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Captain Shortwave

Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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The 120hrs chart looked great from my viewpoint, writing was on wall, 140hrs looks superb!

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1 hour ago, January Snowstorm said:

Whilst I agree with most of what you say where are you getting a 1060 Greenland high from?

The ukmo has a mid atlantic high that barely ridges towards Greenland. Though of course it may get there if they did a 168 hrs 

 

 

Hi I think others may have covered it but I'm getting it from the 12z GFS. Admittedly I'm cherry picking a bit but I can't recall a 1060mb GH showing up? Anyone? And with all the right thicknesses too. This is a beaut, and from this everything else (well almost) flows. Or maybe Steve Murr would say that it's the first building block for any sustained cold in the UK:

 

I'm sure this has been referenced many times, but just in case anyone needs reminding, it's well worth a read: 

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-07 at 18.14.51.png

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My slight worry now is the potent cold is getting put back with every run, it is now in line with Met Office thoughts re- wed onwards, a few runs ago on some models it was progged earlier, will future runs now start backing the Met office text forecast in terms of longjevity on subsequent runs?

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13 minutes ago, West is Best said:

Hi I think others may have covered it but I'm getting it from the 12z GFS. Admittedly I'm cherry picking a bit but I can't recall a 1060mb GH showing up? Anyone? And with all the right thicknesses too. This is a beaut, and from this everything else (well almost) flows. Or maybe Steve Murr would say that it's the first building block for any sustained cold in the UK:

 

I'm sure this has been referenced many times, but just in case anyone needs reminding, it's well worth a read: 

 

Screen Shot 2016-01-07 at 18.14.51.png

Lol I wrote that 10 years ago !

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Good news the ECM is close to the UKMO upstream at T144hrs. It engages the energy off the Azores low further east which is much better than the GFS.

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+ve heights elongating fractionally more into Greenland.

image.thumb.png.e365a68e25acf056219c1c15image.thumb.png.2fabef7d2233f47b08d509c7

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ECM is an okay enough run but the UKMO is firmly on its own and because the 00Z UKMO run showed the trigger low being slow moving and with the GFS persistence of making it a very slow moving low then I would bet strongly on the trigger low being slow moving and tomorrow morning's UKMO run will back down. 

That will mean the cold air is a bit delayed and when it does arrive it will be less potent than the UKMO run. I think unless things are different by morning, its safe to assume this afternoon's run will be wrong. 

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Lol I wrote that 10 years ago !

And it is a fantastic reference too...often use it for guidance in what model output to look for regarding a wintry set up! 

Jeez just shows how time flies!! 

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Loving the ecm

I said earlier a half way between ukmo and gfs would be fine and that's what the ecm is.

Looks quite a snowy run for many parts

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Love that 'second wind' of WAA up E Canada, this run is gonna be an absolute stonker for the rest.

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Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Nick the T168 is beautiful...:cold::D

image.png

 

I still prefer the UKMO as it brings in the cold and snow all within T144hrs. The ECM is better than its morning run so far. It will be interesting to see the ECM postage stamps later to see how much support there is for the UKMO output.

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Synopticly wonderful. 

Clean with nice ridge profile. .and less nuisances

ECH1-168-3.gif

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Looking goood! Doesn't look as dry as some touted on this run anyway.

1a.thumb.gif.4d96ead1cef74da8925ac42316d 1b.thumb.gif.6142955780c7080d11e7041429b

2a.thumb.gif.b8a5d6ab91b73d395a5ededd264 2b.thumb.gif.dc5d029caad5933f49547b54232

:cold:

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I've seen enough here to know that we're OK. The rest of the run is LaLa land anyway! 

 

Its coming folks!

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Anyone got that snow GIF? +168

image.thumb.png.0d6f015c10985397363b3151image.thumb.png.ec9a1be936fc471706bf95b9

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

My slight worry now is the potent cold is getting put back with every run, it is now in line with Met Office thoughts re- wed onwards, a few runs ago on some models it was progged earlier, will future runs now start backing the Met office text forecast in terms of longjevity on subsequent runs?

Yes. But only a run or two before that it was a week on Saturday!

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One to watch 

* At 168 the ECM has energy in the subtropical jet around portugal -

This will push east / North east - 

at worst in drives the european cold west

at best it slides up the uk delivering Snow -

S

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23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Still some big differences between the UKMO and the GFS/ECM with the troughing over the UK at T96hrs.

Strange to see that at just T96hrs. We await the T120hrs, I can't watch!

Yes the UK model gets the cold flow in around 36/48hrs sooner by the looks of it.

UKMO at T96hrs raw chart very similar to the T120hrs fax from last night.

Rukm961.thumb.gif.5562431aaf790eb816f86afax120s.thumb.gif.41d6ced03ea3efb636a9aa

getting that low into the north sea by Monday with the colder uppers into the north earlier than the other 2.

GFS in particular very messy with the complex low pressure area over the UK .

We will still get the colder air eventually but like you Nick i would much rather see a cleaner evolution before any further complications pop up to halt progress to establishing the pattern nationwide.

Edited by phil nw.
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1 minute ago, BLOWERS said:

Yes. But only a run or two before that it was a week on Saturday!

Yes agreed but i just like t see everything come on board before celebrating.

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ECH1-192.GIF?07-0

Now that is a decent chart with a decent block which seems just in the right place over Greenland. Not to west based either which is good news. Now all we need is this chart at T72 not too much to ask is it?

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