Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

If Armageddon deep freeze doesn't happen next week, then heights look to remain high over Greenland area for the foreseeable, so whilst this remains  the way then anything good can still happen.

Until the time that deep freeze Armageddon happens we can either crack on with our lives as normal, be happy and  positive or we can go into a manic depressive state. I know which one I prefer :-)

[Singularity]

19 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Azores low is blocked on this run.

Funny how it goes sometimes. I mused that if the Azores low was further south we could just about get away with what GFS does upstream and this run is having a go at proving that.

Who fancies a west-based NAO omega block? 

That play by the Siberian high is an interesting notion and shows just how far we are from resolving this. Given the expectation that GLAAM will be in uncharted territory for a number of days now, this is not surprising. It's the reason why I've not yet called the potential for a lengthier cold spell (as opposed to cold snap) a bust.

However, I'd set the upper limit at about a week for now, followed by a briefly less cold theme while we look for another bout of WAA off the U.S. I'm still not buying the trough powering across the Atlantic that GFS shows - more an ECM 00z det. type scenario, but without the AO going so neutral later and better amplification upstream +192 to +240. Fingers crossed.

I'll ease off the depth of analysis for a time now, as it's a bit much to keep on doing with such volatile model output. I'm yawning at 10:40 in the morning! This is of course the cue for epic charts to return this evening 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Singularity

[Carlrg]

Those 850's aren't to be sniffed at.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[winterof79]

13 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

The sub tropical air does not come through on this run and instead in the Day 7-9 timeframe the Tm is pushed northwards as WAA. Far too many judging a very complicated set up too early, but it goes to show the total uncertainty still in the models.

Totally agree Iceberg,best to look at 12z only for more exact variation but peruse the other runs. 

[Duane S.]

I hope the 06z has highlighted the uncertainties of this upcoming cold spell to those already writing it off on this forum. Not a stella run by any stretch of the imagination (up to D7) but it handles the deep (relatively speaking) sub tropical low differently (that will become a common theme) and et viola we are heading off down a different route again mid term...

Going to be some wild variations in the offing over the next few days I feel. Those of a nervous disposition should take a break for a while.

[Summer Sun]

Still plenty of cold air on the 06z for next week

 

Then later next weekend and into the following week milder air pushes back in as the flow turns more south westerly

 

Many more runs before next weekend it will turn colder next week it should also be a lot drier and lets face it many areas are in desperate need of something drier now some parts will also get some wintry showers some won't

Edited January 8, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Polar Maritime]

The GFS 6z continues to show a cold Northerly flow into next week, With overnight sub-zero temps and the chance of snow showers almost anywhere. The usual choppy synoptic's further into the runs continue as expected.. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[mb018538]

Poor 6z again, a small coldish blast is replaced by yet more SW mush. Real cold ends up in the Balkans again. How can it be that we have a rampant jet and no blocking in December leading to the awful mildness we had.....then we get a massive arctic high, Greenland high, AO and NAO all in our favour.....yet still potentially end up with the same cack weather. Just doesn't seem fair at all!

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I hope the 06z has highlighted the uncertainties of this upcoming cold spell to those already writing it off on this forum. Not a stella run by any stretch of the imagination (up to D7) but it handles the deep (relatively speaking) sub tropical low differently (that will become a common theme) and et viola we are heading off down a different route again mid term...

Going to be some wild variations in the offing over the next few days I feel. Those of a nervous disposition should take a break for a while.

Indeed, and on that basis, the latest from Ian Fergusson on Twitter (in response to a query about model output):

"All models are currently experiencing high sensitivity to initial (starting) conditions, and this level of volatility in outcome is not expected to improve quickly. So no solution can be considered definitive. ….And sure enough, the model chaos continues, and is expected to do so for a while".

