Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Jason H]

4 minutes ago, Alexis said:

Depends where you live. That looks a brilliant chart for Birmingham northwards.

The futility of looking too far ahead. That's not a personal spite against anyone in particular, just an observation. I shall pug that chart away and check it on the 17th to see how near the mark it was

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, IPredictASnowStorm said:

Massive Band of snow For the midlands but not for London

Don't stress In weather terms the 17th is an eternity it will look nothing like that on the day. As the old saying goes get the cold locked in first then snow will follow. And all the models agree cold for next week.

[Continental Climate]

14 minutes ago, rory o gorman said:

The ukmo doesn't run out to 168 hrs you said all 3 models? , the gfs and ecm have no to toppler with almost full cross polar flow.

 

I said all three CHARTS referring to the UKMO please read what I said. Anyway lets end this now its clogging up the thread with useless drivel!!

[Harsh Climate]

 People over analyzing a single gfs operational run that has absolutely no support from esembles (as there not out yet) or anything!

 

Take a step back and look at the big picture:

*Yep Greenland high still there!

*Yep turning much colder!

At this stage this is all we can really look into. And I've never known an upcoming big cold spell with no ups or downs, tbh we have been lucky so far there have been absolutely no downgrades yet!

Edited January 7, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[tight isobar]

I'd advise taking the modeled Chanel low' with regards to engagement non literally. 

By engagement I refer to the eventually point spot..

There notorious to be fickle in nature...and this far out its anyone's guess.

Good set of 12zsuites.

[Liam J]

People in the south west would be wondering what all the fuss was about, ice days in the north and double figures in the SW, 22 degree temp contrast... But I don't think for one second that T288 charts will get anywhere near verification! ECM next.... 

[Frosty.]

Well this coldie doesn't think the Gfs 12z is disappointing since it shows the UK plunged into a freeze with sub zero by day and night as well as large snowfalls in places...disappointing has been all the mild mush we had before and during Christmas but I am certain we are heading into a progressively colder wintry pattern during next week onwards!BOOM

[Froze were the Days]

7 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 People over analyzing a single gfs operational run that has absolutely no support from esembles (as there not out yet) or anything!

 

Take a step back and look at the big picture:

*Yep Greenland high still there!

*Yep turning much colder!

At this stage this is all we can really look into. And I've never known an upcoming big cold spell with no ups or downs, tbh we have been lucky so far there have been absolutely no downgrades yet!

Agreed!...I'm just looking at the GFS 12z from a perspective of longevity compared to recent previous runs.

[West is Best]

31 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

Sorry but that just isn't true. If a 1050MB cut off Greenland high is considered "not a good run" then what the hell can be considered a good run?! Cold is slower to move in but the heights across Greenland are incredible. 

GFS 12z is an amazing run. Some areas would be absolutely pasted.

We always get that kind of post when a good cold spell shows up. To be charitable I think it's a kind of reverse psychology: talk it all down, tell yourself that the most stonking charts for some years are really awful, then throw into the mix some 'it will fall as sleet at T489 type posts' and it sets the scene.

It's ever thus.

1060mb Greenland High in gorgeous yellow heights. Bloody nora. Never thought I'd see that showing up. UKMO is stunning. 

I'm not sure anyone will take any notice of this, but as others have said, step back and look at the synoptics. They're very, very, encouraging.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[feb1991blizzard]

The GEFS mean at 144 is still looking pretty good.

[January Snowstorm]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

We always get that kind of post when a good cold spell shows up. To be charitable I think it's a kind of reverse psychology: talk it all down, tell yourself that the most stonking charts for some years are really awful, then throw into the mix some 'it will fall as sleet at T489 type posts' and it sets the scene.

It's ever thus.

1060mb Greenland High in gorgeous yellow heights. Bloody nora. Never thought I'd see that showing up. UKMO is stunning. 

 

Whilst I agree with most of what you say where are you getting a 1060 Greenland high from?

The ukmo has a mid atlantic high that barely ridges towards Greenland. Though of course it may get there if they did a 168 hrs 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[Ali1977]

I think the GFS op may be a warmer outlier earlier on with the ensembles looking at the mean....Ensemble mean looks slightly better than op, slightly further east 

[Polar Maritime]

Another cold run from the GFS with strong heights over Greenland and the Jet way South. A really would not worry at all after day 7, As the models are as unpredictable as they can be at the moment.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

Excellent UKMO output tonight. No drama with the Azores low and a re-load because of the upstream pattern. The GFS with some big differences and liable to cause nervous breakdowns in here because that could easily go pearshaped.

