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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The model rollercoaster ride continues this morning. Happily after the rather underwhelming outputs of yesterday evening cold prospects have improved this morning.

The ECM and UKMO do suggest a developing shortwave running quite close to the south of the UK and there does seem sufficient cold to tap into to bring some snow on the northern flank of that, at this range though its difficult to pin down exactly how far north/south this might be.

The ECM also brings several shortwaves se from near Greenland which would engage the colder air, again though detail wise we'll have to wait to closer the time for that.

Although there are still differences upstream the GFS and ECM manage to find general agreement later with a toppling ridge, as this happens there could be an east/ne flow window.

Overall I think enough this morning to dust off the ear muffs/ bobble hat and open the wax for the sledge. In terms of waxing this I think we need a few more runs just to be sure! I'm a bit superstitious given the propensity for things to go wrong for the UK when it comes to snow.

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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd
  • Weather Preferences: very cold or very hot
  • Location: caernarfon, Gwynedd

So the ecm is flattening things too quickly then!?? 

Screenshot_2016-01-06-08-34-51.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

With all the excitement in here this morning I thought I'd throw this chart out there incase anyone had forgotten what they look like. Snow for the UK please at T 24! :D

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.b12a779c7a672c8

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Regarding the ECM being too flat this is quite ironic because the operational run is often accused of being overly amplified!

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Just now, radiohead said:

ECM ENS mean at T192.

 

EDU0-192.GIF?06-12

Lovely, I think coldies will all take that

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
11 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Well if the ECM is the worse (but better than yesterday) then things aren't looking too bad at all, a step in the right direction overnight...

ECM would deliver very cold nights and ice days for some, the snow signal also not limited to northern areas like previous runs but I'm always a bit sceptical of lying snow charts.

ecmt9.thumb.png.982491a2107a24ee83ab285decmt10.thumb.png.c516bf68354e4f3ef332b61ecmt11.thumb.png.4765286200f5ca3bdbb3635ecms15.thumb.png.d3995753b229d872de83ae1

 

 

 

Rightly so, as they are experimental and therefore to be taken with a shovel of salt, I think.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the ECM being too flat this is quite ironic because the operational run is often accused of being overly amplified!

Ecm is just being an attention seeker :)

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
13 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

With all the excitement in here this morning I thought I'd throw this chart out there incase anyone had forgotten what they look like. Snow for the UK please at T 24! :D

prectypeuktopo.thumb.png.b12a779c7a672c8

Can I BANK that, it's my Birthday on the 21st, shame it's somewhere around about 21,600 minutes away. :D 

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
10 minutes ago, beng said:
Thought this was interesting - Joe B thinks we're now approaching the same point in the Enso cycle that coincided with the cold period in the 09/10 winter and can expect similar results for Europe as a whole.
 

 

I quite like Mr Laminate Floor's chutzpah (when he's talking about weather anyway), but why are the North Atlantic SSTs key now, but not during the record mild of December? We had a persistent large Atlantic high during late summer, and a persistent Atlantic trough during December, yet the SST anomaly has been more or less the same throughout. On that evidence they make little difference, or at least are easily overridden by larger atmospheric patterns. 

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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

From Twitter

NMME 200mb height anomaly forecast starts to illustrate risk for more high-latitude blocking Feb-March

CX_TvQqWcAAEbXR.thumb.png.80f61a467f3029

 

CX_TvSYW8AAs8rE.thumb.png.ae997450ce340a

 

CX_TvTfW8AAoR4q.thumb.png.f3c31c2f86e466

 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Looking at the 00z EPS mean, strong +height ridge signal from the N Atlantic to the north pole and deep Euro trough right up to day 15, albeit the anomaly relaxing by day 15.

So all-in-all, looks like a cold Am or Pm flow will be locked in for a bit, possibly at least the 2st Jan.

The 00z EPS control similarly has this signal ...

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Ecm is just being an attention seeker :)

Lol! Well the main thing this morning is that its earlier output has improved, no coincidence that this has come because it doesn't throw that PV lobe ne into  central  Greenland but more towards the west there between T120 and T168hrs. This allows the Arctic high to nose further sw. Its also slower at bringing PV lobes from the east west. As long as we keep seeing these better changes in the earlier timeframe then we can slowly see it improve its later output.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
13 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

I quite like Mr Laminate Floor's chutzpah (when he's talking about weather anyway), but why are the North Atlantic SSTs key now, but not during the record mild of December? We had a persistent large Atlantic high during late summer, and a persistent Atlantic trough during December, yet the SST anomaly has been more or less the same throughout. On that evidence they make little difference, or at least are easily overridden by larger atmospheric patterns. 

