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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well we have the gfs ukmo and ecm showing a cold spell all next week. Don't look at day 10 on the charts as gospel. Yes they may be showing things turning milder towards next weekend but for now let's enjoy the cold spell coming up. And don't forget we should start seeing the affects of glacier points torpedo coming into range before long. Think fi starts around t120 and a lot can and probably will change enjoy guys. 

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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
  • Weather Preferences: Most except high humidity and thawing snow.
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham

I enjoy the chase with individual model runs, but being perhaps too level headed, go to the mean for a sense of reality. I have found the Ecm model does it best for me so while other people have already accessed the postage stamps, l have just got to uploading the 850Pa temerature chart for this and the previous run for day 6.

They look much the same to me. So mild outlier? and not all gloom and doom.

image.gif

image.gif

Edited by Weathervane
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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM spreads at T192 and T216hrs the 850's spread is quite large running ne from me here in sw France. This suggests theres a cluster which pull colder air in from the ne and have the high further north.

The high near the UK in the outlook is a good bet but just how far north it could be could still change.

I note the postage stamps are sorted into three clusters each cluster with a similar synoptic evolution. Are these clusters picked manually and are there always three? It seems to be cluster three that gives the best positioning of the high, while cluster one (which includes the det and control) are less favourable.

I would assume cluster three is less likely as the op and control were in cluster one?

I'm really just trying to understand the reason and application of the clusters, never really took notice before.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Having looked at the ECM ens extended and the GEFS  and GEM ens, plus some of the trends in gfs fi's, believe that the current direction of travel as follows -. Following the ridge next weekend over the UK, this will slowly sink south allowing a broadly westerly flow, especially across the n of the UK. The southern half could stay surface cold under the influence of the blocking.  Thereafter, I still think general retrogression as the most likely route as the high to the south heads nw.  Impossible to say if that allows any troughing from the NE to affect us or we just get a nw zonal flow across nw Europe. 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

The ECM ens look similar to this morning to be honest. Perhaps a tad more progressive around day 9 and 10.

EDM101-144.GIF?10-0EDM101-192.GIF?10-0EDM101-240.GIF?10-0

The coldest days seems to be Friday and Saturday for most of the UK, the east stays cold into Sunday and Monday as the heights slowly move in from the west. 850 anomalies rise above normal for the UK at day 10, it doesn't mean the surface temperatures will be. 

Looking for potential snow, well we have a few systems moving through during the week which could be of interest, Friday and Saturday could deliver some snow showers to areas near the coast, Irish sea coasts favoured on Friday at the moment, north sea coasts could get some showers as well on Saturday as the flow looks northerly. Still a long way off to offer some realistic snow prospects though (in terms of risk areas at least).

Lets give it a couple more suites to see whether the models begin to hone in on the correct solution for such matters as the Azores low,if this changes we may see another twist in the tale which could lead to different and more promising outcome.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
27 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

yes but none of those charts were in the reliable time-frame ,so always liable to change ,but it never seems any really cold looking charts past 5-6 days seem to materialise anyway :( ,what we have now is just average for jan,not even a cold spell if the latest temps shown are correct later in the week,today was just as cold as the temps shown later in the week,what a shame from what even the met office tweeted a few days ago ,oc in the north and 4c in the south from wed onwards next week :( not happening now .

Well, it's maybe not the Siberian temps some were hoping for but the Reading EPS show no real warm weather for Reading:  4C is as high as it gets from the deterministic run till day ten. The control and spread say this might be on the low side if you are unlucky.

epsgram_at_reading!epsgram.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Forest of Dean
  • Weather Preferences: snow and cold
  • Location: Forest of Dean

Hi Steve,  Thats a depressing synopsis.  I read pretty much every winter post for the last few years and it does seem that the cold is not going to deliver what we want in terms of prolonged cold.  I think we are all looking for a decent cold spell but it would seem Greece is the place to be.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
17 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Well, it's maybe not the Siberian temps some were hoping for but the Reading EPS show no real warm weather for Reading:  4C is as high as it gets from the deterministic run till day ten. The control and spread say this might be on the low side if you are unlucky.

epsgram_at_reading!epsgram.gif

Most bizzarely the forecast I watched lunch-time by Chris F showed temperatures of 7C for London and S, 8C for the SW on Friday which is near average. Which is frankly highly inaccurate to the public the mentioned much colder weather, does not correlate there. You'd expect those figures for Newcastle & Scotland for much of England. 

image.thumb.jpeg.192634c8b4d4b5d9fff14fc

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

 

hmm, i'd probably let it ride a little longer, it's not until around +96 that our interest there gets going. at least.:nonono:

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
6 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Most bizzarely the forecast I watched lunch-time by Chris F showed temperatures of 7C for London and S, 8C for the SW on Friday which is near average. Which is frankly highly inaccurate to the public the mentioned much colder weather, does not correlate there. You'd expect those figures for Newcastle & Scotland for much of England. 

image.thumb.jpeg.192634c8b4d4b5d9fff14fc

I suppose 8c is much colder compared to the rest of the winter so far.

Maybe,this is a taster for the "cold snaps"  of the future.

Hope not.:angry:

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Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
On Wednesday, January 06, 2016 at 7:56 PM, kumquat said:

I've really gone and done it. I've committed the Cardinal Sin and gone and spouted off in my office!

ECH1-240.GIF?06-0

With charts like this - there's no time like the present!

 

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Posted
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
  • Location: North Leeds 130m ASL
15 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Most bizzarely the forecast I watched lunch-time by Chris F showed temperatures of 7C for London and S, 8C for the SW on Friday which is near average. Which is frankly highly inaccurate to the public the mentioned much colder weather, does not correlate there. You'd expect those figures for Newcastle & Scotland for much of England. 

image.thumb.jpeg.192634c8b4d4b5d9fff14fc

Unfortunately you have to take such forecast temperatures as maximums , in town and city centres ... away from such ... maximums will be way below them values 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

gfsnh-0-90.png?18gfsnh-0-96.png?12

looks more amplified to my eye

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, bluearmy said:

You have amazing eyes Karlos!

 

perhaps not then........

 

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You have amazing eyes Karlos!

 

If you rock over the new frame and old frame on Meteociel you can can see that it is in fact (Currently at 108 old frame at 114)

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Posted
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL
  • Location: Birmingham 166m ASL

Still a poor chart but atlantic a little less progressive than 12z at 108. Euro high a little higher as a result. Baby steps....

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Posted
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather what else!
  • Location: Christchurch, Dorset
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You have amazing eyes Karlos!

 

Definitely a little more amplified around the southern states at 96hs, small margins and all that!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
1 minute ago, swilliam said:

If you rock over the new frame and old frame on Meteociel you can can see that it is in fact (Currently at 108 old frame at 114)

Also looks like Azores high might not link up with a small ridge there now

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