Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

True, anything could happen. Good, bad or downright ugly! The ECM could easily have shown an easterly with the trough disruption better between T144hrs and T168hrs, we could also see the energy all pile over the top. Its one of those set ups that's a toss-up.

We still have the GFS to worry about even before the post T144hrs timeframe and that was very underwhelming, we really need that to backtrack on its 18hrs run because given the timeframes even though it was criticized by NCEP we are talking now of events within T96hrs!

Interesting Nick because I was looking at the 850 winds when T168 updated and having seen the way some of the energy split south and the rest North, I was expecting the block to be stood  n/s across the UK with WAA going north and some disruption South.  Very surprised when I clicked on the z500 chart. 

[blizzard81]

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM continues to tease that easterly solution only to blow it by fractions.

It would not take much to jet the southern arm going through Iberia and force the flow easterly for at least a short time next week.

The ECM again seems to be defaulting to the traditional strong El Nino pattern by week 2 (High over eastern Canada with a broad Atlantic trough). Things could change significantly if we can disrupt that trough in the western Atlantic enough, again major concerns over the consistency over the Arctic region in respect to how areas of low heights phase together, if at all. Then there are issues with the MJO to deal with (Do we remain in phase 8, move to phase 1 and decline or move to a decent amplitude phase 2), phase 2 suggests well below normal heights over Iberia which goes firmly against some of the output shown tonight.

A lot to ponder in my view. The ECM is bitterly cold for all until next Monday, it takes another 24 to 36 hours to get less cold 850s across the whole of the UK.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

Good things it's knee deep in FI then 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

It's a horrid run in FI....that can't be denied. We need to see improvement on the 0z because it's getting towards the day 5/6 timeframe where the changes are needed now. All goes wrong day 6 onwards.

[BARRY]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

but if the models are having trouble at 48T there is no good losing sleep over the future

[i luv snow]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

Whilst I understand your feelings, in my opinion it really is still up in the air. The ensembles will probably reflect this too. Crazy as it sounds at this time frame, more runs really are needed.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

Not really as all the cold is at the start of the run and the mild is well into FI, makes a nice change really. 

However, it also shows despite what the background signals may offer, the threat of the Atlantic coming in and the PV re-organising itself again can't be ruled out and it also shows once again, albeit just in the medium term, the UKMO could well be overdoing the WAA again. 

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Does it hold much weight that two of the main models now bring in a W/SW flow into next week? Though the ECM extends the cold for a few more days vs the faster route shown by the GFS... More runs needed, this is turning into quite a saga!! 

I'm starting to believe that might well end up the case too re: the maritime flow next week. However, nothing to despondent about for the cold-loving fraternity, chins up, the above scenario still leaves us with another six to seven days of cold days and very cold nights to come. The transition back to Atlantic driven is a better (or worse) bet in the long run than the likelihood of a short-lived Easterly would ever be. Besides, there is a certain degree of inevitability about our weather, is there not? We've done well to have pulled this spell out of the fire given where we were a week ago and a week is a long time in UK weather so knows what the future holds but I'm still very hopeful about January and the end of this week in particular. 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Interesting Nick because I was looking at the 850 winds when T168 updated and having seen the way some of the energy split south and the rest North, I was expecting the block to be stood  n/s across the UK with WAA going north and some disruption South.  Very surprised when I clicked on the z500 chart.

Its turning into the Twilight Zone! So what do you think BA still a big split in the ECM ensembles? Early next week looks impossible to predict. I'm hoping NCEP will become big UKMO fans this evening! Generally though in their State forecasts they don't mention it much, its really the shorter term and WPC ones where it figures.

I'm off now to find any info that backs the UKMO!

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? 

No, I felt like throwing up a lot through December's very mild mush but the Ecm 12z is showing increasingly cold and wintry weather for the next 5-7 days with widespread frosts and a good chance of snow!

Edited January 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[A.J]

so then, to sum up the model outputs over the past 24 hours for the coming days

it might snow, it might not, it might turn cold, then mild, then cold....or it start cold, get colder, and then turn mild, or maybe it will start mild,  turn cold, turn mild, and then turn colder.......................and I almost forgot, it might be dry, but it might be wet, or it might turn dry only to get wetter later........I don't know about anybody else, but I'm so confused that I don't know what my name is or where I come from! 

(FI is at T72 for me!)

[phil nw.]

