Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

 

 

JMA 192

That JMA chart is not far off the Great Blizzard of January 1881 chart....

[gottolovethisweather]

36 minutes ago, Ian Moore said:

Forgive my upcoming 'lack of knowledge' question...i'm a regular reader of all the posts on this great forum..and for the past few days/weeks/months..all i've read is how this wet,windy and mild rut was set to continue forever....what has suddenly turned the charts 'on their head' so to speak???!!...i have limited knowledge but i enjoy viewing the model outputs!!....ps - i'm a secret coldie...hoping we all get some decent cold but i'm not holding my breath!!...regards to all !

Don't worry, some folk were very bold in proclaiming Winter was over in December etc. and that we wouldn't see any cold before February blah blah blah. Others held back from making those assumptions and its these type of equally brave people whom I have always listened to and continue to. Nevertheless our global climate is a complex system (too complex for me for sure) and Mother Nature always has the upper hand. We simply cannot fathom the unfathomable in my opinion, but there is no harem in trying to and I applaud those who do just that. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[The Northern Ramper]

If the GFS 18z follows the ECM240 then I expect the forum to crash between 23:00 and 0:00!

 

What I like tonight is that even though most models diverge in FI as expected, they all show different versions of cold.

Simply awesome

 

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Get your Coats Britain

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening. Can it get any better than this for wintry synoptics....?  Probably not! Better save these outputs, dare we look tomorrow?!

[nick sussex]

Expected upstream pattern from NCEP a big tick for tonights outputs.

LATEST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THE STATUS QUO WITH RESPECT TO THE EXPECTED MEAN PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BROAD UPR LOW OVER E-CNTRL CANADA WILL ANCHOR AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH THAT EXTENDS INTO THE LOWER 48 WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE E-CNTRL PACIFIC. BUNDLES OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM THIS LATTER TROUGH WILL HEAD INTO/PASS THROUGH A MEAN RIDGE NEAR THE WEST COAST.

The amplified troughing should stop too much energy spilling eastwards towards Greenland.

At this point my only slight concern would be how far east the pattern is and we don't want any shortwave energy dropping south near that cut off Azores low as that complicates matters.

I'm probably just overworrying things but I think we've overcome one hurdle this evening, just one more to go and then I think its sledge time.

Edited January 6, 2016 by nick sussex

[K9]

3 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Don't worry, some folk were very bold in proclaiming Winter was over in December etc. and we won't see any cold before Februaary etc. Others held back from making those assumptions and its these type of equally brave people whom I have always listened to and will continue to. Nevertheless the global climate is a complex system and Mother Nature always has the upper hand. We simply cannot fathom the unfathomable in my opinion but we do love to try and I applaud those who do just that. 

I couldn't have put it better myself!!..thankyou for taking the time to reply!!..i look forward to logging on tomorrow after I've awoken from my post night shift slumber...here's hoping that there's more of the same to read!! 

[P-M]

12 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Tis best always to use the ensembles spreads in order to define where FI begins by looking at the deviations of individual member runs. Without looking, I'd suggest it lies somewhere around the 12th/13th January at the moment which is which it'd be ridiculous pinpointing specific wintry events at this point in time. Irrespective of all that cold synoptics are a-coming to this little blob of an island. As for my deep cold (broadly speaking about entrenched nationwide snow-producing 850s here) forecast probabilities a day on from yesterday's 60% I'd say they now sit at approximately a 65 to 70% likelihood of happening. GAME ON!

 

Thanks for the reply makes sense - time to keep my head down and keep watching!

[JoeShmoe]

49 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Does not mean an epic cold spell will happen though and people will have to bear that in mind. The important things is that the models are in agreement on it turning colder and now the models are in agreement on at least trying to send some WAA into Greenland, its too early to say how long it will last because the details will change and that will affect the outputs but there is a chance we may be in for a period of colder air longer than perhaps first thought. 

most sensible post in here tonight ...

[Spah1]

What time the Ensembles out ?

[Mark Neal.]

5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What time the Ensembles out ?

8:30ish 

 

[Methuselah]

I don't think folks have much to worry about: it's early-onset easterlies that tend to fail, IMO. Early-onset northerlies, by contrast (2009 and 2010) are far more likely to happen...Early-onset what?

[easton888]

Question from a newbie: If the Greenland high gets itself together and forms a decent block, does that help the cold become entrenched over us? And therefore less likely for it all to go pear-shaped?

