Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[PolarWarsaw]

Well, another interesting day of modeling. 

Unfortunately, it looks to me like the chances of the 'deeper' cold keep getting pushed back and back, with the phasing out of the proper bitter uppers, replaced by uppers condusive to snow for most, but quite a bit of lowland England would be right on the margins of rain/sleet and snow overall today. The GFS TENDS to be a trend picker and 3 of it's last 4 runs have delayed the meaningful cold from getting here. Just 2 nights ago we saw bitter uppers making there way in to cover the country by next Tuesday...then it became Wednesday...today they have been phased down and pushed back even more. 

 That being said, I expect next week to be much colder, with frosts and the chance of a few flurries, more snow in specific and expected locations than most. Overall, a turn for the better and I like the way that RJS is thinking, remembering that we still have GP's torpedo to come in 2-3 weeks time - something we can all potentially keep ourselves excited with over the next few weeks. 

We have overall edged away from dramatic cold, truly exciting SNOWY charts today somewhat. So to me it looks like a cold spell at first...with a 50-50 chance of either mild/atlantic or something truly epic coming thereafter. As they say, let's get the cold in first and see what happens from then on in/

Plenty of model watching to come methinks folks!

Edited January 7, 2016 by PolarWarsaw

[Geordiesnow]

Well the 18Z certainly wont be backing the UKMO output, no real surprise there sadly, it does look more and more likely the trough will faff around over the UK for quite a bit before finally moving away hopefully. 

Tomorrow morning runs should hopefully confirm this either way though. 

Also to add, with the trough slightly further West, expect yet another delay to the proper colder air, just to think just yesterday both the ECM and UKMO were showing a Northerly flow for Sunday from that low/trough, now it looks like we will be in a SW'ly from that trough! Small details makes a huge difference

Edited January 7, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[P-M]

5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Well, another interesting day of modeling. 

Unfortunately, it looks to me like the chances of the 'deeper' cold keep getting pushed back and back, with the phasing out of the proper bitter uppers, replaced by uppers condusive to snow for most, but quite a bit of lowland England would be right on the margins of rain/sleet and snow overall today. The GFS TENDS to be a trend picker and 3 of it's last 4 runs have delayed the meaningful cold from getting here. Just 2 nights ago we saw bitter uppers making there way in to cover the country by next Tuesday...then it became Wednesday...today they have been phased down and pushed back even more. 

 That being said, I expect next week to be much colder, with frosts and the chance of a few flurries, more snow in specific and expected locations than most. Overall, a turn for the better and I like the way that RJS is thinking, remembering that we still have GP's torpedo to come in 2-3 weeks time - something we can all potentially keep ourselves excited with over the next few weeks. 

We have overall edged away from dramatic cold, truly exciting SNOWY charts today somewhat. So to me it looks like a cold spell at first...with a 50-50 chance of either mild/atlantic or something truly epic coming thereafter. As they say, let's get the cold in first and see what happens from then on in/

Plenty of model watching to come methinks folks!

Have we?  I am genuinely interested in this and not a dig I am just curious as to what your take is on this as reading the last few pages it is at odds?

[radiohead]

Hmm. The ridge is skinnier and further west again. Will this go the way of yesterday's 18Z?

[Snowman.]

GFS is shaping up to be worse with further pushes west. Really could do with some pushes east to get the cold in faster and the block stronger. But it's the GFS so I don't know if I can believe it.

Edited January 7, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Mucka]

GFS really prolonging the agony with its West based ouput.

That ridge is all there is between us and the Atlantic so we don't want that Icelandic shortwave to develop.

Hopefully it will come around tomorrow and we will see a blend something between ECM and UKMO.

[gottolovethisweather]

40 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Unfortunately, it looks to me like the chances of the 'deeper' cold keep getting pushed back and back, with the phasing out of the proper bitter uppers, replaced by uppers condusive to snow for most, but quite a bit of lowland England would be right on the margins of rain/sleet and snow overall today. The GFS TENDS to be a trend picker and 3 of it's last 4 runs have delayed the meaningful cold from getting here. That being said, I expect next week to be much colder, with frosts and the chance of a few flurries, more snow in specific and expected locations than most. 

We have overall edged away from dramatic cold, truly exciting SNOWY charts today somewhat. A bog standard cold spell at first...with a 50-50 chance of either mild/atlantic or something truly epic coming thereafter. 

 

Certainly possible that may well be the case but personally I don't buy into it, we are on the brink of a reasonably notable spell of cold weather in my opinion. Whilst I agree also with what you say about the dramatic charts as you call them, these were always just out of reach i.e. the charts which ranged from D7 to D10 on the ECM yesterday and the day before. I believe these were the ones eulogised over but also the low-res of the last two day's GFS 12zs were tasty throughout too. The cold is definitely now within reach and more appropriately it is moving into the reliable. Additionally, some snow-making 850 charts are within range from broadly D5 onwards.