I suspect it has something to do with the Enso pattern be a full basin pattern in the early winter - overriding any Atlantic signal, but since then I believe it's begun to weaken somewhat (most especially in the eastern side - enso 1/2) - so that it's becoming more Nino Modaki -

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

and the Atlantic signal can come into play a bit more.  That said, the Met Office (I think) were more of the view that the Atlantic signal favoured a positive NAO - and I don't really see a tripole in the current anomalies.  

anomnight.1.4.2016.gif

Maybe if there's someone here that's a member of Weatherbell - they might be able to comment?  Another thing to notice in the SSTA profile is the PDO pattern is just beginning to shows signs of heading negative again (same thing happened in the late 1950s - it switched positive for a couple of years, before plunging). 

Edited by beng
added another link
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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
23 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the 00z EPS mean, strong +height ridge signal from the N Atlantic to the north pole and deep Euro trough right up to day 15, albeit the anomaly relaxing by day 15.

So all-in-all, looks like a cold Am or Pm flow will be locked in for a bit, possibly at least the 2st Jan.

The 00z EPS control similarly has this signal ...

Brilliant news, Thanks. 

So your thoughts aren't too far off what I said yesterday when I stated the following. " The deepest cold is modelled to be just out of reach of our Isles right now but the cold will build ever stronger from approximately the 11th January onwards. Air Temperatures by then would range from roughly 4c below average to possibly as much as 8c below average which for most parts of the UK would bring snow potential. The cool to cold weather stays with us throughout the GFS 12z FI timeframes from the 12th through to the 21st and on the ECM it should stick around until at least the 15th January which is the farthest out the operational run goes. COLD WEATHER IS SEEMINGLY ON ITS WAY! "

Yes, granted I was deliberately not looking to the specifics in my original post but why should we? Let's get the cold in firstly. D5 onwards is where its at hopefully the cold spell will have some LEGS too.

 

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the 00z EPS mean, strong +height ridge signal from the N Atlantic to the north pole and deep Euro trough right up to day 15, albeit the anomaly relaxing by day 15.

So all-in-all, looks like a cold Am or Pm flow will be locked in for a bit, possibly at least the 2st Jan.

The 00z EPS control similarly has this signal ...

Nice Nick, its good to see ECM and GFS come on board with UKMO to a faster evolution  to the colder scenario. Snow is what we are looking for and I think this chart could produce the goods fairly widespread. Despite the Met Office signals of a brief cold spell, it looks this could now be extended to at least a 5 day spell, possibly with an extension well with-in our grasps. Our portal service indicated last evening of a substantial snow event in the Alps by the middle of next week with  Ac/Am air mass of some depth. Looking at the British Isles snow prospects, probabaly as good since March 2013 with a heady mix of Ac recycled out of Scandinavia to the NE and Am/ Pm mix as you mention, especially out west with possible disturbance. in the air stream. Lets all enjoy when its comes, however long it lasts !

C

UW144-21 (2).gif

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Posted
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
  • Location: Royston, Herts 76m asl
13 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

From Twitter

NMME 200mb height anomaly forecast starts to illustrate risk for more high-latitude blocking Feb-March

CX_TvQqWcAAEbXR.thumb.png.80f61a467f3029

 

CX_TvSYW8AAs8rE.thumb.png.ae997450ce340a

 

CX_TvTfW8AAoR4q.thumb.png.f3c31c2f86e466

 

 

 

 

Great charts, thanks, but what are the dates?

Point of interest is gradual migration (and strengthening) of anomalous HP from central/western Canada towards Greenland.  The last one has it centred over Hudson Bay.  You would expect it to continue slowly east towards Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
11 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

00Z EPS pretty good again this morning - strong scandi trough by the end and -NAO becomes  more west based by day 15 . Good strength block Atlantic wise. Control shows two sliders 

Interesting.  Do you see a risk of it getting too 'West' Based?  I'm hoping with the strong Scandi trough, we ought to have more chance than usual with a West base neg NAO - even down in Surrey where I am?

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