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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Whats really remarkable re the UKMO output is the depth of cold given the set up it shows. Just looking at that set up you wouldn't expect to see -10 850 value into Ireland.

Effectively the easterly drama left a chunk of deep cold in north-western Norway, its this which gets pulled into the UK with the UKMO output.

The UKMO also shows shortwaves running se.

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4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

OMG where is that!!!!! Where did you find it....have you changed it you can't get 1080 ......your winding me up.

JMA 12z, at t+192hr ...

Rjma1921.gif

Un-edited! Told ya :D

Edited by CAPE-steve
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Whats really remarkable re the UKMO output is the depth of cold given the set up it shows. Just looking at that set up you wouldn't expect to see -10 850 value into 

Last time was December 16th 2010 and I got buried.

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Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol I wrote that 10 years ago !

Some truths don't die Steve :)

As for the 12z ECM oh lord ... 'tis a thing of much wonder. Blimey.

I think a few peeps may be in for a shock in c. 5-6 days at this rate. I don't want to tempt fate etc. but that chart does remind me of 1978/9 setups. That doesn't mean we're heading down that line at all but it's a great run.

Edited by West is Best
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Whats really remarkable re the UKMO output is the depth of cold given the set up it shows. Just looking at that set up you wouldn't expect to see -10 850 value into Ireland.

Effectively the easterly drama left a chunk of deep cold in north-western Norway, its this which gets pulled into the UK with the UKMO output.

The UKMO also shows shortwaves running se.

Nick the UKMO is so good at 144 i could barely believe my eyes 

After digesting the whole suite operational wise this evening i think it will back off a bit in the morning, mainly because its so isolated.

I have not commented today really, apart from a moan about the lacklustre meto mrf,but i did start to have the collywobbles this morning with the Azores low carry on.Thankfully it would appear the models may have over reacted to a signal there and have backed off the idea of the low swooping up NE,ala the 00z ecm.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
9 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

OMG where is that!!!!! Where did you find it....have you changed it you can't get 1080 ......your winding me up.

It's on Wetterzentrale,but doesn't show it on meteocial

Rjma1921.thumb.gif.8150a905ddb2c7d76bd2c

have a look:D

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsjmaeur.html

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Nick the UKMO is so good at 144 i could barely believe my eyes

After digesting the whole suite operational wise this evening i think it will back off a bit in the morning, mainly because its so isolated.

I have not commented today really, apart from a moan about the lacklustre meto mrf,but i did start to have the collywobbles this morning with the Azores low carry on.Thankfully it would appear the models may have over reacted to a signal there and have backed off the idea of the low swooping up NE,ala the 00z ecm.

 

Yes the UKMO for that timeframe is superb. And it also has a front heading se at T120hrs and a shortwave dropping south at T144hrs from Scotland. Both those of snow.

I'd settle for an ECM/UKMO combo but of course would love to see the UKMO verify. I think with both the ECM and GFS against it that will be difficult.

Anyway the ECM postage stamps are out in about half an hour, we'll see how much support there is for the UKMO solution.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Do the azores low - love it ( dont hate it )

- as long as it doesnt get to far north ...

its a snow bringer ....

These 2 charts never get a mention in the archives but the second one had the most fierce easterly ever..

its what happens when you spike the subtropical jet north out of spain against high pressure over greenland -

image.thumb.jpg.630917a5faf15f8c4d99cf8f

image.thumb.jpg.7b4f3bc21867a738ada9ae7a

s

 

 

You really should take a break and charge your phone up:D

when was those charts Steve,cos that could happen given the right conditions,thanks.

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Off topic but to add to the mood....walking through town earlier and they seemed to be filling the grit bins up....so I'm guessing local councils have been notified of the potential by the Metoffice.

Great ECM run tonight, it is a shame about the uppers though...wouldn't want to see them raise any more. However if the cold spell beds in they should increasingly become less of an issue (within reason). ECM day 10 looks VERY cold. I'd say minima down to -15C over any lying snow.

