Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[smith25]

3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

here's a thought- we could be looking at the first countrywide extended snowy cold spell for 5 years, now being introduced to us by charts like this-

but this hasn't come about from an SSW, it may be due to the vortex being battered by minor warmings such as this-

we have read forecasts which have been geared towards an SSW happening towards the end of january. Glacier Points 'Torpedo' forecast regarding the MJO is not due to materialise for a couple of weeks yet. suddenly, and it is sudden, as i've been watching the strat charts, this pops up-

could it possibly be that this potentially 'epic' cold spell we have just within reach could actually be just the start of something even bigger and better? 

maybe.... we'll see.....

I was thinking about the same thing... If it pans out then we could be looking at a true classic cold spell.  Imagine the charts that could crop up if this was only the start.  Kind of scary actually!

[icetruck]

Hi All, 1st post here but been a "lurker" on here for the past few winters,let's hope the models come to fruition to give us an epic cold spell to remember! Great to read all the posts by all the winter regulars on here looks like ll have some fun days driving across the A66! Happy new year all!

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

all  i say  if   the gfs  fantasy world  come  off this  place  could  go  into melt  down!!!!

[nick sussex]

The ECM postage stamps still have a variety of solutions in terms of the troughing at T120hrs. Some very nice options in there that would bring snow by that time to some areas:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016010612!!/

The short ECM De Bilt ensembles, bear in mind with this type of set up parts of the UK are likely to be colder than Holland as the troughing slowly edges east:

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by nick sussex

[Man With Beard]

I know I'm not famed for exaggeration  but this is the most wintery NOAA 8-14 i've ever seen.

[bluearmy]

You haven't been doing this long enough then MWB

note the uppers spread on ECM ens reveals quite a cluster of runs taking the jet ne just to our se days 8/10. we do need some Atlantic moisture injecting into the mix to liven things up a bit! 

[Timmytour]

17 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

here's a thought- we could be looking at the first countrywide extended snowy cold spell for 5 years, now being introduced to us by charts like this-

but this hasn't come about from an SSW, it may be due to the vortex being battered by minor warmings such as this-

we have read forecasts which have been geared towards an SSW happening towards the end of january. Glacier Points 'Torpedo' forecast regarding the MJO is not due to materialise for a couple of weeks yet. suddenly, and it is sudden, as i've been watching the strat charts, this pops up-

could it possibly be that this potentially 'epic' cold spell we have just within reach could actually be just the start of something even bigger and better?

maybe.... we'll see.....

It's been an age catching up with the thread from where I left it this morning to go to work....but I couldn't allow myself to cheat and peek ahead and its been lovely reading!

I've always imagined that an SSW can blow apart the PV.......but what always worried me - in an imagined world where without an SSW we were looking at the kind out output the models are showing us now that I never thought would come to pass! - is where an SSW could actually disrupt such a promise of winter?

Is it possible that just when we've got a lobe or two of PV right where we want them and SSW comes along and rather than enhance things....scuppers them?

Not that I'm getting ahead of myself expecting everything being currently shown coming to pass 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You haven't been doing this long enough then MWB

note the uppers spread on ECM ens reveals quite a cluster of runs taking the jet ne just to our se days 8/10. we do need some Atlantic moisture injecting into the mix to liven things up a bit! 

Are you impying a toppler Blue?

[Gazza H]

Sorry for being off topic but if folks haven't seen recretos's stratosphere chart animation over in the strat forum head over and check it out, amazing imagery ! 

[shaky]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Are you impying a toppler Blue?

I think hes implying to an undercut if i am not mistaken!!

[Captain Shortwave]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are you impying a toppler Blue?

I think he is talking out low pressure pushing north east from the Azores due to that parent low.

Worth looking at the JMA for a potential scenario.

Or the GFS op as well

Both would offer the risk of significant snow for southern areas if this came off.

All conjecture at the moment.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

I think hes implying to an undercut if i am not mistaken!!

Bit confused, i should have said do the spreads indicate a toppler?

Hopefully not

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You haven't been doing this long enough then MWB

note the uppers spread on ECM ens reveals quite a cluster of runs taking the jet ne just to our se days 8/10. we do need some Atlantic moisture injecting into the mix to liven things up a bit!