16 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Does it hold much weight that two of the main models now bring in a W/SW flow into next week? Though the ECM extends the cold for a few more days vs the faster route shown by the GFS... More runs needed, this is turning into quite a saga!! 

I would say in most cases yes.But we are looking beyond day 6 and a period of model differences by day 4.Then we have the UKKMO at T120/144 which holds the block further north and west extending the cold into next week.

Gripping stuff alright.

[Lake District Blizzards]

 

I think both the GFS and ECM have picked up the most likely pattern for next week but is the gfs too progressive or the ecm under progressive?

This chart here at 144 hrs, the two low pressure systems to the nw and sw you would expect the energy to go over the top of the high with no real block over greenland or svalbard areas.

The ecm gets there eventually, but the 168 hrs chart doesnt look right to me at all. if the energy is going over the top then id expect this chart 24 hours later really not 48

The gfs is even more progressive and blasts the high out the way, so i would expect something between the two to occur and for the cold weather to probably be over by monday / early tuesday for the UK as a whole.

 

[Singularity]

Again ECM seems to take the low heights moving out of Svalbard and the trough over the U.S. as suddenly becoming part of one large cyclonic circulation. Seems legit...

Basically all of the models seem to be sticking with their general themes for one reason or another, accounting for GFS' wobble of course.

[bobbydog]

saved by the NAVGEM! -

[blizzard81]

12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud10 I'm reeling out the big guns,my secret weapon.....The CPTEC....

Haha  Imagine this forum if the major models were showing the above at T120? 1947 revisited!

[ICETAB]

NAVGEM maintains the cold all of the way through its run. It has an easterly at T180. Lets hope the others follow it tomorrow.

 

 

[Ali1977]

So ECM and GFS op runs aren't great for prolonging the cold, UKMO and some of the other lesser known models aren't...The METO seem to think the cold hangs on into next week. Tricky situation forecasting this one I guess, lots going on in the Western Atlantic leading to many different outcomes. 

I have a feeling we won't really know what's going to happen over the weekend till Wed morning. Maybe the ECM ens will give us an idea, I have a feeling the Op will be on the mild side.

NAVGEM + CPTEC are cold lovers dream charts, any chance these verifying I wonder.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Ali1977

[dragonfalls]

So are we none the wiser what's happening cold coming Thursday mild by Monday want a break from these models but can't lol to much going on talk about mind games...

[STORMWATER]

Fascinated by all the comments, but for me the latest GFS and ECM run it's game over especially where I'm located,  I don't look at the other models as basically they are not up to scratch and unfortunately it looks like the mild wind and rain will return by Sunday.

[blizzard81]

20 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud10 I'm reeling out the big guns,my secret weapon.....The CPTEC....

Haha  Imagine this forum if the major models were showing the above at T120? 1947 revisited! However, I cannot recall many (if any) situations where the ecm and gfs are trumped by ukmo, cptec and nogaps. When gfs and ecm are more or less in the same ball park, you can just about count on them being correct.

[northwestsnow]

If i were being honest i'd say ecm will be on the ball here. Its the topdog, if there was going to be a change to the ukmo i think it would have been this evening unfortunately -

So that leaves us, assuming the colder weather begins wed a decent 5 day cold spell with a decent shout for some places seeing laying snow for 4 days or so.

After the Nov/Dec horror show i think most of us would be very happy with that, the ecm shows some decent uppers of -7 moving south and im still thinking the midlands could be the sweet spot in all this.

Was out in manchester city centre today and it felt bitter, thats before the colder uppers move in.

Even for those who get no snow there are some really cold nights coming and some great walking weather to be had in Englands frosty landscape.:)

[Cloud 10]

27 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud10 I'm reeling out the big guns,my secret weapon.....The CPTEC....

 

Can't beat that lol,so i'll just confuse you with the GFS 3D.

Meteociel 3D - Modèle américain GFS Monde en 3D intéractif

 

[Trom]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

Anybody else feel like throwing up after seeing that ecm run? Could not be more opposite to the thoughts of some of the more respected members on this forum.

Yes but the issue is how well are the models actually coping with a situation that they've not encountered before.  We've not had El nino conditions with such warm waters in both indian and pacific oceans in decades.  Presumably the deterministic models lack the experience (for want of a better word) of modelling this situation.  Also there's a fair chunk of winter left and if Tamara and Stuart are correct then a rapid movement through early MJO phases could have us looking at wintery synoptics improving the later we go.  

Edited January 11, 2016 by Trom