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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Not a bad 10 day mean :D

gensnh-21-1-228.png

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

GFS ens anomaly

gensnh-21-5-240.pnggensnh-21-5-300.pnggensnh-21-5-360.png

Below average heights east/south east of the UK, above average heights to the west/north west throughout. 

The anomaly at day 10 is very strong this morning suggesting good agreement on a really pronounced ridge in the Atlantic.

So GFS aside, it is interesting to see the UKMO throw the exact same evolution with our UK/Scandi trough from day 4-6 as the 12z did. Food for thought but could the UKMO be that wrong at just 4 days out?

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Hold the phone, what do we have here.....

ECM1-120.GIF?06-12

UKMO for the same time

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

The ECM has found that secondary system the UKMO spotted yesterday afternoon, the ECM is pushing cold air southwards much earlier on this run.

Yup as stated with my post on UKMO, snowline moving south from 96h. I could see my first snow of the Winter as early as Sunday night/Monday morning.:yahoo:

 

Hard to complain because this is probably a snowy chart but shocked ECM is so flat upstream compared to other output.

ECH1-144.GIF?06-12

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

Chilly ECM at 168 as the Atlantic block holds. Think it will only improve this evening

ECH0-168.GIF?06-12

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I am now pretty confident winter is coming, and it will be cold enough to snow in the whole UK - if we get some moisture in the Northerlies!!

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

A pretty good day 7 chart to me.

ECM1-168.GIF?06-12

Note the shallow low over northern Ireland, in cold air that would bring snow (850s of -6C), that system will work south/south east so at day 8.....

ECM1-192.GIF?06-12ECM0-192.GIF?06-12

A proper northerly flow. Scotland has been cold for 4 days now already. A decent run overall.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

ECM is good with Atleast 4 days of decent cold weather, not quite as good as the UKMO and GFS with regards heights into Greenland, that may change though. 

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Cracking GFS 00z, majority of ens going cold, just those very mild stragglers pulling up the mean 

Also a lovey FI Scandinavia beast ha

 

image.png

image.gif

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

Ecm much better than last nights run!think ecm is playing catch up here!!!ukmo and gfs are awesome!!looks like a cold spell is only 4 days away!!

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Much better looking gfs 00z this morning and not a bad looking ecm either. Just remember it's only one run though. Think we will see some more wild runs in days ahead. But remember if it starts looking better don't tell your family that's fatal lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
32 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I am now pretty confident winter is coming, and it will be cold enough to snow in the whole UK - if we get some moisture in the Northerlies!!

So Ali,worth waiting for that good old fashioned change as the year turns,do you remember our conversation in December.Happy days

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Posted
  • Location: Sydney, Australia
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Sydney, Australia

FInally, I hope there are a lot of people a lot happier this morning. GFS and UKMO looking great, but this is what the ens were telling us yesterday. ECM not as great, but still a 4 day cold snow which will no doubt see a few snow potentials. We are starting to move in to the stage where we can say a cold spell (of at least 4 days) is looking more likely than not, with potential for longer. Great stuff. I moved north to Manchester almost 2 1/2 years ago thinking I would see more snow than down south, but this would be my first proper cold 'spell' if it verifies. Exciting times for most of the UK IMO. And thanks to those that have stayed positive, or at least optimistic, despite the endless negativity yesterday! Here's to some more crackin' runs today!

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Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL

Think I will stick with the UKMO for this spell as it has been the most consistent with the GFS and ECM now playing catch up with it. 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

The models continue to play around with the upstream pattern and its interaction with the developing polar high.

thr ops will continue to be fairly unreliable post day 5/6 as they generally are.  And what they have wrong at day 5/6 will be exacerbated beyond that as the run progresses. Sadly, you need to rely on the ens mean/anomolys and spreads  for the best idea (for the time being) . GEFS 00z seems to have come on board with the eps so maybe we are approaching the timescale where the output will begin to gain some consistency.

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Spare a thought for the poor daffodils' of this world at this time and the lonely people in their wood sheds

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECU0-192.gif

Yeah,even us here in cornwall in the cold air:)

Haven't seen a snowflake since Jan 13,getting exited now.

Knocker's shield must have malfunctioned! 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.

A lot of folk view the NWP outputs and their evolutions in many a different way and I guess that is the fun of the MOD thread, although it can be a proverbial nightmare for newbies, which we must all bear in mind when posting. However, having not yet seen the overnight runs I am glad one or two of those trusted forum members are suggesting things are forecast to be largely as they were, some twelve hours ago. The reason I'm pleased is that the turning colder signal is a solid one and the ground might yet turn to a similar state this time next week with frosts and perhaps something wintry around, who'd have thought it. :wink:

 

Here is the link to my post offering up analysis of yesterday's 12z for those that haven't seen it, the GFS 0z remains on trend from the 12th January and so does the ECM 0z. All good stuff for coldies. :friends:

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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