Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[tight isobar]

A terrible shame on all counts.

Some good knowledge in here...

Very sad to see some of the quotes/comments. ..

Life s short the weather is endless. .peace out...

[Polar Maritime]

As Scott kindly requested lets please move on to polite discussion in here around the model output's. Any more off topic posts will be removed also. If you do not agree with a post hit the report button instead of discussing it in here.

Thankyou. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

17th - 7th in 1983 Steve..... He's just pointing people in the direction of how that cold spell unfolded as an example of how this one might. 

Maybe - but it doesnt alltogether read like that as citing the models to the 20th indicates it runs along the same dateline

anyway bed beckons -

Edited January 6, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Sperrin]

I am no expert but this looks promising from Michael Ventrice...

 

[lorenzo]

Well that's been a boring day - eh?

Let's stick on track with the models, it's the 06th January - plenty more runs to come, don't let the model fatigue win!

Re Forecasts made, that may or may not be correct - weather is full of successes and busts. I know !

Re Timings, these evolve and always will, again - I know !

Please keep it civil folks, there are ways to debate / discuss / quote and respond that are decent, and there are ways to just come across as well....

I think it's time people all round not only respected different ideas, forecasts, methods, predictions -  but also thought about where the discussion  would be without these contributions. If we are going to challenge each other's viewpoints can we do it in a less dismissive manner. Thanks. 

[SMU]

I will just add this on the discussion from earlier -

these are the dates quoted as the template period 17th - 7th jan/feb 83

This is the NAO for these dates

 

There isnt much interest there with a low value of -0.6 but a higher peak of positive NAO at +1.34

so these dates that are touted - do not seem very significant in terms of metrics - there was an atlantic ridge early feb but no classic -NAO 

again if someone is citing these dates surely factually they would add credibilty to the forecast?........

S

Edited January 6, 2016 by Steve Murr

[A Frayed Knot]

A wee bit Sad reading back at the Bickering and Moans (Why) ? For us Newbies trying to understand Models and Weather ' i myself give up ! Some are saying Cold and then not cold ' others are saying Wet But warm Wet ' who gives a Flook ' i myself will be happy to see 'Sunny Spells and lots of cold days ' Fed up to my Gumbs with this drismal warm weather , Bring the Cold on i say . We need a Massive dry out here in the UK ' I feel the pain for all North from here who had Flooding .

[Aliaalu]

2 hours ago, booferking said:

Not true we had snowfall in the middle of Dec last month at 60msl cookstown Northern Ireland and the snow lay to 3 inches and lasted 2 days on the ground if the air temperature cold enough snow will lay.

Was just about to say about Cookstown. I ran cross country there that day 12th Dec (see my profile pic) and nearly got frostbite.  Pink on the chart obviously doesn't rule out some white stuff! Sorry I'm not knowledgeable to add anything if substance to this discussion but just wanted to say as a lurker I greatly enjoy reading and learning.... Even the occasional bickeriing is entertaining, thank you!

 

 

[Swave Snow]

2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to clarify ( & it may be that im being overly fussy )

seeing as this is a public forum -

Saturday you posted saying the key was quote [ classical -NAO 25th & 26th Jan]

then this morning it was the 23rd - 

now this evening its the 17th - 7th of Feb For this magical period -

if your projection is focussed on an event occuring on the 20th triggering -NAO on the 23rd - whats the excitment for the 6 days proceeding that - whatever it is is a long 6 days to happen....

take this whatever way you like - but are you just plucking dates out inline with how the models may now develop seeing as the 17th ( all of sudden ) seems to coincide with what the means project to be the second bite of the cherry....

in 1 day of modelling an adjustment of 6 days in your comments.....

anyone else would be accused of selective thinking...

 

Steve only a few days ago you told us to bin the models.

 

What's the difference here or are you trying the mental game of using reverse psychology 

[Duane S.]

I haven't been able to keep up with proceedings very well over the past few days due to a lack of signal. But seeing as the plus side is spending all day surrounded by powder snow in the Alps, heck I can live with that.

I just wanted to say though how painful reading the past few pages have been. In amongst the plenty of excellent posts from the usual few, there has been some frankly ridiculous attempts to point score. Possibly to try mask over their own previous forecast fails... Also it does seem that once certain people have latched onto an milder or colder viewpoint, boy do they stick with it! 

Anyway, people need stop fretting about the detail (discuss by all means though), it can and will be changing daily in circumstances like these. 

Things are rarely straightforward when we in the midst of a pattern change to cold (and we are) and this time around is certainly going to be no different.

