Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Both the UKMO and ECM begin to bring the low near the Azores into play at day 6.

UKMO

Is this a bad thing?

Edited January 7, 2016 by Ali1977

[rory o gorman]

 

4 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Both the UKMO and ECM begin to bring the low near the Azores into play at day 6.

                         UKMO                                                                    ECM

        

 

I must admit this is the first point so far where I am starting to feel a little nervous about this.

 I agree a very west based ridge here, You can see the Met office's evolution to a westerly pattern clearly  here. 

[January Snowstorm]

Messy ecm whilst on paper at 168hrs it could deliver large amounts of snow.

I don't like it and certainly puts the brakes on us being guaranteed a cold spell. A nudge here and there and we would be looking at a mild outlook from here

[Mucka]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is this a bad thing?

Could be a very good thing, depends on track and timing but so much uncertainty re this low that it is just something to watch with interest. GFS Op gives a snowstorm on the 18th while the control doesn't bring into play until much later than that for example so...

ECM rock solid at 144 and then brings this low into play ont he 14th with snow storm on Northern flank.

It will certainly keep the output interesting, as if it were currently dull.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

9 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Both the UKMO and ECM begin to bring the low near the Azores into play at day 6.

                         UKMO                                                                    ECM

        

 

I must admit this is the first point so far where I am starting to feel a little nervous about this as this potentially allows a push of warm air up from the south west. Luckily this type of interaction is something not resolved until the nearer timeframes.

ECM at day 7

A deep low approaching from the south west, certainly brings moisture into the mix at least for the southern half of the UK.

Could result in a lot of snow, though?

[Captain Shortwave]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is this a bad thing?

It could be good or bad depending on the track of that low and how the trough over us/Europe interacts. If the low can push ENE through the English channel then it could work out well with snow over southern areas, but it could blow up quickly and track more north east which could bring mild air back from the south west. Sorry for the lack of charts when you quoted me, I actually didn't mean to post at that point. 

Still a lot of time for changes, though I would wish there wasn't as many complications in the mix. At this point I would rather see that Azores low eject from the other side of the ridge as this could help to deepen any trough over the East coast of Canada and re-enforce the ridge.

The ECM this morning is cold Midlands northwards throughout. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Ali1977]

Looks like resurgent WAA to me at 268, similar to the last run..

[joggs]

The outlook is very much cold with different evolutions,don't worry.

Can we have charts pls for the newbies instead of one liners,thanks.

Edited January 7, 2016 by joggs

[Mucka]

So ECM 00z summary

Goes for cold from the 12th with sleet and snow showers

and then a snow storm for many.

and then a deep freeze setting in with frequent with snow showers likely from the North and East and the threat of more organised bands of snow.

 

 

Not bad I guess.

We really are on the cusp  of something very, very special - fingers crossed.

 

 

[daz_4]

Well, I definitely don't want that low blasting through the central Europe. But still good overall I guess.

[chris55]

Copious amounts of ppn around on the ECM this morning, marginal at times for some but potential for lots and lots of snow!!! Overall 00z suite generally a little less convincing at pulling the cold air definitivley over all of us, but certainly lots of snow potential if it's cold enough.

latter stages of ECM sets us up for a prolonged cold spell, so if we can get snow in the ground it would be around for a while.

 

[Mark Neal.]

Be interesting to see ECM snow totals just for fun. Sub Zero usually posts these. That would certainly be a lot of snow on its northern flank,?!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

ECM is monumental run.  Potential blizzards and then a re-establishment of GHP and cold longevity.....the run of the year if not decade for me

Cold sweeping in

LP from SW loaded with precip engaging in the cold ahead

may be some marginality initially

Blizzards...then cleanly through to this

 

COLD COLD COLD....Simply superb

 

BFTP

Edit - watch period of interest to me - post from NYE

Certainly period 10 -15 Jan [new moon/perigee period] is a storm watch period with a likely scenario of very deep LPs approaching from SW with accompanying storm force coastal winds.  Mild? or will it interlock with some colder air.   GFS having some of it

 

Further edit - gonna keep my mouth shut - look how I scuppered the 18z last night!!

