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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
27 minutes ago, Mucka said:

When evaluating the models I don't think anthropomorphism helps us or cherry picking success or highlighting individual failures but for sure take on board the various models bias.

Yes I do it myself, pot kettle and all that, but worth remembering GFS got an awful lot right the other  models failed with before this latest episode (assuming it is wrong)

I'm 99% sure on these;

  • It was the first to push the pattern west. 
  • The first with the Icelandic shortwave.
  • The first to have energy break through the first ridge.
  • The first to downgrade the uppers.
  • The first to bring the Azores low North as we see now.

They all have strengths and weaknesses and it is probably GFS's progressive nature that causes it to be on the end of more of our bad feeling as it will usually be the model that will least likely give us the amplification we want.

is that the study of 'morph'?

morph_2719563c.thumb.jpg.730c78c45b44d54

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
8 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

is that the study of 'morph'?

morph_2719563c.thumb.jpg.730c78c45b44d54

 

Indeed it is! :D

 

GFS ensembles are out to 144 and trending the right way overall 

Still no snow showing Thursday away from hills on Euro4 unfortunately.

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Th 14.01.2016 12 GMT

Perhaps some snow showers later filtering in from the NW

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Th 14.01.2016 18 GMT

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
21 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Just watched Alex Deakin at 10:40 on BBC1.

He stated that the milder air May well arrive by midweek.

At the time he was standing in front of a chart showing a 1035Mb high from Scotland upto the West Coast of Norway.

Interesting because I haven't see the high that far north east on any of the charts that have been published on here.

This evenings Fax chart my be better than expected.:D:cold:

As stated this afternoon , both the Beeb and Met forecasts appeared to be following the GFS output , stating a return to milder SW ( Atlantic ) driven weather anywhere from Monday to Wednesday , Despite the METO charts released only two hours later that totally dismissed such !
Your guess is as good as mine , I view almost every model output religiously and have done for the 10+ years of following this thread and can only give one word of advice , back against the UK Met Forecast at your peril 
As such , I do expect the Atlantic to be the driving force by mid week next week at the latest and expect a backtrack from the METO and ECM tomorrow 

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Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex

Today's 12Z ECM ensemble for London. Massive outlier, the cold is going to put up a strong fight next week!

Keep the faith :)

ekgwwg.gif

Edited by essexweather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
16 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Today's 12Z ECM ensemble for London. Massive outlier, the cold is going to put up a strong fight next week!

Keep the faith :)

ekgwwg.gif

Very nice, the gradual warm up suggest a messy breakdown attempt with low pressure sliding SE so good snow chances.

When the 18th comes around it will be interesting to see where we actually are.

GFS ensembles for SE England

Diagramme GEFS

There is a weak signal within GFS ensembles for another Northerly event to take shape toward end of January. (not to be taken too seriously at this range)

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Snow>Freezing Fog; Summer: Sun>Daytime Storms
  • Location: Abingdon - 55m ASL - Capital of The Central Southern England Corridor of Winter Convectionlessness
19 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Still no snow showing Thursday away from hills on Euro4 unfortunately.

Rain/Snowfall EURO4 Th 14.01.2016 12 GMT

Another totally ineffective 'cold' front on that system.

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Posted
  • Location: St. Helens
  • Location: St. Helens
2 minutes ago, Serendipity said:

But last week we had snow chances today, they went. Then we had snow chances on Thursday, they went. Earlier it was Monday of next week, now it is Tuesday. Surely this just goes to show that charts beyond 72 hours or so are completely pointless as they are using imagined data and when they get the actual weather and work from there (ie in the shorter timescale), THAT is when they become more realistic? I just do not get why people get so excited days out as nothing ever seems to verify. If you look back a few days, by now we should be in the grip of very cold weather and indeed the Countryfile forecast (to use an example) showed temps midweek in my locality of -5, now we are not going to get anything like that. When there is so much divergence of models, then nothing can be taken as gospel and snow chances just seem to get pushed back and back. I'm not even sure why I look at anything beyond 48 hours or so tbh!

SA

yes

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
3 hours ago, Dreamnine said:

 

Looks like the vortex is in for a rough ride. Warming up nicely at the top of the Strat on tonight's GFS run. Will be good to see this become a trend and work its way down (down in terms of strat level and down towards day 1)!

image.thumb.jpg.d37ca59bc8b0c8471c67639a

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

If the Atlantic does break through lets hope its at a favourable angle to deliver some snow so from the sw not nw as that would lift out the cold.

I think the issue is whether the models will continue to underplay the block or whether we'll reach a plateau.

In terms of longevity I think its reasonable to be conservative on estimates, I think theres enough evidence to suggest the cold hanging on till next Wednesday. The ECM ensembles have another cluster extending that by a few days, so next Friday would be a bit of a result.

Of course the pattern might evolve more favourably,  I think the issue is whether western Europe can withstand the forecast jump in the AO, or whether this perhaps has been overplayed.