 

For those trying to gather a general idea, I'd suggest that too many folk over-analyse each run and they should simply sit back and check the actual progression of the runs, more especially those inter-runs 00z with 00z and 12z with 12z as each day passes. Slowly slowly catchy monkey yes, but it will soon be brass monkey weather for all parts of the UK, you mark my words.

Edited January 7, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Geordiesnow]

Well the GFS18Z is most certainly wet rather than white so far but I feel it could be getting interesting from hear on in after 120 hours, ridge looks okay too me and its too early to say whether it will become west based or not. 

I don't like the trend of the trough just basically faffing around the UK, why can't it just not move off Eastwards like it probably would of done in the 60's! Either way, it looks like fair play to the GFS for getting this detail right for the UK unless tomorrow morning runs produce one U turn and trend back towards the UKMO. 

Be more flooding concerns unfortunately I fear if this trough is going to do what it looks increasingly likely forecast to do. 

[PolarWarsaw]

2 minutes ago, P-M said:

Have we?  I am genuinely interested in this and not a dig I am just curious as to what your take is on this as reading the last few pages it is at odds?

IMO we have. 

As mentioned in my post, just 48 hours ago the ECM showed cold uppers reaching the south coast by late Sunday night and Monday morning. The solution, was in with a chance was obviously the smoothest possible route to potential cold. Since then, we have slowly but surely pushed back the cold, or the deep cold uppers that are 'comfy' for lowland England snow right back to Monday...Tuesday...then Wednesday..and then today they have been phased out virtually all together, right into the deep realms of FI. 

Once that starts happening, you do start to wonder whether getting the freezing, truly deep, outstanding charts in this period of weather is going to happen. 

Obviously, it's still a case of getting the cold here and seeing what happens, but if the charts from 48 hours or so ago were 10/10 then the OVERALL picture today is much more uneasy at a 6.5 or so. We have gone from a solution that looks clean and smooth, to one that has hurdles and big questions over certain periods of time. 

Let's get the cold here first, but I think this will turn out to be a rather regular 'cold and frosty' sort of week, nothing to look back on or remember particularly fondly. However, I'm in line with BFTP/Tamara/GP/RJS in that I think a colder 'second bite' is on it's way at some point between now and mid February - probably the end of the last week in Jan. 

[inghams85]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

IMO we have. 

As mentioned in my post, just 48 hours ago the ECM showed cold uppers reaching the south coast by late Sunday night and Monday morning. The solution, was in with a chance was obviously the smoothest possible route to potential cold. Since then, we have slowly but surely pushed back the cold, or the deep cold uppers that are 'comfy' for lowland England snow right back to Monday...Tuesday...then Wednesday..and then today they have been phased out virtually all together, right into the deep realms of FI. 

Once that starts happening, you do start to wonder whether getting the freezing, truly deep, outstanding charts in this period of weather is going to happen. 

Obviously, it's still a case of getting the cold here and seeing what happens, but if the charts from 48 hours or so ago were 10/10 then the OVERALL picture today is much more uneasy at a 6.5 or so. We have gone from a solution that looks clean and smooth, to one that has hurdles and big questions over certain periods of time. 

Let's get the cold here first, but I think this will turn out to be a rather regular 'cold and frosty' sort of week, nothing to look back on or remember particularly fondly. However, I'm in line with BFTP/Tamara/GP/RJS in that I think a colder 'second bite' is on it's way at some point between now and mid February - probably the end of the last week in Jan. 

Theres snow chances and uppers from as early as T-144. We don't need minus 10 uppers to see good falling snow. Your expectations are way too high

[Mucka]

120h comparisons JMA. UKMO, ECM, GFS

 

I think GFS 18z is unlikely to verify looking at those.

 

JMA extended is now out - cold

 

[January Snowstorm]

The 18z is not good in reliable time frame upto 144 hrs. 

Cold delayed yet again

Let's see what the rest of the run brings

[PolarWarsaw]

Just now, inghams85 said:

Theres snow chances and uppers from as early as T-144. We don't need minus 10 uppers to see good falling snow. Your expectations are way too high

Yeah...T-144...7 days away...just like the cold and snow chances were....48 hours ago. They should be moving FORWARD, getting closer to us. Any experienced model watcher (and I'm not even remotely experienced in comparison to some) will ALWAYS advise caution on looking at charts at that kind of range. 

Lowland England, without cold prior to a snow event and without any sort of elevation GENERALLY need -6 uppers to feel 'comfy' about PPN falling as snow. 

Uppers look great at T144 tonight...but they did 2 days ago...and just to re-iterate my point, they haven't been moved forward, they've gone backwards and watered themselves down. 

[northwestsnow]

I honestly dont think gfs has a clue- the differences between the azores low on 12z and 18z are huge!!

Also i'd like to add gfs gets right on my breasts!!