You never want to see high pressure ridging ne out of Iberia in this set up because then you're relying on things going right well into FI. Theres no guarantee they will,  more time for more variables to pop up and I really don't want that GFS to verify!

[Paul_1978]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Whilst I agree with most of what you say where are you getting a 1060 Greenland high from?

The ukmo has a mid atlantic high that barely ridges towards Greenland. Though of course it may get there if they did a 168 hrs 

 

 

Here....(although it's 1055 here, it's 1060 on the T+180 chart). 

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Indeed feb1991 an getting colder at 168

 

HA!   Actually i was looking at the control run!!!!!  sorry people, but based on 200+ IT looks better better ridging into the Arctic regions.

[Zakos]

I don't think there is any "right" or "wrong" way to view the charts.

What I do know is that over analyzing every run and getting upset/hopeful based on a single run is completely pointless.

The Greenland high hasn't even set up yet. How can we possibly speculate how it will affect our weather in detail before it has even spawned?

What is the purpose of speculating when the cold spell will end when it hasn't even started yet?

Of course we can get a rough idea, but this should be done using all of the outputs over the course of a day, rather than taking every run as gospel.

I am not looking beyond 120 hours on the GFS, and all i see is almost continual upgrades.

 

The CFS has continued its cooling trend, now showing a deeply negative AO, heights over Greenland and an increasingly southerly tracking Jet stream.

Ten days ago it was showing a Bartlett scenario. A complete backtrack here from the CFS.

Just goes to show the weather will do what it wants to do.

I personally think we will see a potent and prolonged cold spell. There is potential IMO for a memorable event to occur.

[coldcomfort]

I think the strength and position of the Az low is going to continue chopping and changing quite markedly across the coming 36-48hrs or 6-8 GFS runs, so if your emotions are tied to every twist and turn then your nerves are likely to be shredded by this time on Saturday....  For what it's worth I think this run has got the general evolution pretty much sorted, with the milder air likely to move north later next week and across the weekend, but who gets rain/sleet/snow as a result is pure conjecture at this stage, as is exactly where we go after that point. As others have said the big picture is a good if not excellent one for wintry weather, but again it's rare for everyone to come out equal and there will no doubt be some big winners and big losers once again in the upcoming snow lottery.

[ALL ABOARD]

6 members of the gfs ensembles have that low affecting our weather by 204 and bringing in mild dross again! and after Fergies tweet this must be where they are struggling with the longevity of the cold. 

 

[winterof79]

9 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

6 members of the gfs ensembles have that low affecting our weather by 204 and bringing in mild dross again! and after Fergies tweet this must be where they are struggling with the longevity of the cold. 

 

I do not see 6 westerly based scenarios there and they are all cold at 204 could be wrong

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=204

EDIT perturbation 7 only

Edited January 7, 2016 by winterof79

[Timmytour]

The extent of my technical ability to look for the xciting is limited to the North Atlantic Swan.... When the yellows and oranges over the Atlantic take the form of a North Atlantic Swan flying west while looking back in an easterly direction, then I know something really exciting is brewing!

A few of those gfs ensembles posted by All Aboard look very close to that coming to fruition!!

Edited January 7, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[ALL ABOARD]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I do not see 8 westerly based scenarios there and they are cold

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=204

I agree I was talking in reference to the pattern that would evolve from these. Still all to play for but maybe thats why the met are holding off on a long spell as apparently around 20% of ec ens agreed.

If you skip through to 228 you'll see what im talking about

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[Dr. Astro]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

I agree I was talking in reference to the pattern that would evolve from these. Still all to play for but maybe thats why the met are holding off on a long spell as apparently around 20% of ec ens agreed.

 

None of what you posted was "Mild Dross", it's all cold.

Plenty of potential with that cut off GH.

[radiohead]

Two things that seem certain from looking at the 12Z runs. Some significant, large scale changes are going to take place next week in the northern hemisphere + FI starts about 96 hours right now.

It will be very interesting to see if the 12Z ECM follows the GFS, UKMO, GEM or perhaps offers another variation. It's great model watching either way.

[Weather-history]

19 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Here....(although it's 1055 here, it's 1060 on the T+180 chart). 

It's said ever winter this but you have to be wary of weather modelling over the Greenland plateau. It may show that value but it is likely won't be that.