Let's just enjoy the next few weeks, however things may turn out, after all these synoptics (and IMO they are VERY interesting indeed for mid month onwards) are why 99% of us frequent this forum every winter in the first place isn't it!?

[Ali1977]

Well, if it wast 4am I'd expect there would be a few comments on the 00z GFS, infinitely better at 144 with WAA heading into Greenland.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Ali1977

[ALL ABOARD]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, if it wast 4am I'd expect there would be a few comments on the 00z GFS, infinitely better at 144 with WAA heading into Greenland.

Couldnt agree more, ive noticed over the last few runs the gfs wants to strengthen the arctic high. At one point it reaches 1055mb hopefully this trend continues .. could be an interesting FI coming up?

 

 

Ukmo goes the same way could be a very busy day in here today

Edited January 6, 2016 by ALL ABOARD

[Mucka]

4 hours ago, SylvainTV said:

The ne

[Abyss]

UKMO T144

GFS T144

 

GFS an improvement on the previous run

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, if it wast 4am I'd expect there would be a few comments on the 00z GFS, infinitely better at 144 with WAA heading into Greenland.

Stunning UKMO Ali, snowline pushing South from 96h really

WAA all the way into Greenland and look at the Scandi high and Arctic high as well - if that comes off we will be going from mild wet nightmare to Winter wonderland in under a week.

Also much improved GFS as well, though not quite on the same level as UKMO

 

Definitely game on for a cold spell and not snap judging by this mornings output

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Couldnt agree more, ive noticed over the last few runs the gfs wants to strengthen the arctic high. At one point it reaches 1055mb hopefully this trend continues .. could be an interesting FI coming up?

 

 

Ukmo goes the same way could be a very busy day in here today

Oh yeah, that is a great chart. 

[Snowman.]

UKMO has managed to squeeze some heights to the NE which looks very pleasing. 

[Mucka]

9 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO has managed to squeeze some heights to the NE which looks very pleasing. 

I can't get over just how good that chart is. The high building over Scandi would lock the trough into central Europe and lock in the cold - it is one of best charts I've seen at that range, not just this Winter, but for a few years.

And I don't feel like I'm ramping, that's how good it is. 

All we need now is for it to verify. 

 

GFS tries to rebuild the ridge in FI - all gravy this morning (except perhaps GEM)

Vortex? What vortex?

Winter is coming 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mucka

[Ali1977]

Massive ECM coming up in an hour...fingers crossed it backs these WAA signals.

[Ali1977]

GFS control and ensembles follow the Op and UKMO with much more WAA into Greenland by day 6.

[Mucka]

13 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

GFS control and ensembles follow the Op and UKMO with much more WAA into Greenland by day 6.

Yes huge turnaround and upgrade within GFS ensembles on the Atlantic ridge and Greenland high chances.

I am normally cautious about just one run and all that but this looks like a turning point to me with the building blocks coming within the reliable 5 day period. For me any prolonged cold was in doubt if the Atlantic ridge was overrun but that has been massively upgraded this morning.

I will be amazed if ECM doesn't come on board, fully expect it to.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Mucka

[The Beast From The East]

This to me this morning looking at these charts is a W.T.F!! moments as I believe Ian Brown once said.  Lovely start to the morning.  Just look at all the cold air filtering across Europe and the UK. What a turnaround to what  we had just a couple of weeks ago.  I'm not saying it will happen but imagin going forward about 20 years and then going back through the model archives to the winter of 2015/16 and then watching it all unfold with the Euro Slugg giving the crazy mild temps for so long and then in a few weeks a complete turnaround . You would be saying to yourself " I bet they didn't see that coming" 

What I do miss is the posts from Tetis or I believe used to be know as The beast from the east or The Eye in the sky. Does anyone know why he's not been on here as I really miss his clearly explained in depth posts. For a novice like me he always make it easy for me to understand. 

 

Please let the ECM follow on the same.  

Edited January 6, 2016 by Siberian Xpress
Typing error

[Man With Beard]

Well the amount of comments at 5.30am says it all - GFS after T160 is ... stunning. All the way to the end, cold arrives and just gets deeper and deeper, snow takes a while to arrive but boy it does eventually. 

I would say "just one run" but UKMO looks well set for cold too.

[Mucka]

GFS 00z ensembles for Central England 

[The PIT]

GFS stunning need the ECM needs to follow suit. GFS keeps the cold while ECM shows a toppler. Next stage we need the cold to keep moving forward rather than hanging around in FI