Edited January 7, 2016 by northwestsnow

[mushymanrob]

The noaa anomaly charts never (yet)  have supported the amplified gfs runs,  so deep cold that those runs suggested were always on dodgy ground given that the noaa 8-14 day mean are more accurate then the gfs for that period.  

 

The deep cold was always in fi.

 

What lies ahead though is anyones guess as theres so much uncertainty excep the fact that it will get colder.  

[Harsh Climate]

Hopefully that deepening low coming off the east coast of america drags plenty of WAA up the western side of greenland, this run may be good yet

 

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

IMO we have. 

As mentioned in my post, just 48 hours ago the ECM showed cold uppers reaching the south coast by late Sunday night and Monday morning. The solution, was in with a chance was obviously the smoothest possible route to potential cold. Since then, we have slowly but surely pushed back the cold, or the deep cold uppers that are 'comfy' for lowland England snow right back to Monday...Tuesday...then Wednesday..and then today they have been phased out virtually all together, right into the deep realms of FI. 

Once that starts happening, you do start to wonder whether getting the freezing, truly deep, outstanding charts in this period of weather is going to happen. 

Obviously, it's still a case of getting the cold here and seeing what happens, but if the charts from 48 hours or so ago were 10/10 then the OVERALL picture today is much more uneasy at a 6.5 or so. We have gone from a solution that looks clean and smooth, to one that has hurdles and big questions over certain periods of time. 

Let's get the cold here first, but I think this will turn out to be a rather regular 'cold and frosty' sort of week, nothing to look back on or remember particularly fondly. However, I'm in line with BFTP/Tamara/GP/RJS in that I think a colder 'second bite' is on it's way at some point between now and mid February - probably the end of the last week in Jan. 

Experience will tell you once that starts too happen, then worry and because the 18Z has the initial troughing even further West, it delays and modify the cold air even more, it be umbrellas and raincoats if this run happens, its just simply not cold enough unfortunately. It might eventually turn colder but its FI so detail will change. 

One of the most important detail is in the reliable timeframe(positioning of the trough/trigger low) and I can't see that changing now, my worry is that the models will want this troughing to faff on for ever longer over the UK and you start to think, will the colder air actually ever arrive. The way this winter has gone, I would not bank against the troughing not leaving the UK at all. 

[North East Blizzard]

Just now, Mucka said:

120h comparisons JMA. UKMO, ECM, GFS

 

I think GFS 18z is unlikely to verify looking at those.

 

JMA extended is now out - cold

 

I agree, gfs doesn't look right to me, it could be on to something, but I have my doubts, pretty much on its own. Expecting a backtrack tomorrow, which we have seen, so many times. 

Not even bothering with the rest of the run, will wait for the euros in the morning.

[Continental Climate]

By next Thursday GFS really does look like a dogs dinner. Shortwaves all over the place a slack useless flow, which is no good to man nor beast, just all a bit mehh

[nick sussex]

Nerve wracking stuff. For a minute I thought it was going to phase that shortwave energy with the energy coming off the Azores low. If that happens before the UK troughing is sufficiently se then that would be a catastrophe.

Anyway it did make a move to the Euros in the ne of the USA but I won't be happy till we're 100% sure that the shortwave that the GFS is determined to stick half way across the Atlantic will behave.

 

 

[January Snowstorm]

Dogs dinner is right.

Nothing resolved bar the fact that any proper cold keeps getting delayed.

Wed night now was Monday morning

[tight isobar]

Thus will most likely be deleted. .

But im sorry gfs is way off the mark...its lagging and miss-evolution is as embarrassing as it gets in data output. ...

Its wobbling terribly of late!!!

[snowice]

6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The 18z is not good in reliable time frame upto 144 hrs. 

Cold delayed yet again

Let's see what the rest of the run brings

Ye at the moment it can't get two consecutive runs at +120 right! 

[Geordiesnow]

3 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

I agree, gfs doesn't look right to me, it could be on to something, but I have my doubts, pretty much on its own. Expecting a backtrack tomorrow, which we have seen, so many times. 

Not even bothering with the rest of the run, will wait for the euros in the morning.

Its not on its own though and it looks like it will be right initially on having the trough/trigger low to faff on over the UK, it was the only model out of the big 3 to stick to its guns on this aspect, ECM has fully backtracked this evening and this morning's UKMO run was showing similar although the 12Z now puts the trough back further East however its on its own even at 72 hours which suggests its output is wrong sadly. 

Why oh why can't we not get a clean flow via a Greenland these days, still waiting for a TRUE Northerly to happen, we havant had one for years it seems. 

[PolarWarsaw]

A fairly dissapointing end to the day. Let's see what the Euro's bring in the morning...I for one will not be surprised if they tone things down on the cold and delay it further...but like Steve and CC said the other night, they couldn't see the models backtracking after the Greenland High had been modelled to tone down. I can't see the bitter cold coming to fruition - hope I'm very much wrong. 

Night folks. 

Who is on for the 0z?