 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[bluearmy]

Attention to detail dictates that I mention yesterday's ECM op para 12z collapsed the Atlantic ridge much like the 00z had earlier.

note the 00z ECM op picks the upper spread from yesterdays 12z ens running the Azores low ne. The op, having a deeper feature than most of the ens would have,  has it a tad further north than the spread showed. the snow depth chart for the Midlands is impressive as most of you would have guessed. 

[terrier]

Great ecm this morning and gfs. But a word of caution with the met still not on board I'm starting to wonder if the mogreps model is seeing things differently. guess we will know more in the days ahead. But until the experts start changing there outlook I will remain sceptical of the models for the time been anyway. As we see that low on the ecm at day 6 moving towards the Azores which would tie in with there outlook. 

[Mark Neal.]

6 minutes ago, terrier said:

Great ecm this morning and gfs. But a word of caution with the met still not on board I'm starting to wonder if the mogreps model is seeing things differently. guess we will know more in the days ahead. But until the experts start changing there outlook I will remain sceptical of the models for the time been anyway. As we see that low on the ecm at day 6 moving towards the Azores which would tie in with there outlook. 

Morning Terrier.

BBC forecasts keep mentioning much colder next week. I imagine they are still cautious about end of next week. Does it get colder? Do we have what morning ops show with a low moving up from SW bring snow on its Northern Flank, or do we have the high closer to us and a much drier picture. Can understand caution from them, be interesting to hear what mogreps is seeing. 

 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Mark N

[BM4PM]

Sorry to put a imby type post up, but for myself its not looking that great. Current temp forcast for next week in my area is around 5 degrees.

The uppers are there but im guessing the sst must be still quite warm which inturn must be modifying the air. 

I really dont understand as i dont think these charts could get any better. 

 

 

[andymusic]

Just now, BM4PM said:

Sorry to put a imby type post up, but for myself its not looking that great. Current temp forcast for next week in my area is around 5 degrees.

The uppers are there but im guessing the sst must be still quite warm which inturn must be modifying the air. 

I really dont understand as i dont think these charts could get any better. 

 

 

Think you have to wait while the cold entrenches into the system - then the games can begin

[coldcomfort]

14 minutes ago, BM4PM said:

Sorry to put a imby type post up, but for myself its not looking that great. Current temp forcast for next week in my area is around 5 degrees.

The uppers are there but im guessing the sst must be still quite warm which inturn must be modifying the air. 

I really dont understand as i dont think these charts could get any better. 

 

 

It's the curse of living in the SW I'm afraid, the only way to proper snow in your neck of the woods is via a Channel low giving strong NNE or NE winds. In the ideal world cold air needs to be well established before the arrival of the LP from the SW and this probably won't be the case this time around (if indeed the ECM evolution verifies), but make no mistake there is a chance and I think very little should be taken for granted atm. The fear I expressed yesterday in the moans thread was the eventual position of let's call it the Azores LP and I still think it is a concern if we are to see the clean evolution to the kind of widespread wintry weather shown on several of yesterdays output....the old adage of if it looks too good to be true then in probably is came readily to mind! All that said though let's be honest, pretty much every one of us on here would have chewed our own arm off a fortnight ago for the kind of synoptic's we are seeing now, even if they have dropped a little from the dizzying heights of yesterday.  Plenty of reasons to be very positive, but I like many others would really like to see the MO fully onboard the 'cold train' before getting too excited.

Edited January 7, 2016 by coldcomfort

[snowangel32]

A bit of devils advocate if we have the ridge further east it brings a chance of substantial snowfall for many areas but also we risk collapsing the high and allowing the Atlantic back in.

Or the second scenario is the ridge is further west but creates a wishbone effect with dryer air, but improves the chances of a sustained cold period and keeps the greenie high.

What would you choose I would go for the snowfall every time. High stakes.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 00Z ensembles are a bit more mixed than yesterday's

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

In particular, the Azores trough has blown up into an Atlantic low on quite a few runs, cutting off the cold feed for at least a time and taking milder air much further north. 

