Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[tight isobar]

The ecm 12z upcoming. 

Hope/think it will be a much cleaner/clearer evolutionary run than the opposed 12z gfs suite.

Gfs )Its seems to be having great difficulty with the unfolding evolution! 

[mb018538]

Those of you fretting a lot over details in tonight's output, bear this chart in mind:



According to the ooz GFS run on New Years day, the south of the UK should be getting battered by a monster storm at 7pm this evening! Nowehere to be seen. Only 162 hours away on the chart forecast too. Things can and will change!

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Zakos said:

 

Ten days ago it was showing a Bartlett scenario. A complete backtrack here from the CFS.

Just goes to show the weather will do what it wants to do.

I personally think we will see a potent and prolonged cold spell. There is potential IMO for a memorable event to occur.

Im afraid that says more about the CFS than it does about the weather Zakos

[Liam J]

Hope the UKMO is on the money and the ECM follows suit!!

Much quicker route to cold with UKMO evolution. 850's only go out to T72 but  -5c 850's already into the north at 72hrs and they would only flood southwards from this point given how it ends up at 144hrs - Nice and clean no drama...  

[I remember Atlantic 252]

 

like the 06Z potentially snowy lows knocking around, for many inland areas this kinda setup could be way better than a northerly, wishbone effect, GFS seems to be backing away from that setup, instead lows/shortwaves moving into cold air

[nick sussex]

Looks like the UKMO has two bands of snow heading se. The 850's at T120hrs around -8 for the Midlands, a bit colder at T144hrs.

Snow, good margin for error! I urge everyone to pray that the ECM follows this! Don't cheer on the GFS its a car crash waiting to happen!

That of course is my take on things and born out of years of watching cold synoptics unravel, I accept others may take a different view.

[Liam J]

Could be quite snowy in Scotland by Sunday according to the UKMO. 

[Zakos]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Im afraid that says more about the CFS than it does about the weather Zakos

True, but i was attempting to use it to show how quickly the models in general can switch.

I'm not saying the models are not of use beyond a certain range. I just believe the further out you go, the more likely the forecast is to change, especially so with such a dramatic pattern change that we are currently experiencing. 

[snowice]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Looks like the UKMO has two bands of snow heading se. The 850's at T120hrs around -8 for the Midlands, a bit colder at T144hrs.

Snow, good margin for error! I urge everyone to pray that the ECM follows this! Don't cheer on the GFS its a car crash waiting to happen!

That of course is my take on things and born out of years of watching cold synoptics unravel, I accept others may take a different view.

HI nick not meaning to put you on the spot in percentage terms which evolution looks more likely Gfs Ukmo?

[radiohead]

While we await the big one, 12Z NAVGEM is not a million miles away from the 12Z GFS at T180.

[Deep Snow please]

I try not to get excited about wintry weather prospects outside of the +48hr time frame due to perennial disappointment but I am really excited about this series of proper cold charts.

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowice said:

HI nick not meaning to put you on the spot in percentage terms which evolution looks more likely Gfs Ukmo?

Can't answer that! lol I hope its the UKMO, on verification stats alone because we're talking of T96 and T120hrs then if you had to back then you'd go for the UKMO. Once you get to the 120hrs on the UKMO you're past the crucial bit because that couldn't cause a drama with the Azores low.

We'll see which way the ECM goes, if that backs the UKMO then you'd expect the GFS to backtrack.

[MR EXTREMES]

I'm not liking the shift slightly west of the Greenland high it's a worry west based nao no thank u 

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those of you fretting a lot over details in tonight's output, bear this chart in mind:



According to the ooz GFS run on New Years day, the south of the UK should be getting battered by a monster storm at 7pm this evening! Nowehere to be seen. Only 162 hours away on the chart forecast too. Things can and will change!

That is absolutely right, and its not the only phantom storm like that it has thrown in. For that reason, its worth paying less attention to the GFS when it's a question of quickly deepening lows off the Atlantic - it used to do better with them, but in the past three weeks its been like watching the old GME model - miles and miles off.

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

I'm not liking the shift slightly west of the Greenland high it's a worry west based nao no thank u 

Nothing wrong with ECM YET, would wait to see what happens in next few frames.

[nick sussex]

Still some big differences between the UKMO and the GFS/ECM with the troughing over the UK at T96hrs.

Strange to see that at just T96hrs. We await the T120hrs, I can't watch!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Still some big differences between the UKMO and the GFS/ECM with the troughing over the UK at T96hrs.

Strange to see that at just T96hrs. We await the T120hrs, I can't watch!

120 is fine Nick.

[Day 10]

ECM closer to the gfs at 120

[radiohead]

ECM and GFS both showing -2/-4 uppers over the UK at T120.

Edited January 7, 2016 by radiohead

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Minus 10 said:

ECM closer to the gfs at 120

Yes but it's still fine. The GFS has it more pronounced.

[nick sussex]

Well the ECM closer to the GFS but that shortwave bulge is further east. Looks like we'll have to wait to the morning to see what happens.

[terrier]

I know it's early in the run but the ecm at t120 looks closer to the gfs than the ukmo. lets see where rest of run heads. 

[shaky]

Lol ecm  is absolutely fine guys!!brilliant run out to 120 hours!!!not as good as ukmo but still good!!lets see what 144 hours brings!!!

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

I know it's early in the run but the ecm at t120 looks closer to the gfs than the ukmo. lets see where rest of run heads. 

I will watch rest of run but for me FI is +96.

[SMU]

ECM 144 - azores low crushed - it has no chance....

atlantic profile building nice

S