[i luv snow]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Poor 6z again, a small coldish blast is replaced by yet more SW mush. Real cold ends up in the Balkans again. How can it be that we have a rampant jet and no blocking in December leading to the awful mildness we had.....then we get a massive arctic high, Greenland high, AO and NAO all in our favour.....yet still potentially end up with the same cack weather. Just doesn't seem fair at all!

I don't think this has been sorted out yet, there will be lot's more changing. And with these sypnotics, you'd have to be excited about even further cold and snow prospects after next week's cold spell, which still looks fairly decent for alot of the country. Regardless, the runs will continue to play around with different scenario's, fear not.

[Polar Maritime]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Indeed, and on that basis, the latest from Ian Fergusson on Twitter (in response to a query about model output):

"All models are currently experiencing high sensitivity to initial (starting) conditions, and this level of volatility in outcome is not expected to improve quickly. So no solution can be considered definitive. ….And sure enough, the model chaos continues, and is expected to do so for a while".

Absolutely, The wild swings of late certainly tell the story over the past few days. Big changes in the Arctic as the models toy with different height placings. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Weathizard]

What an over reaction, just have a look through the GFS ensembles from the 0z and despite the OP and control going blowing up after day 8 as usual, I would say over 60% of the ensembles maintain some kind of cold flow.

UKMO still looks very good to me, GFS 6z I don't normally look at as much as 0z and 12z but had a quick look and still looking positive to me and I'm in one the worst possible positions to benefit from any of the white stuff.

 

Going to take a look at the postage stamps when I can but the ECM blows up that low after day 6/7 unrealistically IMO.

Edited January 8, 2016 by Weathizard

[snowangel32]

 

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Poor 6z again, a small coldish blast is replaced by yet more SW mush. Real cold ends up in the Balkans again. How can it be that we have a rampant jet and no blocking in December leading to the awful mildness we had.....then we get a massive arctic high, Greenland high, AO and NAO all in our favour.....yet still potentially end up with the same cack weather. Just doesn't seem fair at all!

It looks none to shabby to me possible ice days and snow and harsh frosts. And you really can't take the models serious at present they are all over the place read Fergies tweets.

Edited January 8, 2016 by snowangel32

[bradymk]

This is very rare that NHC publish something like this in January, not common at all. This is a feature that's going to cause the models and us some pain over the next few days. 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Models are all over the place as it stands, anything could happen. Let's enjoy the cold snap at least and see what happens there on.

[snowangel32]

6 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

This is very rare that NHC publish something like this in January, not common at all. This is a feature that's going to cause the models and us some pain over the next few days. 

Hi what does that mean is it showing the predicted track or is it estimating severity. 

[tight isobar]

I think some (including myself) are being misinterpreted here!

It's the exact points flagged on why so early I dismissed carrying on watching the 6z gfs. 

Not for point of whimpering away and sulking due to given synoptics 'but' the cross current model confusion!  

Its still very much an open  book with next week and beyond. 

However. ..I still don't think our real winter outbreak come from current model evolutions!!!

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts are regrettably having to be hidden again. Please remember there is a winter thread open for general chat/moans/ramps good run/bad run and the likes.. Just sensible 'Model Output Discussion' with charts to back up posts in here. 

Thanks, Please continue.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Going from experience , my take on this is , 

firstly the models pick up on the -NAO , and make them the over riding factor and brings freezing conditions to all.  

Secondly they'v picked up on the low subtropical jet and the associated Azores low , and just like they did with the Greenland high, they over egg the implications on the uk . 

What happens next ? 

The models get to grip with the handling of the major pattern change and slowly corrections are made , the greeny high will probably end up over central Greenland , a slight west based but not as dramatic as today's models , and the Azores low will move slightly northeast , but into France , perhaps bringing snow to southern counties , although I think it will only graze the far south . 

So we end up with a blend of the last weeks worth of models.  We go cold , not sub -10 850's , but -6/7 . 

All in all much to be positive about .