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
25 minutes ago, essexweather said:

Today's 12Z ECM ensemble for London. Massive outlier, the cold is going to put up a strong fight next week!

Keep the faith :)

ekgwwg.gif

 

Much better cold clustering tonight. Probably more similar to ens output of 36 hours ago, with a strong cold cluster persisting until 22 January. To me that can only mean more support for the Atlantic going under the block completely.

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Posted
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL

A very reasoned post Nick , without doubt there is potential but if the Met favour an Atlantic return and are currently feeding beeb forecasts on such for next week , personally I would favour their opinion over what even their model output suggests for next week , however , it has been known for them to change their minds at the last minute 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Gwernaffield, NE Wales - 200m above sea level.
  • Location: Gwernaffield, NE Wales - 200m above sea level.
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 

Much better cold clustering tonight. Probably more similar to ens output of 36 hours ago, with a strong cold cluster persisting until 22 January. To me that can only mean more support for the Atlantic going under the block completely.

To be honest - looking at the ECM clustering it's looking like it's one way or another. No middle ground - but things are improved over the last few days for longevity of cold.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
37 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Very nice, the gradual warm up suggest a messy breakdown attempt with low pressure sliding SE so good snow chances.

When the 18th comes around it will be interesting to see where we actually are.

GFS ensembles for SE England

Diagramme GEFS

There is a weak signal within GFS ensembles for another Northerly event to take shape toward end of January. (not to be taken too seriously at this range)

@Mucka what i don't understand, is the 2m temps don't tie in with the 850's. Which suggests to me that they favour the high on top of us or slightly south, gradually mixing out the cold surface temps and then back to south westerly regime. Not an undercut. 

Diagramme GEFS

I'm not sure the ensembles are of much use right now.

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
26 minutes ago, mickpips said:

A very reasoned post Nick , without doubt there is potential but if the Met favour an Atlantic return and are currently feeding beeb forecasts on such for next week , personally I would favour their opinion over what even their model output suggests for next week , however , it has been known for them to change their minds at the last minute

 

I think its only us in these threads who really look at those forecasts with a microscopic eye! I think you can make a fair case for around mid-week or a few days later. Its sometimes best to lower expectations, the UKMO could probably make a case for either aswell but they don't really like to go out on a limb.

 

 

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think its only us in these threads who really look at those forecasts with a miscroscopic eye! I think you can make a fair case for around mid-week or a few days later. Its sometimes best to lower expectations, the UKMO could probably make a case for either aswell but they don't really like to go out on a limb.

 

 

exactly, the main difference being they have public to think about, we don't. but you can see that even the presenters differ from those that prefer cold or not. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

so still interesting in the spreads at 120, could go either way

EEH1-120.GIF?12-0EDH1-120.GIF

an undercut, or a better undercut :D

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Much improved GFS at 144 regards cold hanging around, rain still bumping into cold air in the SW on Monday could lead to a spell of light snow. As for the UKMO, that just keeps on producing eye candy for coldies, that could go on to form something much better. 

image.png

image.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

@Mucka what i don't understand, is the 2m temps don't tie in with the 850's. Which suggests to me that they favour the high on top of us or slightly south, gradually mixing out the cold surface temps and then back to south westerly regime. Not an undercut. 

Diagramme GEFS

I'm not sure the ensembles are of much use right now.

Morning Karlos, I know what you mean but you can't have the high without some undercut. This mornings GFS is a good example of what they were likely showing - nearly but not quite and slow inroads by the Atlantic and flattening of the pattern which should give some snow during a messy breakdown. Remember the uppers will get mixed out as the high sinks but it will only warm slowly at the surface.

gfsnh-0-132.png?0

So GFS still inching towards UKMO which is sticking to its guns so hopefully the whole breakdown thing can stay on the back-burner for now.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Morning Karlos, I know what you mean but you can't have the high without some undercut. This mornings GFS is a good example of what they were likely showing - nearly but not quite and slow inroads by the Atlantic and flattening of the pattern. Remember the uppers will get mixed out as the high sinks but it will only warm slowly at the surface.

gfsnh-0-132.png?0

So GFS still inching towards UKMO which is sticking to its guns. 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO 144 is outstanding. A good snowy spell would follow from day 7 with a clash of bitter air from the NE and undercutting Atlantic lows. An excellent chart.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
26 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Indeed UKMO @120 ( if you have been around that long ) is the Jan 1982 redux....

good start to the day......

image.thumb.jpg.04c79fc674bd48759622e7f2

 

Have you seen UKMO 144h  :shok: You couldn't draw a better chart!

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Definatly a big swing in the models over the last 24 hours in favour of cold..

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Ecm at t72 is ver very similar to meto at t72, with gfs being less amplified even at that time. Despite this gfs manages to slide in lows and keep the cold hanging around. 

Conversely at t96 Ecm is perhaps over amplified over France,preventing the sliding energy and encouraging the slowly sinking block. 

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