Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Met4Cast]

The GFS 6Z continues the amplified trend. 

 

EDIT: Actually, if anything it seems to have improved on the 0z 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Daniel Smith

[tight isobar]

And up she goes on 6z

Targeting the link @greenland-polar heigh...one can only imagine coming synoptics! !!

[Cloud 10]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

06z at t132, LP more SE over UK than 00z.  The LP way to our SW, how will that interact with it?  Very favourably on 00z as in ..it didn't...let's see.

 

06 z continues on very favourbale theme.....astounding really.....its got me if it comes off, didn't expect to see this for a few weeks yet.

 

BFTP

 

06z  looks to be going for the Greenland high/Arctic high join up.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

t198 0z

 

t192 06z....perfection...better again

 

BFTP

 

Edit...indeed C10 it sure does

Edited January 6, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[london and south east kent]

Hi all looking very good now for a longer cold spell and snow ..

[Yarmy]

06z GFS spins up and intensifies a small low off the coast of Canada at T180 which helps pump the heights into Greenland:

 

[Troubleatmill]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

t198 0z

 

t192 06z....perfection...better again

 

BFTP

Just look at the troughs in that Northerly too, band after band of snow showers moving through on that!

[Singularity]

Another step further with the mid-Atlantic ridge on the 06z det. 00z on left, 06z on right:

Notice the more vertical (i.e. south to north - using the Murr approach there) alignment of those high heights. The Scandi shortwave is also further east which helps pull the cold down quicker, for those who aren't as patient.

Speaking of shortwaves, this run has one developing in the southern North Sea on Tuesday so a  bit closer to that ECM/UKMO event but still no dice there. The cold air hasn't made it nearly as far south either but I'm being picky about what is essentially the chance of an appetizer so... no need to worry about it too much so long as the guidance beyond that continues to support that blocking to the NW and Sceuro trough 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

bababababoom

BFTP

[tight isobar]

The polar vortex looking more akin to a deflated car tyre...after driving flat for a long stretch. ..

 

[Cloud 10]

Huge pool of cold air available and nowhere to go at day 8/9.

 

[joggs]

Still along way to go though peeps so I'd expect more downgrades and upgrades.So don't get too disheartened when downgrades come along because cold is as good as on its way now.Surprised the mo outlook hasn't upgraded(from a coldie point of view) 

[coldcomfort]

25 minutes ago, icedust said:

Well what an interesting set of charts is developing.  The duration of the upcoming cold spell seems to hinge on developments over the Tropic of Cancer! Watch how models develop a very low latitude low over the Bahamas in the next 24-48h and move this northeast over the next week. Where this ends up is crucial to where the Atlantic High develops. If this Low gets to the Azores this will allow a decent ridge to anchor north to Greenland and not slip south.   On the other hand the T+240 ECM keeps the low far west possibly resulting in some decent northwards warm advection over the Atlantic and causing a good ridge north to Iceland/Greenland and block eastward flow south of those islands. On yet the other hand the whole development of this low latitude low may fizzle and we get back to a boring westerly breaking through again. Incidentally, I for one am 100% convinced our record breaking December was caused by 'global warming' with that very persistent warm block out of Africa and across Europe for the whole month. Is this forecast Tropical low also due to 'global warming' or an El Nino feature?

Just posted something similar in the moans  thread....won't feel totally comfortable until that LP has both formed and at least begun to drift towards the Azores, because as you rightly say ECM keep it far enough away to allow heights to lower across Greeny and 'milder' Atlantic air to return. High stakes game unfolding here, with still much to be resolved before dusting off the toboggans.

Edited January 6, 2016 by coldcomfort

[Met4Cast]

Christ on a bike. What Polar Vortex? 

 

6z GFS has taken has seen and raised the overnight runs. If we see this trend continue later in the day we'll be laughing our way to snow city.

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Christ on a bike. What Polar Vortex? 

 

6z GFS has taken has seen and raised the overnight runs. If we see this trend continue later in the day we'll be laughing our way to snow city.

but what sort of time frame do you look at to say "It's locked and loaded and ready to go"?

[seabreeze86]

Well Well just had a look through the overnight runs couldent believe my eyes

Then this came out, locked in cold from there, still a couple of hurdles to go though.

We dont want the Azores low interacting with the low over the UK we need to keep it cut off, Unlikely i think  but something to watch.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Well I think it's fair to say , I don't think any of us saw this coming , as in , so potent so soon , a 3 day cold snap was touted by some , glazier point , it's fair to say , please never leave us again ! But we'v really gathered momentum over the last few days pointing toward more prolonged cold , so maybe this winter really is gonna be a winter of two halves ? 

Anyway let's all enjoy the ride , and hopefully all of see some snow next week and beyond , but please refrain from despondency when the models 'downgrade' it's an evolving situation and it's very much like a rolarcoaster , but try not to get sucked into every new model that comes out , leave the specifics for inside t72 , just focus on the northern hemispheric view to get an idea of the Synoptics , and the annomalys John Holmes relies on to get an understanding of what pattern we are going into .

very excited though of some proper winter weather for the first in 2.5 years for many south of Manchester .

[tight isobar]

That's some very pronounced blocking.

And shuts down the Atlantic core.

Could be on a road to some very prolonged cold settlement. 

But still some caveats. ..

Not many though be the looks!!!

[Ravelin]

I think I just wet myself!

Depths of FI but not only did the GFS 6z eventually link the Greenland and Arctic highs, it also linked them over to Siberia too. Pity it'll never happen, will it?

Edited January 6, 2016 by Ravelin

[Cloud 10]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

That's some very pronounced blocking.

And shuts down the Atlantic core.

Could be on a road to some very prolonged cold settlement. 

But still some caveats. ..

Not many though be the looks!!!

 

An amazing chart is that,with warm air being syphoned from Spain all the way to western Greenland!

 

850 anomalies show it well..

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Can anyone find the post/research which said about the -ve AO in July and the corresponding -ve AO in following Jan?

 

BFTP

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Can anyone find the post/research which said about the -ve AO in July and the corresponding -ve AO in following Jan?

 

BFTP

It was either Tamara or Nouska that did the post think it was in the December thread....

[Polar Maritime]

Some stunning charts being shown by the GFS this morning, A long drawn Northerly flow with the PV shattered. It's all coming together pretty fast.. Expect further choppy runs in FI.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Yarmy]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Can anyone find the post/research which said about the -ve AO in July and the corresponding -ve AO in following Jan?

 

BFTP

You mean this one?

http://www.wsi.com/blog/traders-things-that-make-you-go-hmmmm-regarding-the-upcoming-winter

 

 

[Neilsouth]

I've spent the past month trying to get access to the site after forgetting my password, turns out it was the username isn't the original one ooops!

 

Anyway back on topic, it makes a change to see models like this and staying like this when you wake up first thing in the morning, but my question is what stops the low pressure over the uk next week, staying over the uk or filling. And not allowing the cold to filter south?