Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, M1245 said:

 

If the Ecm 12z verified, even the SE would have snow, hands down it's the Best run of the day so far for those on here who love cold and snow and a longer lasting cold spell

[Timmytour]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Although we don't quite manage the longer easterly here the ECM only manages to get this close because of its different upstream pattern.

Essentially what we want is something to help pull energy associated with the PV further nw away from the Atlantic sector.

So if you take the ECM T144hrs you have that shortwave which has formed in the southern jet interacting with northern stream energy.

 

As these phase on the next chart T168hrs you can see the PV has been pulled further to the nw.

As this more amplified troughing hits the Atlantic it helps to pull the ridge further north ahead of it. I should say at this time that NCEP were dubious of this south/north jet interaction and the ECM only just manages to interact those two:

Love this Nick....thanks much appreciated.

Such an ebb and flow of emotion not so much in this winter, but during this year alone.  Remember how, with virtually the last post in the model thread of the year, after charts that had initially excited and then got more and more lukewarm, Fergie "killed" January!!!  (Actually just passed on the latest views from EC32 and GloSea5).  Incredible to think that we are now seeing charts like you are showing....and to think we will have something, might actually get what they are showing and might even....... nah i won't bother! 

[Liam J]

Most of the UK has a covering of snow on the ECM, the only places that miss out appears to be the south west but some accumulations on the moors. 1 to 3'' for much of England, for N England northwards 4 to 8'' with more over hills and up to 24'' over the Highlands. Sub zero Ice days from Central England northwards but generally highs of 0 to 3c elsewhere, 3 to 6c in the south west. 

[gottolovethisweather]

33 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Although we don't quite manage the longer easterly here the ECM only manages to get this close because of its different upstream pattern.

Essentially what we want is something to help pull energy associated with the PV further nw away from the Atlantic sector.

So if you take the ECM T144hrs you have that shortwave which has formed in the southern jet interacting with northern stream energy.

 

As these phase on the next chart T168hrs you can see the PV has been pulled further to the nw.

As this more amplified troughing hits the Atlantic it helps to pull the ridge further north ahead of it. I should say at this time that NCEP were dubious of this south/north jet interaction and the ECM only just manages to interact those two:

Thanks, so most of our concerns over shortwaves and phasing are within D6 to D8 timescale then. If that is the case, I'm happy to wait and see how the outputs handle those dates over corresponding outputs. I will however keep an eye on developments across the ocean by the 15th January or thereabouts during forthcoming NWP outputs. BTW I cannot see it phasing at t+168 as to my mind, it is either still there to the West of the North Atlantic Ridge or has dissipated altogether, whatever, nothing wrong with a bit of difference in opinion.

Thankyou kindly Nick, cheers gottolovethisweather

Edited January 9, 2016 by gottolovethisweather
reworded first sentence

[chris55]

1 minute ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Most of the UK has a covering of snow on the ECM, the only places that miss out appears to be the south west but some accumulations on the moors. 1 to 3'' for much of England, for N England northwards 4 to 8'' with more over hills and up to 24'' over the Highlands. Sub zero Ice days from Central England northwards but generally highs of 0 to 3c elsewhere, 3 to 6c in the south west. 

Sounds great! Charts would be nice if available??

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Timmytour said:

Love this Nick....thanks much appreciated.

Such an ebb and flow of emotion not so much in this winter, but during this year alone.  Remember how, with virtually the last post in the model thread of the year, after charts that had initially excited and then got more and more lukewarm, Fergie "killed" January!!!  (Actually just passed on the latest views from EC32 and GloSea5).  Incredible to think that we are now seeing charts like you are showing....and to think we will have something, might actually get what they are showing and might even....... nah i won't bother! 

You're welcome.

I'd be much happier once we have cross model agreement, lets hope the GFS will quickly move away from its solution. Certainly the last week in the models has been one of the weirdest I can remember. Its been a car crash of emotions for members here who just want some cold and snow without all this drawn out drama!

[mike Meehan]

Just now, M1245 said:

 

Looking at different charts, possibly different geographical regions (I was speaking of Watford) and a difference in the timing of events - as I said in the 'EDIT' a week is a long time in Meteorology, especially since the weather has a mind of its own.

As far as the European cold is concerned at the moment it is mainly confined to the central, east and north but even now central Europe seems to be warming a tad, so this does not appear to be encroaching as far west as I had hoped, in fact it may recede east. It has only been like this for a few days so far and probably not yet deeply entrenched, even though a min of -28C has been recorded at St Petersburg.

