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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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GFS 06Z ens - most members still looking pretty cold even at T252

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=252

The mean demonstrates well:

gens-21-1-252.png

gens-21-0-252.png

Massive change from 00Z ens. Much more like ECM ens too:

EDM1-240.GIF?07-12

Speaking of the ECM ens, the clustering for London is really really cold; averaging close to 0C for a long period.

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London

Anyone who went for a below average CET in the January competition will be well in the game if this comes off.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS 06Z ens - most members still looking pretty cold even at T252

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=252

The mean demonstrates well:

gens-21-1-252.png

gens-21-0-252.png

Massive change from 00Z ens. Much more like ECM ens too:

EDM1-240.GIF?07-12

Speaking of the ECM ens, the clustering for London is really really cold; averaging close to 0C for a long period.

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London

Anyone who went for a below average CET in the January competition will be well in the game if this comes off.

That is a great mean chart for that range. Normally you would expect a cold signal to be pretty muted given an expected wide spread of solutions that far into FI. 

Edited by radiohead

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I wonder what the biggest change between two consecutive winter months is in terms of CET. Last months CET was 9.7c which was record breaking for December. I think looking at the outputs and as long as the pattern sets up sufficiently east we could see a massive drop for January. Quickly looking at the CET records January 1945 was 0.4c followed by February 7.1c.

So far that looks the biggest change 6.7 so we'd need January to come in at 2.9c. Can we make that? If we can get a much colder last two thirds of January, its possible.

Apparently I missed 1828/1829! Its 7.1 drop is the biggest, that would be amazing if we could do that.

Edited by nick sussex

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I wonder what the biggest change between two consecutive winter months is in terms of CET. Last months CET was 9.7c which was record breaking for December. I think looking at the outputs and as long as the pattern sets up sufficiently east we could see a massive drop for January. Quickly looking at the CET records January 1945 was 0.4c followed by February 7.1c.

So far that looks the biggest change 6.7 so we'd need January to come in at 2.9c. Can we make that? If we can get a much colder last two thirds of January, its possible.

See Roger's post at the bottom of page 7:

 

Certainly looking at the ensembles and the potential longevity they show (although I'm still being cautious here), we could well do it.

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55 minutes ago, Tamara said:

Reasons to keep perspective::)

  

Fantastic post Tamara and your thoughts as always are set out in a way that in my opinion is easily understood (in the most part)

I do totally agree that we are on the cusp of a very significant change that will with us for the next 20/30 years which will see colder winters and perhaps warmer summers. the question is how cold can it get as we enter a significantly low solar minimum and very low next cycle and how it affects our climatic patterns. linking the two via model watching is going to be a very productive period

Edited by Polar Maritime
To reduce long quote.

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Comparison of 0z and 6z GFS ensembles does show big improvement on cold prospects with virtually all members now trending cold. 

MT8_London_ens 0z.png

MT8_London_ens 6z.png

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Well I've managed not be obsessed with following the models so far this winter. Thats all about to change i fear. It will just be nice to have some frosty nights and cold winter sunshine if anything. 

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The parallel ecm broadly on the same page as the op and that includes the channel low which is almost on the identical track as the op. if anything, the milder air gets a bit further north before the wrap around drops the temps back again.

from an IMBY perspective, not the best news but if we want to see a big snow event across parts of England/wales, its good.

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Trust the seasonal wavelengths here the more we head through the month to February,

 

Tamara, so are you suggesting we are [pardon the pun] 'warming' up for Feb to be coldest month with the seasonal wavelengths suggesting a total cold month?  I agree re 1st half of Feb in particular still somewhat BUT very interesting if the pattern amplifies as quickly as showing on OP runs as that suggests a 4-6 week cold lock in?  I think its possible alright but even a 'supercoldie' like me is sitting up and back a bit.  Thoughts please as like I said that find re AO/NAO link to July could be some find

regards

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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From Twitter

 

Is anyone able to explain this?. The only bit I understand is the end bit "More -NAO?" which can obviously on be a very good thing.

 

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@Noballslikesnowballs

tropical forcing centred in the central part of the Equatorial Pacific. Check the period forecast off that analogue.....

Edited by Glacier Point

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2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

@Noballslikesnowballs

tropical forcing centred in the central part of the Equatorial Pacific. Check the period forecast off that analogue.....

yep 21st Jan to 20th feb. Potential for -NAO to continue well into Feb?, therefore lots of potential for cold outbreaks well into Feb at the moment?

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Just a quick one to ease peoples worries about wether it will be cold enough for snow next week.

Here are a couple of charts for the next 24 hrs in not yet very conducive conditions for snow.Look at the central belt even though the precipitation is now forecast to be lighter than previous,snow still forecast

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2016/01/07/basis06/ukuk/prty/16010812_0706.gif

850s of max -5,  next week will exceed these values

16010812_0706.gif

Theta-w ideally zero required as Nick mentioned but not here

16010812_0706.gif

 

Snow can/will fall unexpectedly next week and that has always been the beauty of getting a nice cold pool asserted.

 

Probably got things wrong in there but hey ho enjoy .

 

 

 

Edited by winterof79

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Hello Everyone!

Nice to see the 18z last night was a blip, although not ignoring it completely, thought I would share the ECM ENS Ensemble 850hpa Graph Attached below for anyone interested in comparing to the operational run. 

Red Line: Ensemble Mean

Black Line: Operational Run

The Ensemble mean is looking colder than last nights run :)

graphe_ens3.png

Edited by tomjwlx

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4 hours ago, Tamara said:

@BFTP :   I think that there are good reasons, as outlined in recent posts, for a further cold period in February, and, with less issue regarding any possible west based -ve NAO, and H500 anomalies adjusted slightly further east, quite likely would be colder still than the upcoming one. 'Lock down' is intended to refer to an overall regime change from the first half of winter, not necessarily literally a whole month in the freezer! No-one can predict anything like that

Ok that sort of answers it, but Ops are going straight in with -ve NAO that brings proper cold to our shores from next week.  So are we thinking then that west base is favoured for now?  Because if the Ops are right [and they look proper cold to me] together with the trusted seasonal longwave pattern then a 4-6 week cold pattern is in the offing.

 

regards

 

BFTP

 

Edit - thanks for message T,  heads down then and let's see how this evolves

 

Edit - can we get Tam to 100 likes on her excellent post?  C'mon!!

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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2 hours ago, Karl83 said:

 For those who use Meteociel on their phones/tablets etc. There is an app on Android and iOS. It's well laid out and far easier to navigate through and has every chart you need.

Just thought I'd share this.

Thanks just downloaded this and it's great!

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Just 'Model Output' please, As has been stated many times there is a relevant thread open for Meto extended forecasts. Thanks

Edited by Polar Maritime

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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think the highlighted part for me is the key. They are well and truly on the fence IMO

Last one on this from me. The MET mention snow showers to low levels they know these could be heavy/prolonged or could accumulate,so its a good call up to press from them and they sure know it wont shift easy.

gfsnh-0-192.png?6

gfsnh-1-192.png?6

gfsnh-0-240.png?6

 

Of course the Westerlies will return but they will find stern resistance and a propensity for the cold to return at any look -in 

Edited by winterof79

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