Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Eh! You're having a laugh. That's a great chart, we want the shortwave to drop se and allow high pressure to develop to the ne.

I know Nick, I really meant just that actual day, all pure FI anyway,

[Day 10]

I asked the ECM yesterday for this GFS perbutation 16

It's had a good go!

[Captain Shortwave]

Really good effort from the ECM tonight, after the first attempt to push the Canadian trough east it tries again around day 7/8

A more significant feature but ultimately it dives south east through the UK, it briefly turns less cold (not even average temperatures at the highest level).

Good day 9 chart

A bracing north easterly wind, especially in the south east. Surely there would be snow showers in the mix there.

The important part for me at the moment is the day 4/5 region. The GFS solution in terms of operationals is isolated tonight which if it backs down is a good start for extending and increasing the potency of the spell of cold weather.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

May be a bit early steve...but any chance of one of your snow risk maps for thurs fri....cheers.

Message me tomorrow

 

good height build as expected TBH after the 168 it was only going 1 way -

nice easterly at 216 - then at the very least a very cold high at 240 !

s

[sn0wman]

Snow showers feeding into eastern counties on a brisk north-easterly wind  

Has to be stressed that it is too far away to be given much credence, but it's nice to see upgrades in the longevity of this cold spell instead of the downgrades we've been seeing the past few days!

[doctor32]

Overall i'm personally pleased, more so as i live up north in a favoured spot if these charts verify near the time. 

 

Still plenty to change over next few runs regarding what happens thursday onwards

[Frosty.]

It's well and truly game on again for a significant cold spell with snow featuring more and more as time goes on..Look at those thicknesses falling through next week..I'm loving this Ecm 12z, becoming much colder with widespread frosts, ice and lovelyyyy Snowwww as Mr crazy snowman used to say and might have to tell the family about it soon..

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I know Nick, I really meant just that actual day, all pure FI anyway,

LMAO! Oh I see you want your snow on the ground to last. Could you accept a thaw for an easterly? Yes FI and the ECM does something upstream that the GFS/UKMO don't in terms of that southern stream shortwave phasing with the PV lobe.

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

When I mean a better alignment, refers to ridge from the Azores. Any wave development over the high would now move from South of Iceland across Ireland along the axis of the NWly jet. Have seen this happen many times, usually produces snowfall across the spine of the country. Well that's another scenario that could develop in the outlook. Still great viewing as this lot starts to show all sorts of sulutions.

 C

Ok , here it goes. The shortwave I mentioned earlier. This is ripe to move down the spine of the country, should produce snowfall, especially in the east. Could be followed by a rise of pressure to the NW. This is a good development, similar to what I think the UKMO post 144 hours would be looking like.

 C

[weather eater]

I can sense that some are thinking the GFS is out on its own and must back down. While I hope that's the case I've been watching weather models for a good few years and I've seen it plenty of times. and the big bad lone wolf beats the pack more often than you might think. In any case post 120hrs there will be a lot more evolution to come.

[SMU]

IMBY FOR THE NW KENT MOB

 

[Shuga ice]

13 minutes ago, sn0wman said:

Fantastic +192h chart from the ECM tonight! You could tell from all the WAA moving into Greenland at 168 hrs that this was going to happen. That shortwave moving SE would be a very good snow event for much of the country. Easterly incoming?  Certainly looks a lot more promising for us coldies today  

That's what I was looking for, there is a good chance of an easterly developing.  This chart has widespread snow, away from the northwest.

[Mucka]

Right my mood is much improved after this evenings output. I feared it may move toward GFS but if anything it has moved further away.

Surely GFS has to fall in line tomorrow.

I shall enjoy my pint much more tonight that's for sure and hope to come back home and see a pub run full of cold and snow.

Edited January 9, 2016 by Mucka

[danthetan]

18 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Are you sure that low has come from the Azores? I'm following the ARPEGE output and it looks like the Azores secondary low is just absorbed somewhere south of the UK. The SE England low has travelled from the North of the country.

http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/arpegee_cartes.php

Run the animation.

Exactly what I thought, and its probably for the better it did come from that direction

[Hull snow]

Thor they maybe better mood tonite great emc tonite game well and truely on gfs will backtrack always has same problem in cold default alantic

[Frosty.]

I'm much happier with this run, more of us would get snow next week with a real taste of winter which would be a big shock to the system but in a very nice way.. 