[gottolovethisweather]

49 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Poor 6z again, a small coldish blast is replaced by yet more SW mush. Real cold ends up in the Balkans again. How can it be that we have a rampant jet and no blocking in December leading to the awful mildness we had.....then we get a massive arctic high, Greenland high, AO and NAO all in our favour.....yet still potentially end up with the same cack weather. Just doesn't seem fair at all!

Yes based on one operational run, as Summer Sun's post above shows that would likely be the case beyond D9. Before that we have at least a FIVE day cold spell with possibilities of snow around for most of the UK. I'd recommend you take a look at Polar Maritime's post up thread to garner the ideas about the reliable timeframe. The reason I isolated both forum posts is that these come from experienced members of the Netweather community. I could have of course highlighted many others. Anything showing beyond D9 and more specifically from one run in isolation (GFS 6z) should be taken as a improbability right now. Just shows how easily people are fooled into thinking every chart is an exact replication of future prospects, er no... it simply doesn't work like that. Step back and enjoy the slowly evolving rollercoaster ride into colder synoptics. 

Edited January 8, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[MR EXTREMES]

ironic that the gfs 6z better than the ecm and the ukmo seems better than all.

so does this sub tropical feature aid the Greenland heights the 6z gfs don't look terrible and as was posted some tasty upper 850s so all is not lost.

and to be fair GP did say that it could well be west based nao.

but I'm happy to see some strength to the block in and around the Greenland and arctic.

the worse thing about all this is the drama is set to continue until a pattern is locked in and I should really know better than to call game over before its even here but I cant really see an overly exciting snow event here in the sunny costa south coast its so rare I'm thinking of moving.

but all jokes aside there is support from the ens that Greenland block becomes west based lets just keep the faith.

as nick Sussex and nick L have suggested all very messy but cant wait for the 12z now and I will wait for all the runs before jumping the gun.

but interesting model watching all the same.

[Man With Beard]

Still a very strong cold cluster on the ECM 00Z ensembles for London

[warrenb]

With forecasters still saying the weekend is uncertain, the initial starting point for the models will also be uncertain, so massive variability will occur.

2 days ago there wasn't a sub tropical low, now there is, the atmosphere is all over the place which model watching is great fun at the moment.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, bradythemole said:

This is very rare that NHC publish something like this in January, not common at all. This is a feature that's going to cause the models and us some pain over the next few days. 

Well lets hope it heads for Africa. 

It's not uncommon for tropical storms to meander in the Atlantic and actually head back in the same place they came from. Tropical storms and Hurricanes is where I turn my attention to every summer. So this is far from over(in terms of where it goes), it is incredibly difficult to predict where these storms track.

[phil nw.]

There is little doubt that in spite of model uncertainties in the medium range we will see a cold spell next week.

I like the latest fax from the met office at T84hrs that supports a quicker influx of polar air from the north early next week and this supports it's 00z raw output.

anyone who has followed the fax's for Monday will have noted their consistency on this.

Even the the more complicated GFS and ECM who are slower to clear the low complex away to the east bring the cold through ,although perhaps 36 hrs or so slower than the UK model.All would have negative uppers coming south through Tuesday though.

Interesting to note that the GFS 00z run was a mild run beyond day 6/7 to the end wrt surface temperatures.(Warks.)

so again like the ens shown last night after the 12z run we are still looking at a cold spell of at least a week before the real uncertainty of the evolution into week 2 shows up.

That is down to the behaviour of the Azores low and any sub-tropical ridging pushing ahead of it.This has yet to be resolved so at this stage i would say great we have a cold spell imminent with plenty of cold days,frosts and maybe some snow depending on little surface troughs or lows that may pop up.

I find these uncertainties fascinating and the enjoyable part of chart watching and i am a liitle interested in next weekend too

get that low moving east and it would create some snowstorm on it's northern side as the sub tropical air engages with the cold over the UK.

Plenty to keep us on our toes over the next few days.