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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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06z short ensembles showing clearly how the op detaches itself from the majority during next Sunday/Monday.

The colder 850 temps also now extended by a day compared to yesterday, how many more days will it keep doing the same?

graphe_ens3_dkx0.gif

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perhaps tonight has a little more potential than many thought?

image.jpeg

GFS hints, but I guess looking at Euro4 might be more accurate later 

gfs-2-18.png?6gfs-2-24.png?6

Edited by karlos1983
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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

perhaps tonight has a little more potential than many thought?

image.jpeg

I doubt it. Away from the hills I haven't seen anything to show anything other than rain/sleet.

Maybe someone can post some charts rather than weather forecasts if they think differently?

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With the 2m, 850 hpa and DP temps that are currently being modeled, I'd guess that it'll all come down to a combination of wind-speed and rate of precipitation; which will, of course, vary from place to place...IMO, it's a classically marginal situation? :D

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44 minutes ago, Nouska said:

They only show upstream analogues so of less value if pattern is highly anomalous to our east and any retrogression is anticipated.

 

I also use the GEFS analogue forecast charts that NOAA produce daily.  

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/wx_maps/index.html#nh

ESRL page   -     http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

Yes an important point to remember the analogues are calculated from a restricted area and can be unrepresentative some distance away -

Quote

over the Pacific-North America region (60W westward to 175E, 20N to 70N)

Did you mean GEFS anomaly forecast charts?

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2 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It's broad-brush catering for wet snow Thurs daytime in parts of south as any heavier pulses of ppn backwash runs S associated with WBFL dropping down steadily <400m. Areal probability of snow actually settling to meaningful amounts in SE third of UK currently rated about 20%, however. Modified E4 with WBFL here to illustrate progression:

Screenshot_2016-01-13-13-25-37-1.png

That's an interesting chart, thanks. Where is it from?

In any event, I hope you guys get something good soon. We are thawing from last week currently.

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12 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

It's broad-brush catering for wet snow Thurs daytime in parts of south as any heavier pulses of ppn backwash runs S associated with WBFL dropping down steadily <400m. Areal probability of snow actually settling to meaningful amounts in SE third of UK currently rated about 20%, however. Modified E4 with WBFL here to illustrate progression:

Screenshot_2016-01-13-13-25-37-1.png

So nice to see you back :) I can stop using my girlfriends twitter now to keep up to date with all your tweets haha. Just reading your latest one that 40% of EC-ENS,retrogress the block? Would it be fair to say over the past few days this has steadily gone up?  

As for the GFS it's seems its up to its old tricks again, the variance in theme in a six hour gap is well 'confusing' and is slowly going to lead me into an early grave. 

gfsnh-0-78.png?6

For me it goes wrong or right given your take on things as early as just t78 as the low pressure stops and thinks I'll head north east instead. 

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49 minutes ago, Interitus said:

Yes an important point to remember the analogues are calculated from a restricted area and can be unrepresentative some distance away -

Did you mean GEFS anomaly forecast charts?

They are not the same as the ones we usually see on here - explained in the link below.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/

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ALL ABROAD, the tweet says that 40% of the eps 'maintain or even retrogress cold block'.  not quite the same as your post. 

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A couple of posts have been moved to the cold spell thread:

 

Remember, if it's about the cold spell but not model-related it goes in there. That includes current conditions and posts purely about snow prospects. Thanks :)

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15 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

DPs incornwall look impressive 

image.jpg

Ha, -20C! 

Surprised that no-one's posted the all-important :) NAVGEM 6z:

 

navgemnh-0-120.png?13-12

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

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14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ALL ABROAD, the tweet says that 40% of the eps 'maintain or even retrogress cold block'.  not quite the same as your post. 

Sorry yes I stand corrected ! 

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Only just caught up with the GFS 06hrs run and unfortunately this highlights my reservations about this mornings UKMO output.

To increase the margin for error we need to see the models tonight trend to the ECM T96hrs output because this is already taking energy se'wards at that timeframe. This also has more margin for error incase the upstream pattern is somewhat less favourable.

You can clearly see by comparing the ECM/UKMO which one is less likely to go wrong:

ECM

ECM1-96.thumb.gif.f3aab19d31ccc07df16f07

UKMO

UW96-21.thumb.gif.1ab2d5a34204f0debc1500

 

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Only just caught up with the GFS 06hrs run and unfortunately this highlights my reservations about this mornings UKMO output.

To increase the margin for error we need to see the models tonight trend to the ECM T96hrs output because this is already taking energy se'wards at that timeframe. This also has more margin for error incase the upstream pattern is somewhat less favourable.

 

 

for newcomers who may get a bit lost with some of the terms you see used in here, the one above by Nick, I 'think', refers to needing to see the surface isobars orientated SE NOT E, this would, possibly, help in keeping the surface ridge and its governing upper ridge over the top of it either in situ or possibly building it.

If I am wrong Nick please correct me.

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Very interesting update from WSi on twitter

Part 1. Change to the forecast with 00Z ECM OP holding onto higher pressure & colder temperatures for longer next week due to...

Part 2 1.Deeper Low off Newfoundland. 2.Higher heights over E Atlantic to Ice/Greenland 3.Deeper trough over Scandi

Embedded image permalink

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2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

for newcomers who may get a bit lost with some of the terms you see used in here, the one above by Nick, I 'think', refers to needing to see the surface isobars orientated SE NOT E, this would, possibly, help in keeping the surface ridge and its governing upper ridge over the top of it either in situ or possibly building it.

If I am wrong Nick please correct me.

No you're totally correct. I'm probably just being overly cautious but I'd much prefer to see the ECM verify.

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Just a heads up everyone i will be opening a new thread before the 12s come out.

I will give it about 10 minutes or so for anyone still wanting to post.

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Ok locking this now.New thread here

 

 

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