Studying the different members shows even more clearly how the Atlantic low could be friend or foe. For the first one, scroll down the page quickly if you don't want to spill your breakfast:

The coldest ens members keep the Azores trough well to the south:

leading to this by T216

It's a 50/50 call this morning regarding a longer cold snap, according these ensembles

[West is Best]

42 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is monumental run.  Potential blizards and then a re-establishment of GHP and cold longevity.....the run of the year if not decade for me

Cold sweeping in

LP from SW loaded with precip engaging in the cold ahead

may be some marginality initially

Blizzards...then cleanly through to this

 

COLD COLD COLD....Simply superb

 

BFTP

Edit - watch period of interest to me - post from NYE

Certainly period 10 -15 Jan [new moon/perigee period] is a storm watch period with a likely scenario of very deep LPs approaching from SW with accompanying storm force coastal winds.  Mild? or will it interlock with some colder air.   GFS having some of it

 

Further edit - gonna keep my mouth shut - look how I scuppered the 18z last night!!

 

 

Good morning my old friend. Well well well ... just when January was being written off by soothsayers these runs come through. Actually the models have been indicating developments for some time, it's just that we're in the unusual position of having huge upgrades at less than T168.

That ECM is an awesome set up, entirely backed by the other two. The GH of 1058 in yellow heights is a thing of great beauty

[rory o gorman]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

GFS 00Z ensembles are a bit more mixed than yesterday's

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=192

In particular, the Azores trough has blown up into an Atlantic low on quite a few runs, cutting off the cold feed for at least a time and taking milder air much further north. 

Studying the different members shows even more clearly how the Atlantic low could be friend or foe. For the first one, scroll down the page quickly if you don't want to spill your breakfast:

The coldest ens members keep the Azores trough well to the south:

leading to this by T216

It's a 50/50 call this morning regarding a longer cold snap, according these ensembles

Basically what I was gearing up to write , Looking at it objectively there is still quite a spread in the GFS ENS regarding the ridge placement ,The development of the AZ trough my infact over amplify and result in a blow torch instead. This is far from a slam dunk and a non bias forecaster would would still air on the side of caution . 

Edited January 7, 2016 by rory o gorman

[January Snowstorm]

I've said before the ensembles chop and change just like the op runs.

You need only look at last night where practically full agreement and 12 hours later it's 50/50!!

As ever more runs needed and the met are correct in holding off for now.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

As we wait the ECM a scan of the ensembles reveals

* GFS control - probably the most sustainable cold spell in the UK since 1986 - with the UK in the grip of winter from day 5 out to day 16 with a snowstorm in the south & the North already under snowcover frozen solid -

Also ZERO sign of pattern relaxation with the cut off greenland high still very strong ....

* GFS mean all the way out to day 16 paints a negative AO ( wheres IDO !) & the mean is down to -2 to -4 over the UK still - however if the pattern actually verifies like that then then uppers would be colder....

its all about that reridging up over canada & up in the atlantic at day 6 & 7 - nothing else really matters other than that because if it does the cold has only 1 place to go - NW Europe...

S

This I think is about as much detail as any of us need at the minute , the models are looking good for prolonged cold , and I suppose we can say there's a signal there for attacks from the south , very much what Gp has been saying , so yes we all no what that can mean , 

the gfs has a poor orientation on the trough early next week and makes hard work getting the cold in place , the ukmo is much cleaner , but thankfully ALL models give us a true greenie high and one very beat up polar vortex , so suddenly looking very very good for the second half of the winter , 

If I was been really picky I would say ECM and GFS refuse to give us true cold air until fi.  Mainly down to the orientation of the trough ,they get there in the end but late on . Which ironically is exactly what happened last January from that northerly around the same time of year ! But much better Synoptics this year and really looking on the northern hemisphere view , but like I said no point in looking at detail when it's still over 100 hours away , 

so the main pointers seem to be 

favourable high pressure moving north through the Atlantic into Greenland , 

WWA directly into the pole thanks to the deep trough over North America 

tanking -AO/NAO

one beaten and distressed vortex 

a deep trough to the east of uk fuelling the winds from northerly quarters 

possible attacks from the southwest bringing battle ground scenarios (aka 2010)!! 

Let winter commence 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast