Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[tight isobar]

As highlighted above..

By IDO.

That Bermuda LP 'could' be the spoiler. ..but the track and ultimate setting will be defining! 

AND STILL OPEN TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY! 

[nick sussex]

Well that blxxdy Azores low. Just sitting there waiting to phase with the shortwave energy heading down from Iceland, this has been troubling me for days.

At worst any phasing needs to takes place with the pattern sufficiently se. Very disappointing outputs from the GFS/ECM. The UKMO somehow refusing to phase this shortwave energy. This morning I did a rather strange thing, I went straight to the fax charts and at T84hrs I thought great its stuck to its guns so then thought surely it can't still be an outlier only to be met by the underwhelming ECM/GFS.

I'm shocked that the UKMO hasn't backed down, we are talking here of massive differences within T96hrs. Anyway in an effort to find some crumbs of comfort I will do my best to see what NCEP think of the upstream patterns and see if theres any mileage in the UKMO.

 

 

 

[Gibby]

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON FRIDAY JAN 8TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A showery trough will move East over England and Wales this morning followed by a SW flow. The persistent trough over NE Scotland will ease away Northeast today.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles lies between 1700ft asl over NE Scotland to nearer 3500ft across Southern England. Snow is expected across higher Scottish hills today, tonight and tomorrow and extending to higher Northern English hills as well with time.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Becoming colder and still rather unsettled with some rain, sleet or snow at times and frost at night.

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream continuing to stream East across France over the first week before slowly returning to a SW to NE flow across the UK later in the run.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS Operational Run today shows unsettled conditions throughout the period this morning. The Low pressure complex currently to the West of the UK will move East across the UK through the weekend and the first half of next week. Colder air will seep South to all of the UK with a mix of rain, sleet and snow at times for all, the snow chiefly over the higher ground and in the North. Then late next week and through Week 2 Low pressure from the Azores is shown to move NE across the NW with wet and windy conditions and average temperatures returning to all areas a theme which then sees us through to the end of the period.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run today with solid support for colder conditions for all of the UK for a time next week with some snow in places. Low pressure remains largely in control too reinforced on a more northerly latitude as we enter the second week with a return to wet and windy conditions at times for all areas through Week 2 in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure clear East out of the UK early next week with a NW then Northerly flow across the UK through the early and middle part of next week. Rain and showers with snow on hills at first will turn more to snow showers near coastal regions and dry frosty weather inland through the middle days of the week.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the raw data reasonably well this morning with the complex Low pressure and trough complex across the UK this weekend simplifying to a cold and showery NW or North flow early next week.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning brings colder conditions across the UK next week too but then begins to follow a more GFS type route with milder and wet weather sweeping back NE across England and Wales later in the period and leaving Scotland only in the risk of any snow or sleet in colder air by the end of the period.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains its theme of cold weather extending to all of the UK next week in a Northerly sourced airflow. With troughing scattered about across the UK there will probably be showery outbreaks of sleet and snow especially near the coasts while inland frosts will be much more pronounced than recently.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today continues to show an excursion towards more seasonal conditions for a time next week though the progress and extent as far as Southern Britain is muted. Nevertheless it will become cold and brighter with wintry showers next week before Low pressure from the SW brings rain preceded by snow in places displacing any deep cold before High pressure follows across the UK from the West with High pressure parked across the UK with cold, crisp days and frosty nights for many by day 10.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart is still quite a good one for those seeking cold with the pressure much higher over Greenland at day 10 than the operational shows meaning that many members must be going for this more wintry set-up. Low pressure is hinted at too close to the UK and to the SW with pressure also programmed to be high again over Spain and Portugal. So this chart is not very useful today in indicating 10 day prospects.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output continues to favour cold weather developing but much more short-lived and widespread than thought earlier especially from GFS.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.8 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 90.1 pts to UKMO at 88.1 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 66.7 pts over GFS's 63.7 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM is ahead of GFS at 48.5 pts to 46.2 pts respectively. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   The synoptics across the UK continue to paint a bleak picture at least in the shorter term with regard to pressure remaining Low with spells of rain and showers for almost anywhere with snow on the hills as a Low pressure complex drifts slowly East across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. This continues to bring the risk of flooding to areas which least need it and temperatures though cold in the North will see average temperatures in the South. Then next week a change is still predicted to take place from all the models as colder air is still likely to spread South to all areas for a time. The method of how this takes place is extremely messy  with the problem seeming to be the failure to clear the complex Low pressure across the UK cleanly East to Europe which if occurred would enable a clean sweep for cold Northerlies to come down across all of the UK and leading to a cold spell. Unfortunately this morning GFS and to some extent GEM has developed a theme that a Low pressure area near the Azores will be attracted towards the UK later next week due to the failure to clear Low pressure cleanly East out of the UK and with pressure rising over Spain aiding it to be pulled NE towards Scotland and ending a very muted cold period as far as the South of Britain is concerned. It would also bring a lot more rain and hill snow to areas that need to dry out and also create a lot of disappointment in those folks looking forward to what look liked for a while a prolonged cold period. Interestingly on the ECM Operational this morning all High pressure near Greenland has vanished by Day 10 but at least it's ensemble data is less dramatic about the weakening of pressure there. I think what we are seeing this morning is proof of how difficult it is to get cold into the UK in the first place let alone it lasting any considerable time. This spell looks to be going much the same way and while it will get colder next week the intensity, extent and longevity have all been drastically reduced today. However, there is still some days to go before any cold arrives and that means plenty of model swings both up and down in the days ahead and while I have to admit some disappointment in the models today I still feel all is not lost next week with some surprise developments in favour of snow and cold still likely to crop up.

Next Update on Saturday January 8th 2016 at 09:00 approx

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Well that blxxdy Azores low. Just sitting there waiting to phase with the shortwave energy heading down from Iceland, this has been troubling me for days.

At worst any phasing needs to takes place with the pattern sufficiently se. Very disappointing outputs from the GFS/ECM. The UKMO somehow refusing to phase this shortwave energy. This morning I did a rather strange thing, I went straight to the fax charts and at T84hrs I thought great its stuck to its guns so then thought surely it can't still be an outlier only to be met by the underwhelming ECM/GFS.

I'm shocked that the UKMO hasn't backed down, we are talking here of massive differences within T96hrs. Anyway in an effort to find some crumbs of comfort I will do my best to see what NCEP think of the upstream patterns and see if theres any mileage in the UKMO.

 

 

 

Nick I do remember from previous failed cold spells that UKMO was always the last model to back down. Could it be a case that it's lower resolution is not picking up on the details that often act as "spoilers" in these setups?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well that blxxdy Azores low. Just sitting there waiting to phase with the shortwave energy heading down from Iceland, this has been troubling me for days.

At worst any phasing needs to takes place with the pattern sufficiently se. Very disappointing outputs from the GFS/ECM. The UKMO somehow refusing to phase this shortwave energy. This morning I did a rather strange thing, I went straight to the fax charts and at T84hrs I thought great its stuck to its guns so then thought surely it can't still be an outlier only to be met by the underwhelming ECM/GFS.

I'm shocked that the UKMO hasn't backed down, we are talking here of massive differences within T96hrs. Anyway in an effort to find some crumbs of comfort I will do my best to see what NCEP think of the upstream patterns and see if theres any mileage in the UKMO.

 

 

 

Mods may say this is off topic but please bare with me, i have a genuine point here, why are they backing an outlier solution on the FAX yet their text forecast is and has always backed the solution that the GFS/ECM (broadly speaking) now shows?

[MR EXTREMES]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

As highlighted above..

By IDO.

That Bermuda LP 'could' be the spoiler. ..but the track and ultimate setting will be defining! 

AND STILL OPEN TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY! 

I agree it also if it runs east and not northeast threw into france along southern England could be a real snow fest so all hope is not lost but very disappointed to see the ecm remove our block we need northern blocking to sustain its location or move east otherwise vortex re locates in the area where we don't want it.

[mulzy]

The De Bilt ECM ensembles are trending the wrong way BUT still huge uncertainty after day 7.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

Quite a big shift in just 12 hours...

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Partly cloudy this morning with Cu and Sc. Temp 8C and wind SW 15mph

The cognoscenti over on the MOD thread have gone into one of their meltdowns this morning. Personally I find the formation of this low from the tropical cyclone very interesting from a meteorological perspective but even with ecm support this morning if this actually pans out as currently predicted I'll cavort naked on Brown Willy.

Knocker is having none of it though IDO (see above!)  

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

That LP system from Bermuda looks like it is definitely heading in our general direction and there is a 30% chance it blowing up by the middle of next week according to the warning issued:

 

 

 

[carinthian]

Looking at the very latest UKMO it would have to make a big turn around this evening to come in line with ECM same time model. The big difference on this picture is the position of the low to the east and the strength of the Atlantic high. This would advance the Arctic feed quicker than the other models. An erratic movement to start the week but the cold flow well established later. So I would go for a progressive colder week with bands of snow/ sleet in the circulation but more importantly drier week ahead for many. Hope this model in correct, a lot of assumption about a break down from the Southwest that can easily flip back to another scenario.

 C

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you i don't think the UKMO is perfect either, not sharp enough ridging IMO to bring a really bitter blast down and slice the Arctic completely, plus its not messy enough and would just give coasts showers, where as the other models are too messy with the shortwave pattern thus the cold never really makes it at all.

[mb018538]

If nothing does come of this, I want access to some of the data the meto and accuweather have been using! Both said yesterday they had doubts over anything sustained, and there is a greater chance than ever of this being true today.

[winterof79]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

As highlighted above..

By IDO.

That Bermuda LP 'could' be the spoiler. ..but the track and ultimate setting will be defining! 

AND STILL OPEN TO LARGE UNCERTAINTY! 

Well i hope it "spoils" near me i as i love deep snow.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Nick I do remember from previous failed cold spells that UKMO was always the last model to back down. Could it be a case that it's lower resolution is not picking up on the details that often act as "spoilers" in these setups?

The UKMO's resolution should be fine. Its not just about the Azores low though its the handling upstream. Very bizarre because within T96hrs in this type of set up we shouldn't be seeing this much divergence.

[Coopsy]

20 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

The dramatic changes are because it's 10 days away LOL. Honestly nothing ever changes in this thread.

I made a comment yesterday asking what the difference was to normal as it still looked like 7-10 days away and the cold could be gone on the next runs but being a newbie chart reader had no 'experience'. It just didn't feel right. Hopefully it flips back we'll see but big changes on the latest runs 

[Duane S.]

On 1/7/2016 at 1:47 AM, Roger J Smith said:

 

Firstly, No idea why I am quoting Roger J Smith, I can't seem to remove it from my post. Coincidentally I do agree with his thoughts though.

I went through the charts this morning and  yep, knew this place would be full of grumpiness and sycophantic back slapping for those who had urged caution. Do me a favour, these same people 'urge caution' no matter what occurs. Plus umm nothing occurred yet either

Back to the charts and yes, if we are looking for a swift uncomplicated start to a cold spell with no likely quick breakdown to follow then the MO probably gives us the best chance of that. 

But, reality check, we are STILL looking at a decent strength cut off Greenland high here. Who wouldn't have sold their Grandmother for that 2 weeks ago!!?? We are not looking at the usual collapsing Mid Atlantic ridge, we are looking at something that doesn't come about very often and whilst they dont guarantee a proper prolonged cold spell, a heck of a lot start just like this. 

So yes we may not get the proper cold winter weather in as early as some of the models had led us to believe but we get a Northern Hemisphere profile with a hundred times better potential than December!

AND it is all happening at the right time of year.

Good times ahead .Keep the faith!

 

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Knocker is having none of it though IDO (see above!)  

 

Yes it is early days for that feature to verify with respect to potency and direction of travel. Knocker's vast experience and knowledge is always worth taking note of and I do agree. To me it was more that this very rare shortwave development ~could~ disrupt the mid latitude long wave pattern just when we were seeing some strong WAA into Greenland. 

[Geordiesnow]

I'm also surprised the UKMO has not backed down however me optimism soon faded when I saw the GFS/ECM runs. Now I think its still a little too premature that we will get a west based NAO seeing as most runs especially the ECM but some GFS runs also has not went for this so I still would not worry too much about that just yet but i just can't buy into the UKMO's thinking the trigger low/trough will head eastwards as quickly as it saying it would. ECM has backed down slightly on this but really the big spoiler in all this really is the stubbornness of shifting the trough from the UK, it just delays and modifies the cold air. 

Still a very small chance the UKMO is correct in its projection and if it is, a west based NAO is less likely but more runs is needed too see if a west based NAO is going to be the trend forward. 

The outlook will probably turn a bit colder but to be honest it seems too much to ask for a nice strong clean cold flow of air, its all messy and complicated unfortunately and there are hints the cold may not last all that long. 

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The De Bilt ECM ensembles are trending the wrong way BUT still huge uncertainty after day 7.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=00

Quite a big shift in just 12 hours...

Still a lot of cold clustering there, bearing in mind the pattern may lead De Bilt to be warmer than the UK in most synoptic variations

[Ali1977]

I think the GFS just about to run will trend colder, not like yesterday's runs but still better...just a hunch.

[nick sussex]

I think given the timeframes involved if the UKMO has actually picked up on the right trend then we should see this in the GFS 06hrs run.

Even allowing for the GFS 06hrs run not being viewed as the best the extra 6 hours of newer data and the fact its what happens before T120hrs should mean that if theres anything to the UKMO it would edge towards it.

[karlos1983]

26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Comparing the ECM spreads with the mean at T168, you can see they're still pretty happy with a Greenland High (indicated by blue shading on spreads chart over Greenland), but there is a uncertainty over how far troughing from the north gets towards Canada + tropical low getting north (green blobs in the Atlantic) and how far troughing over Canada gets towards Greenland (yellow blob off NE Canada). 

The presence of troughing between Shetland and Norway looks consistently modelled throughout the ens, as shown by the dark blues/purples in that location. Now I would say, for once, that this makes some sort of N/NWly feed over the UK more likely than not, as getting a pattern to avoid a northerly from this situation is actually quite complex.

Indeed MWB, just to back that up, the operational does seem on the highside for London..

So very much a case of more runs needed. Until we have consistency this s not nailed on. if the the subtropical low does veer more east than north east, or just stays put, well we will see a different outcome.

[chionomaniac]

Even if the west based -ve NAO and Azores low does come and scupper any possible cold spell - and that is certainly not assurred, the NH profile is still very disturbed from the Kara high episode so I wouldn't rule out another favourable block. 

The west based NAO was always going to be the tripwire this winter and has appeared in numerous wENSO analogues.

[tight isobar]

^^^ I wouldn't be surprised to see the 6z gfs churn up a 1947 synoptics. .

Given the current situation. .I think just about anything is synoptic'ly possible

[Steve C]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I think given the timeframes involved if the UKMO has actually picked up on the right trend then we should see this in the GFS 06hrs run.

Even allowing for the GFS 06hrs run not being viewed as the best the extra 6 hours of newer data and the fact its what happens before T120hrs should mean that if theres anything to the UKMO it would edge towards it.

Was thinking the same, Nick. Awaiting with interest, for once.

[karlos1983]

The GFS P shows the Subtropical low going east, so thats good news in my book.

Although it ends in tears soon after.

Edited January 8, 2016 by karlos1983