[northwestsnow]

I seem to have missed all the fun today

Tremendous outputs across the board- and i feel this is the key now.

ECM was the last to come off the fence but my gosh its come off the fence in some fashion!!

Whilst i am stupidly excited for an adult i do advise a little caution still, sound a bit like a stuck record now but i have seen stella outputs evaporate into cyberspace at even 96-120 so my feet are still on the ground.

The crossroads is 120 -144 IMHO-

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

 certainly as far as duration of the cold is concerned, the mid Atlantic ridge has to connect to Greeny, its around this timeframe that this occurs, when that gets down to 48hours i will get the popcorn out.' Yes it will turn colder next week, thats pretty much a given now, the Atlantic high ridging to Greeny will tell us if its 'snap' or 'spell'.At the moment it looks to be 'spell', but the next 48 hours will be absolutely vital.

Edited January 6, 2016 by northwestsnow

[phil nw.]

That was some ECM very similar to November 2010 at T240hrs so i would think any cold fan would take that as the final outcome.

We have a few days and many runs to go before we can relax though but even the slower GFS in the earlier frames develops and keeps the cold so a good reason to be upbeat.

Just comparing the 3 main runs at T120hrs

we can see the 2 Euro models have already cleared the main low eastwards into the north sea with the cold northerly already streaming the polar air south with uppers around-5 to -7C already into Scotland and heading into N.England.GFS perhaps 24 hrs slower but get's the cold south afterwards.

These are day 5 charts so we are on the start line now with the prospect of some exciting developments that could well bring a real taste of Winter not seen nationwide for nearly 3 years for many areas south of the border.

[Mark Neal.]

Straight outta Siberia! 

[kumquat]

I've really gone and done it. I've committed the Cardinal Sin and gone and spouted off in my office!

With charts like this - there's no time like the present!

[chris55]

28 minutes ago, Nigerian Prince said:

  That chart is for next Saturday(16) not this Saturday (9), so what are the chances of it verifying.

Gender male, location Battersea, London.

Exactly as it is shown, very slim, but somewhere in the ballpark, not out of the question. The main thing to note is the progression to that point, the ensembles and operational runs are all in favour of a pattern than is strongly leaning towards that kind of outcome. We are a long way off the day 10 charts as you surmise to in your post but as we stand tonight things are looking good. Though more runs needed....as always lol.

[Stormyking]

Busy in here Tonight! And no wonder why after that incredible ECM, it definitely has some remenses of December 2010  in there. The fact that Everything links up with that Arctic high is asking for trouble! 

 

Long may this trend continue! Of coarse we will expect downgrades and upgrades, will definitely be a roller coaster ride! Fingers crossed!

[Weather Observer]

The post I made earlier tonight on polar lows  seems to have vanished. Maybe that it disappeared in the blizzard of other posts! Anyway thought it was worth another go as there are parallels with where we are now and many on here will not have experienced a polar low. It really is something special. Has everything of the Artic but the polar bears.

On 7/8th December 1967 there were two polar lows, the second of which gave  a level depth of just under a foot of level snow in Brighton right down to the beach. There was thunder snow in the English Channel. The chart is for the 8th at noon with the low just discernible in the Channel.

[phil nw.]

Great charts for coldies this evening and understandable excitement however to keep this thread clear for model discussion we have had to move several posts to the banter thread again or in some cases remove them.

Please help the team by posting in the correct threads as we havent always time to keep moving stuff around in the busy periods.

Thanks all.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes as Phil kindly ask's, Sensible model discussion please during these busy times, Some post are having to be hidden as not to mess the thread up amongst the informative one's. There is a ramping/chat/winter thread open. Thanks.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[bobbydog]

here's a thought- we could be looking at the first countrywide extended snowy cold spell for 5 years, now being introduced to us by charts like this-

but this hasn't come about from an SSW, it may be due to the vortex being battered by minor warmings such as this-

we have read forecasts which have been geared towards an SSW happening towards the end of january. Glacier Points 'Torpedo' forecast regarding the MJO is not due to materialise for a couple of weeks yet. suddenly, and it is sudden, as i've been watching the strat charts, this pops up-

could it possibly be that this potentially 'epic' cold spell we have just within reach could actually be just the start of something even bigger and better? 

maybe.... we'll see.....

[bluearmy]

Out to T156 on weatherbell. Meteociel should be ready within 15 mins and ecmwf just before that

 

 

[mcweather]

The great thing about Greenland highs is they can lead to charts like this

Edited January 6, 2016 by mcweather