Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Timbo]

1 minute ago, M1245 said:

What time does the ECM roll out?

From 18.00 to19.00hrs

[Bullseye]

Well currently Scotland is having good bit of snow especially further south, Glasgow has slightly suprising snowfall too with heaviest snow falling just now and hasn't gone above 2-3 degress. With all that said Scotland should expect at least 10-14days of cold weather with continued snowfalls I would assume. I don't think the latest model changes will have much of an impact on temps in Scotland compared to further south. Then the following week seems to be undecided with the subtropical and energy around Greenland area.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Bullseye

[Iceberg]

Gefs between t144 and t200 show us nothing.  Almost every scenario you can think of and most starting early in the run. Quite a few cold ones though but pretty much anything is up for grabs.

ecm will not prove anything imho as I have no doubt it will be total disarray amongst its members. 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

And what would this likely result in down the line IDO, serious question? I'm talking about mid-range rather than D10 or beyond.

Not sure, depends where the WAA and associated ridging goes from the cut off low. Though the op has been consistent over the last three runs and the GEFS are now following suite. So an upper ridge east of the LP and then a surface high developing from there is reasonable. 

[Day 10]

Ensemble 16 or 17 please ECM

[Harsh Climate]

JMA at 84h likely to be another cracking run

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[ukpaul]

1 minute ago, Minus 10 said:

Ensemble 16 or 17 please ECM

There were three perturbations that, by 90h, were modelling the Arctic by not shunting the high away and keeping it more in line with the CPC charts, those being 5, 7 & 17. It is no surprise to see how different they turn out to what the op and its cluster show days down the line. Who models the Arctic the best?

[IDO]

D10 on the GEFS and the less said the better:  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

[Harsh Climate]

Lets just be glad that the GFS operational wasn't like GFS ESMEMBLES member 13

 

Only to see on the esembles it was a huge cold outliar lol

Edited January 8, 2016 by Harsh Climate

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 on the GEFS and the less said the better:  http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

To be honest, all that shows is the GFS doesn't have a Scooby.

[nick sussex]

Overall a disappointing start to the evenings outputs. At least we can put the UKMO trauma behind us until the next one appears!

Still one wonders how on earth it got the pattern so wrong at just T96hrs. That's normally the preserve of the GFS. I wonder what awaits us on the ECM?

On a lighter note the GFS operationals have been dumped by NCEP from the 13th and aren't included in the WPC outlook past that point.

Edit that, given the time of that update its definitely not including either 00hrs or 06hrs runs. As for the 12hrs we'll know more later in the State forecasts.

Edited January 8, 2016 by nick sussex

[snowmadchrisuk]

17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

GEM to the rescue.....wll just shows...who knows?

 

 

BFTP

Gem was the Model that wouldn't agree with the big 3, when they were showing the Cigar charts . Now it is showing the opposite gives us all faith

[snowangel32]

Hard not to be negative, GFS seems to have been the trend setter in recent times, UKMO has taken a step towards it and fully expect the Ecm to agree. And also more ensembles starting to back the OP. If we get cross model agreement I think we can kiss goodbye to a cold spell. ECM is crucial tonight I think, but on the positive side next week will get a lot colder with snow for some. Cmon ECM.

[Iceberg]

Gfs ens 500 variability at t144. No coincidence that the areas with by far the greatest and very large disagreement are the important ones for us. 

[Singularity]

What on earth is GEFS doing with the MJO... it's not a stunt plane, it's a long-distance cruiser!

No wonder it becomes so mobile, as GLAAM is sent into 8/1 instead of holding on in 7 as we want (and many expect) to see. Best put the det. to one side IMO - though I know some will disagree with that idea. How early it's output will have been impacted I'm not sure, but I have a source who reckons it could be as early as +102 hours with respect to the Atlantic pattern.

 

This gives me enough cause to latch onto the fact that UKMO shuts the door on the Greenland High trying to escape to the U.S. 

As long as it's locked in to our NW, things can stay interesting while we wait for GP's 'torpedo' to land (this being still beyond the range of reliable guidance).

Today ECM has been adjusting the MJO amplificaton upward as it travels through to phase 1, so it will be interesting to see whether that helps to lock-in the U.S. trough beyond day 6 on the 12z det. or at least leaves the door open for a low from the Pacific to invade the western U.S. which is what appears to take place on that UKMO run between +120 and +144.

[Allseasons-Si]

The cma pulls one out the bag,huge dumping of snow at 144hrs,IF that was to verify of cause,but a possibility

 

[snowangel32]

4 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

CMA trying to stand firm.

We know things are going downhill fast when we have to show the GEM, JMA, CMA, NASA models lol.

[Mucka]

GFS ensembles London (ish) not pretty but the Op was progressive and on the  mild side.

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFS ensembles London (ish) not pretty but the Op was progressive and on the  mild side.

Indeed - the ensembles are trending the wrong way and fast!

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

We know things are going downhill fast when we have to show the GEM, JMA, CMA, NASA models lol.

Not really. You can remove JMA from that list - as has been said on here before, JMA is well respected by the MetOffice. 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

We know things are going downhill fast when we have to show the GEM, JMA, CMA, NASA models lol.

It's still model discussion though snowangel,you never know,cma it could be right

Edited January 8, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[stratty]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

We know things are going downhill fast when we have to show the GEM, JMA, CMA, NASA models lol.

.....I seem to remember the CMA being correct though on the 3rd July 2005 at +48hrs, so keep the faith  

[Singularity]

That GEM run... how did I overlook that? It's a great representation of what's possible so long as the blocking is held in place to our NW, even if the NAO becomes more west-based with the jet firing underneath.

The target for the ECM 12z det. has been acquired.

[dinger]

Just had the best snowfall locally in years.  Forecast was for possible light rain from the skirting edge of a small front but not 3 inches of snow.

My point in relation to the models is if the met office couldn't forecast it and the models didn't show it at 6hrs out ,what chance have they of being accurate 144 hrs out?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, stratty said:

.....I seem to remember the CMA being correct though on the 3rd July 2005 at +48hrs, so keep the faith  

You'd have a hard job, pretty sure it didn't exist for public viewing back then!