colder spell around the middle of next week with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. Towards the end of next week unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds may become re-established, although there is some uncertainty. Temperatures should return to near normal.

This was yesterdays update. I would wait for today's update if I were you. Although could actually be Friday until actual wording changes, as if memory serves correct Tues and Fri are update days for long range?

[Nick L]

Just now, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

This was yesterdays update. I would wait for today's update if I were you. Although could actually be Friday until actual wording changes, as if memory serves correct Tues and Fri are update days for long range?

It was updated at 1am last night, so while it isn't totally up to date it was still very much against what the models were suggesting.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

It was updated at 1am last night, so while it isn't totally up to date it was still very much against what the models were suggesting.

It's exactly the same wording as yesterday lunch times update. Not that it is a big deal, bigger things going on lol.

[Nick L]

Just now, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

It's exactly the same wording as yesterday lunch times update. Not that it is a big deal, bigger things going on lol.

Ah fair enough, I was out and about yesterday so didn't see the previous version.

[LeeSnowFan]

Great charts again today certainly a prolonged cold spell is on the way with abit of snow for quite a few