That's the high risk option and would imply a more western negative NAO! Given the UK's propensity for drama when it comes to wintry synoptics then I'd rather not see that implied. Its more likely to go pearshaped with the pattern edged westwards.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very good from where I'm sitting with a scandi trough and high pressure out in the Atlantic building north with the UK in an Arctic flow, good times for coldies for a change!!...

[mcweather]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are you impying a toppler Blue?

No he isn't . I  think  Blue Army might be suggesting the possibility of the fabled channel low or lows brushing past the embedded cold the UKleading to a snowfest for the south and southeast.Of course I might be wrong.

Edited January 6, 2016 by mcweather

[Singularity]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Are you impying a toppler Blue?

He speaks of the jet coming up from south of the blocking high, glancing the SE perhaps, with the UK tending to be on the cold, snowy side of the boundary even as warm sectors attempt to intrude (they should get mixed out a lot). A nice thought, certainly.

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Bit confused, i should have said do the spreads indicate a toppler?

Hopefully not

No EPS all looks good and if anything strength of Scandi trough returns day 12+ and increases potential instability in flow!

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

That's the high risk option and would imply a more western negative NAO! Given the UK's propensity for drama when it comes to wintry synoptics then I'd rather not see that implied. Its more likely to go pearshaped with the pattern edged westwards.

True but potentially the most rewarding one in terms of % of UK residents  that actually see disruptive snowfall.

[Wilxy]

Hello All. Thought I would throw this in as its quite interesting comparing the latest ECM with its Ensembles its not far off with a lot more uncertainty past the 13th of January.

Black line is the operational ECM

Red line is the Ensemble mean. 

[snowice]

Well waiting for 18zgfs hopefully that shortwave exits quicker into the north see like ECM Ukmo showed In 12z.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

No EPS all looks good and if anything strength of Scandi trough returns day 12+ and increases potential instability in flow!

Was going to post just this ed.  it's very unusual to see the 11/15 day ens lower the mean uppers over the UK. And mcweather is right re the jet.  the ensemble mean  upgrades the cold. At some point, the metoffice have to blink on this.

[nick sussex]

Just now, mcweather said:

No he isn't . I  think  Blue Army might be suggesting the possibility of the fabled channel low or lows brushing past the embedded cold the UKleading to a snowfest for the south and southeast

The ne angle of the jet attacks the weak point of the block, too far west and its game over as high pressure builds over Iberia. Then you see all the cold freezing the fish in the Atlantic and sw's trying to nudge in.

At this range we don't want to see any suggestion of the block being too far west in the outputs because this lowers the margin for error. Once you're in the cold set up then that riskier game of poker might be okay but we have to factor in an insurance buffer.

[Daniel*]

Well I have been quite busy, and when I come across this I dropped my cuppa.

Very 2010-esque as good as it gets really. 

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on..

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ne angle of the jet attacks the weak point of the block, too far west and its game over as high pressure builds over Iberia. Then you see all the cold freezing the fish in the Atlantic and sw's trying to nudge in.

At this range we don't want to see any suggestion of the block being too far west in the outputs because this lowers the margin for error. Once you're in the cold set up then that riskier game of poker might be okay but we have to factor in an insurance buffer.

come on nick - live on the edge! the euro trough would probably keep us ok. 

Incidentally, the control evolves similarly to the op and it's frigid in week 2. Perhaps pressure a bit higher. De bilt is going to be well below freezing. The euro trough is large and persistent. 

[Nouska]

36 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

here's a thought- we could be looking at the first countrywide extended snowy cold spell for 5 years, now being introduced to us by charts like this-

but this hasn't come about from an SSW, it may be due to the vortex being battered by minor warmings such as this-

we have read forecasts which have been geared towards an SSW happening towards the end of january. Glacier Points 'Torpedo' forecast regarding the MJO is not due to materialise for a couple of weeks yet. suddenly, and it is sudden, as i've been watching the strat charts, this pops up-

could it possibly be that this potentially 'epic' cold spell we have just within reach could actually be just the start of something even bigger and better? 

maybe.... we'll see.....

There was another route to cold that was discussed in the ENSO thread in the autumn. Nobody was sure why one type of Nino rather than the other was likely to produce the type of synoptics we are currently seeing modelled. The 2009 Modoki produced - the east based 97/98 did not - this appeared to be basin wide rather than central based but the composites look more like one. Just posted on this today.