Having said all that it is sometimes surprising the way weather events can evolve quite quickly and catch us all out.  

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Most of the UK has a covering of snow on the ECM, the only places that miss out appears to be the south west but some accumulations on the moors. 1 to 3'' for much of England, for N England northwards 4 to 8'' with more over hills and up to 24'' over the Highlands. Sub zero Ice days from Central England northwards but generally highs of 0 to 3c elsewhere, 3 to 6c in the south west. 

that's nothing new as it's been 6 years since we saw any snow, here in this part of Devon we only get snow from a SE setup

 

[Bartlett High]

Just wandering where the high pressure needs to be in order to get a blast straight from siberia?

[Shuga ice]

10 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Most of the UK has a covering of snow on the ECM, the only places that miss out appears to be the south west but some accumulations on the moors. 1 to 3'' for much of England, for N England northwards 4 to 8'' with more over hills and up to 24'' over the Highlands. Sub zero Ice days from Central England northwards but generally highs of 0 to 3c elsewhere, 3 to 6c in the south west. 

If the ecm verified, the lowest temps and the deepest snow would be towards the south/southeast.   

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

Sounds great! Charts would be nice if available??

Afraid I can't post the ECM charts as they aren't already publicly available, but it's a very good run if it's wintry weather you're after! The gritters could be out in force

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Sounds great! Charts would be nice if available??

here you go 

[ukpaul]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Afraid I can't post the ECM charts as they aren't already publicly available, but it's a very good run if it's wintry weather you're after! The gritters could be out in force

Icelandic Met use them, you can see most of the UK on these charts -

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

[phil nw.]

We had to remove a few off topic posts.

Just a reminder to please use other threads available where you can discuss will it snow in.. or moan or ramp to your hearts content.Links below

Thanks.

 

 

 

[Argyle1980]

All that cold air flooding into Eastern Europe.

weatherbell 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977]

Latest weekly BBC says cold next weekend, but turning less cold into next week. To me that sounds like the GFS is wrong...Defo nice 5-6 days of UK wide cold coming, possibly some snow in places and definitely some frosts...

 

[Singularity]

ECM went as I imagined (okay hoped) but the involvement of that jet phasing upstream does give cause to question it's reliability I suppose. Not that NCEP rule it out of course!

[Liam J]

5 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Icelandic Met use them, you can see most of the UK on these charts -

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

Much like the data already available from the ECM, I don't think they show 2m temps/dew points or snow accumulation charts for the UK only? as that's what Chris55 was asking for. 

[Frosty.]

32 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I would say look at the data that Frosty backs his comments up with and then make your mind up. 

Cheers Karl

Karl

[Liam J]

16 minutes ago, Shuga ice said:

If the ecm verified, the lowest temps and the deepest snow would be towards the south/southeast.   

Well I've seen the full set of 12z ECM data at 6hr intervals and that wasn't the case, I can only say what the charts are showing - Doesn't mean they are 100% accurate or that it will verify. 

[Mark Bayley]

11 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Icelandic Met use them, you can see most of the UK on these charts -

http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#type=prec

I am sure I remember a site where you could view precipitation type from the ECM, freely. I've lost all my links sadly. I think it was this one Cheese rice posted back in December? 

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

30 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You're welcome.

I'd be much happier once we have cross model agreement, lets hope the GFS will quickly move away from its solution. Certainly the last week in the models has been one of the weirdest I can remember. Its been a car crash of emotions for members here who just want some cold and snow without all this drawn out drama!

What you want cross model agreement!?! - we had that 3/4 days ago but do have to say I'm very cross at the models at what we've been through since then and no doubt will continue to be, Good evening all.

[Hull snow]

I think once the cold gets here the cold will keep getting extended as is now been shown by ecm and ukmo 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

What you want cross model agreement!?! - we had that 3/4 days ago but do have to say I'm very cross at the models at what we've been through since then and no doubt will continue to be, Good evening all.

We should take out a class action suit against the NWP for emotional distress! lol Its exhausting especially with all the chopping and changing. The other day it was the UKMO by itself against the ECM/GFS and that didn't bode well. I'd be astonished if both the ECM/UKMO are wrong at T96hrs and T120hrs. Collectively that should be the Royal Flush against the GFS two pairs but its been a weird week so nothing would surprise me.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Hull snow said:

I think once the cold gets here the cold will keep getting extended as is now been shown by ecm and ukmo 

This is my hope that the Arctic maritime airmass, once established, becomes entrenched and increasingly difficult to shift and then any Atlantic disturbances which bump into the cold pool will produce a lot of snow and the cold is locked in which is my dream.