Indeed Aaron, and possibly we are only getting really into it by then

 

Netweather GFS Image

 

Just awesome...cold set up until April 6th :)

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Unfortunately again some off topic banter etc type posts have been removed in order to keep the thread on topic for members and guests to enjoy without having to skip through drivel.

Please use the other threads if your post isn't based around the models.

Thanks all.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall in particular but most aspects of weather, hate hot and humid.
  • Location: Broadmayne, West Dorset
8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Dont hate the azores low - love it ( dont hate it )

- as long as it doesnt get to far north ...

its a snow bringer ....

These 2 charts never get a mention in the archives but the second one had the most fierce easterly ever..

its what happens when you spike the subtropical jet north out of spain against high pressure over greenland -

image.thumb.jpg.630917a5faf15f8c4d99cf8f

image.thumb.jpg.7b4f3bc21867a738ada9ae7a

s

 

 

or the daddy of them all Steve

Rrea00118810119.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, mcweather said:

or the daddy of them all Steve

Rrea00118810119.gif

That looks like 1881 on the date! lol I don't think Steves that old! The main thing with those lows is they start to disrupt and shear ene as they hit the UK.

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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

I'm afraid I don't know where to find the charts themselves, but I can provide the link to the video of Weatherweb's analysis of the JMA this evening, showing a cold spell with tempratures returning to average later in the month as zonality returns.  Any suggestion of February being colder is beyond the range of the model:

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
3 minutes ago, mcweather said:

or the daddy of them all Steve

Rrea00118810119.gif

Greeny highs are as rare as hens teeth,but when the do make an appearance.You know about it.:bomb:

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_archivesnh-1979-1-26-0-0.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Must be close to ECM ensemble timings, anyone seen those yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Must be close to ECM ensemble timings, anyone seen those yet?

168 

image.png

Blocky 240

 

image.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall

I don't think i have posted in a fair while and have been watching the comments on the past few days with this cold spell and it seems to be that the cold(er) temp/uppers and being pushed back or delayed into the end of the runs on the models.

It does get cold but no as cold as once said few days ago as it seems any Cold(er) weather is now onto the depths of fl which is a shame. :( Hope im wrong through. 

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

Just time to reminisce while we have an interval.Wonder if we can pull something like this of of the bag with our torpedo.That was one tough walk to school in Bingley after the Christmas break

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_archivesnh-1978-12-31-0-0.png

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_archives-1978-12-31-0-2.png

Edited by winterof79
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Must be close to ECM ensemble timings, anyone seen those yet?

Day 7 ensemble mean

EDH1-168.GIF?07-0

EDH0-168.GIF?07-0

Nice synoptics but not overly cold upper air temps.

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
3 minutes ago, Skulltheruler said:

I don't think i have posted in a fair while and have been watching the comments on the past few days with this cold spell and it seems to be that the cold(er) temp/uppers and being pushed back or delayed into the end of the runs on the models.

It does get cold but no as cold as once said few days ago as it seems any Cold(er) weather is now onto the depths of fl which is a shame. :( Hope im wrong through. 

Skulls I think you need to read the posts before posting up your thoughts. Whilst for your location it may well be a slightly different picture, the main theme is cold by the 12th, colder still thereafter with snow-producing 850s around from approximately D6 onwards. Personally, I say the trend is set but the specifics are not when it comes to the six million dollar questions of who, when, where and how much snow, ice the UK will receive and precisely how long the cold spell might last. I say this one will have legs. 

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Posted
  • Location: orpington kent
  • Weather Preferences: winter is frost and snow/summer is heatwaves
  • Location: orpington kent
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Day 7 ensemble mean

EDH1-168.GIF?07-0

EDH0-168.GIF?07-0

Nice synoptics but not overly cold upper air temps.

Cold for snow

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