Magnificent Ecm 12z restores hopes of a significant cold spell which is the very least that coldies deserve after the very mild dross so far!! it's worth a Boom

[mike Meehan]

Can't see anything of real interest on the Meteo Ciel Charts - there is a brief period when we get uppers  -4 to -6C with the jet stream briefly to the south. There is a Greenie high for a short while ridging over to Scandinavia but that is too far north to do us at Watford any good.

I think the best I can hope for on the basis of this is some wintry showers during the course of next week which probably will not settle as lying snow.

Pity in a way because I thought the low temps currently in East Europe, Scandinavia and Russia might encourage a high to build in that location but the forecast charts do not show encouraging news.

[snowice]

Well for us over in EIRE in looks sunny and cold we would need brisk ne winds for lake effect snow and don't think the ne flow will be strong enough going buy ECM? But  happy with the run

[karlos1983]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Right my mood is much improved after this evenings output. I feared it may move toward GFS but if anything it has moved further away.

Surely GFS has to fall in line tomorrow.

I shall enjoy my pint much more tonight that's for sure and hope to come back home and see a pub run full of cold and snow.

Yeah, I must admit I had my doubts about the UKMO, but after seeing the ECM 12z, I will be staggered at this range, where the ECM really does lead the pack, not to see the GFS back down by tomorrow morning. But (disclaimer) I will wait to see the ECM ENS before I totally declare that.

If the ENS don't put that run as a cold outlier, then I'm fully on the side of the ECM, purely because it eats the GFS for dinner within this time frame.

Infact, if the GFS does start to back down, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see upgrades from the ECM.

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

Although we don't quite manage the longer easterly here the ECM only manages to get this close because of its different upstream pattern.

Essentially what we want is something to help pull energy associated with the PV further nw away from the Atlantic sector.

So if you take the ECM T144hrs you have that shortwave which has formed in the southern jet interacting with northern stream energy.

 

As these phase on the next chart T168hrs you can see the PV has been pulled further to the nw.

As this more amplified troughing hits the Atlantic it helps to pull the ridge further north ahead of it. I should say at this time that NCEP were dubious of this south/north jet interaction and the ECM only just manages to interact those two:

[chionomaniac]

The GFS ensembles have never really wavered from an overall cold theme and until they do then the operational run should always be treated with caution. ECM and UKMO show this.

The pendulum swings continue.... it is leading into an epic chase this one  - will it be rewarded?

[M1245]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm much happier with this run, more of us would get snow next week with a real taste of winter which would be a big shock to the system but in a very nice way.. 

Magnificent Ecm 12z restores hopes of a significant cold spell which is the very least that coldies deserve after the very mild dross so far!! 

3 minutes ago, mike Meehan said:

Can't see anything of real interest on the Meteo Ciel Charts - there is a brief period when we get uppers  -4 to -6C with the jet stream briefly to the south. There is a Greenie high for a short while ridging over to Scandinavia but that is too far north to do us at Watford any good.

I think the best I can hope for on the basis of this is some wintry showers during the course of next week which probably will not settle as lying snow.

 

Can someone please clarify? Extremely contrasting views and a little confusing to he untrained eye?

[chris55]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The GFS ensembles have never really wavered from an overall cold theme and until they do then the operational run should always be treated with caution. ECM and UKMO show this.

The pendulum swings continue.... it is leading into an epic chase this one  - will it be rewarded?

Yes Chiono, I was going to post the GFS ens and say the same thing. The GFS op has been a mild outlier for the past few runs, but overall the spread has been in favour of colder rather than mild. Though the GFS 12z ens have definitely clustered more towards the colder side in the mid term. 

But overall tonight a good set of runs in all.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, M1245 said:

 

I would say look at the data that Frosty backs his comments up with and then make your mind up. He like many others always backup what they think they see. And like Frosty points out, it is going to get cold and some will see snow, no question about it. You will probably get better idea of your locations risk of snow from the regional threads if that's what you are after, as all the talk will be for in your back yard. but a lot of water to go under the bridge before pin pointing where it may or may not snow IMO.

[Catacol]

Yep - GFS out on its own and the good ship Snowfall heads back on track - at least for now.

Actually if we do end up with a sustained spell of cool to cold weather we must be realistic and expect some variations and days of less cold. Running the 1962 and 1947 winters reveals short spells where the temps recovered a little, but the pattern continued to assert itself overall and the cold returned. Realism as well as optimism over the next few weeks is important.