Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[LeeSnowFan]

Just now, weathergeek said:

I thought the 16-30 day METO forecast text was only updated on Mondays and Fridays?x

It's updated daily based on what the models show

[Matthew Gill]

With the wind from the north I'd expect northern Ireland to get snow as well as the east coast of England. The northern Isles of Scotland. If it turns a little NW which some charts have it doing for a day or so then you get a Cheshire gap effect pushing snow showers inland. Also East of the pennines would be in the firing line. Where I am tho will miss it all as we always do. In 2010 on the snow map you'll see a 10 mile radius around cove with no snow. Must have been the only place in the country not to see any that year.

[LeeSnowFan]

 

 

[BM4PM]

27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

On the optimistic side, though, it looks to all-intents-and-purposes to be a non-updated copy of yesterday's update??

In other words we hope it will turn mild again or people will throw eggs at us for saying “2016 could end up the warmest on record” lol

Edited January 6, 2016 by BM4PM

[tynevalleysnow]

I know to take these forecasts with a massive shovel of salt but in 72 hours away so can't be that fare out

[Geordiesnow]

11 minutes ago, tynevalleysnow said:

I know to take these forecasts with a massive shovel of salt but in 72 hours away so can't be that fare out

There is actually could be some truth in that as colder air across Scotland/Northern most parts of England will head southwards on Sunday IF the UKMO/ECM(00Z) runs are right however if the GFS is right in making the low more stubborn to head eastwards then it will be a totally different forecast. 

I am hoping the UKMO is right in the short term as it would open the floodgates quicker and more than likely bring a more potent flow also. Not only that, but as that chart alludes too, there will be a snow risk also with any PPN wrapped around that low. 

Hopefully this cold can be a bit sustained and it wont end up as a toppler as per some ECM runs(although this mornings is a bit of an improvment), it just be nice to finally have some proper seasonal winter weather of cold days and cold nights with the potential of some snowfall mixed in also. 

[Norway Nut]

You might like to bookmark this site :- http://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html to watch the cold roll into the UK in  a few days time. It gives the previous 24 hours cloud movements. Enjoy.

P.S I'm across the North Sea near Bergen at 40m asl and already have woken up to -8 deg C temps and looking to stay in the freezer for the next 10 days at least.

Regards

 

[snefnug]

BBC John Hammond seems very cautious - wet into next week then colder then some snow...?

[mistyqueen]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

However much of the white stuff materializes, there will be a little corner of Scotland that stays dire and vile.

Aye Ed, that would be on my little patch of Tartanville! It rarely snows here, so if we see any of the white stuff where I am, I'll be nothing short of amazed!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, mistyqueen said:

Aye Ed, that would be on my little patch of Tartanville! It rarely snows here, so if we see any of the white stuff where I am, I'll be nothing short of amazed!

Prepare to be amazed MQ. Though I doubt it'll as fantastic as Xmas Eve 1995!

[Buzz]

Someday, somewhere ...........

[Hocus Pocus]

I'm keeping feet firmly planted on terra nova until  we breach the +48 mark, I've seen too many cold is in the bank charts melt away to nothing. However seen as this thread is to discuss fantasy snowfall etc, etc, I'll say ( if the models verify ) that IMBY has a good chance of seeing some appreciable falls of snow from next Tuesday onwards.  That's my little ecstatic ramp out of the way now back to being realistic.

[snefnug]

John Hammond on re next weeks weather, cold plunge etc, but drier, hinting not much snow?  Popping in experts from Model thread,  is this right?  

[stratty]

Just now, snefnug said:

John Hammond on re next weeks weather, cold plunge etc, but drier, hinting not much snow?  Popping in experts from Model thread,  is this right?  

...it couldn't be any wetter for some places, so he's got to be right, or could be a dumping of very dry snow as it'll be so cold!  

[Stormyking]

6 minutes ago, snefnug said:

John Hammond on re next weeks weather, cold plunge etc, but drier, hinting not much snow?  Popping in experts from Model thread,  is this right?  

Depending where your located with the type of set up, as its coming from a Northerly type source to start with, it will be dry in most places, unless your on Eastern, Northern or some western coasts, as most snow would be mostly showers and at this time of the year the sea helps fuel the showers due to it being warmer too, but as they go too far inland they tend to die out. If the type of set up GFS/ first part of the ECM was in February it would be a different matter, as the sun will be just about strong enough to produce Land convective snow showers. However some charts do have a bit more snow in them than others due to some odd troughs, kinks and little lows mixed in which would be better for widespread sleet/snow. 

 

Though at this stage though its is very early to say whether it will snow or not where ever you are, things can very quickly change still

Edited January 6, 2016 by Stormyking

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I'm keeping feet firmly planted on terra nova until  we breach the +48 mark, I've seen too many cold is in the bank charts melt away to nothing. However seen as this thread is to discuss fantasy snowfall etc, etc, I'll say ( if the models verify ) that IMBY has a good chance of seeing some appreciable falls of snow from next Tuesday onwards.  That's my little ecstatic ramp out of the way now back to being realistic.

Make sure you don't upset the local velociraptor population???

[snefnug]

11 minutes ago, snefnug said:

John Hammond on re next weeks weather, cold plunge etc, but drier, hinting not much snow?  Popping in experts from Model thread,  is this right?  

Just watched John Hammond on the Beeb practically biting his finger with excitement over the "change on the way"  .... From moany Banty ranty  thread... Interesting different perspectives. 

 

[MidnightSnow]

Looking forward to lamp post watching at 3AM... it's been too long.

[snefnug]

That John Hammond is busy!  Newer forecast, more cold, but not much more info, I think he be a secret cold ramper in disguise.

[Hocus Pocus]

30 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Make sure you don't upset the local velociraptor population???

I think my spellchecker just had a senior moment.

[snefnug]

2 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

I think my spellchecker just had a senior moment.

Velociraptor - someone infatuated  with bicycles?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I think there will be snow around, but likely to get snowier into the cold spell.  I had arctic plunge end of Jan into Feb 2 week spell with polar lows from truly arctic sourced air, I didn't expect the set up to come this early.  On that basis I'm going to ramp as I still think the late cold spell will remain, I anticipate very disruptive periods of cold and snow with depths in the feet and not inches even in low lying areas during what I think if next week is correct will be a 4 week+ cold spell .

 

BFTP

Edited January 6, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Mark Neal.]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I think there will be snow around, but likely to get snowier into the cold spell.  I had arctic plunge end of Jan into Feb 2 week spell with polar lows from truly arctic sourced air, I didn't expect the set up to come this early.  On that basis I'm going to ramp as I still think the late cold spell will remain, I anticipate very disruptive periods of cold and snow with depths in the feet and not inches even in low lying areas during what I think if next week is correct will be a 4 week+ cold spell .

 

BFTP

Hope your right BFTP!

[snefnug]

First velociraptors, now double cobra (Steve Murr on model thread).  Que?  Is it significant?

[Methuselah]

Just now, snefnug said:

First velociraptors, now double cobra (Steve Murr on model thread).  Que?  Is it significant?

What, that us snow-nutters are, well, nutters?