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Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted

GFS and UKMO about perfect at 204h and 144h respectively, we don't need to see any more of this GFS run as deep into FI. 

 

A crucial ECM coming up later, if we can have the BIG THREE in agreement might be time to place that order of wine/beers/champagne ; ).

 

Although this would then need backing up in tomorrows run lol. It's all about momentum and boy do we have that!

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
  • Popular Post
Posted

Oh no, dreaded warm sectors appearing..

gfsnh-0-210.png?12gfsnh-1-210.png?12

... of -7 at 210 hours. :whistling:

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

216 some decent WAA..pointed at Greenland. ..

Also not ignored' that feature trickling down the easter side of country@north sea!

gfsnh-0-216.png

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gottolovethisweather Accomplished

gottolovethisweather

Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
Posted (edited)

Another bonus, perhaps overlooked by some is that the Atlantic and the North Sea go into the freezer (not literally) from 12th January. So if the GFS 12z was taken at face value, all those moaning about our little island's Northern Hemipshere positioning (with oceans all around us) being a curse for snow-producing synoptics can probably THINK AGAIN.  :cold: A few days before the proof is in the pudding and the cold is in the bag but I'm sure you get the idea.

Bring it on. :D

 

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

As more as it's looking great we are already starting to see people about the massive downgrade to -6/7 uppers.

Um, you know Mucka's joking right?:)

Anyway, Crewe's purple 850s are edging tantalisingly close to Scotland on this run...

gfsnh-1-240.png?12

 

Edited by phil nw.
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Cloud 10 Veteran

Cloud 10

Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
Posted
Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Cloud10 find a better gefs member than the T240 op:D:cold:

 

 

 

:laugh: will do!

 

-4 uppers heading for north Africa at 240 hrs.:shok:

 

gfsnh-1-240.thumb.png.fffe1391215623ff65

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

As much as it's looking great we are already starting to see people  complain about the massive downgrade to... -6/7 uppers.

 

I think Mucka's post was clearly sarcasm going by the emote he put in but you better get used to posts like that(which are not sarcasm) because people will be expecting these charts to maintain all the way to 0 hours and it does not work out that way. 

One thing I be looking for in the ECM run is whether it will maintain with this morning's output and what the UKMO is showing in sending that low pressure system at around 96 hours quicker than the GFS therefore opening any floodgates from the North quicker therefore the cold period could well start on Sunday instead of Monday/Tuesday as per the GFS is showing. Then we will see if a shortwave will come into play and ruin things somewhat as per other ECM runs, it will be an interesting run regardless what it shows. 

 

Edited by phil nw.
quote edited ot comment removed
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Stormyking Rising Star

Stormyking

Posted
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Sandown, Isle of Wight
Posted

GFS going for a reload at the end! Theres only one way that low is going and thats South..

 

gfs-0-288.png?12

 

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Bullseye Community Regular

Bullseye

Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Um, you know Mucka's joking right?:)

Anyway, Crewe's purple 850s are edging tantalisingly close to Scotland on this run...

gfsnh-1-240.png?12

 

Funny enough I wasn't even talking about Mucka, just speaking in general on this and some people on Twitter. Didn't CC said something about Greenland high more likely to downgrade rather upgrade yesterday?

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

Well FI sends a SW South East and reloads the pattern , there would be a lot of snow UK Wide if things happened like that ... another stella run . 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

And a reload in FI as well coming up - I cant post chart at the moment though, this is a serious run in terms of UK snow totals I would think.

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Eskimo Accomplished

Eskimo

Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
Posted

The best run I've seen since March 2013. Stonker!

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
Just now, Bullseye said:

Funny enough I wasn't even talking about Mucka, just speaking in general on this and some people on Twitter. Didn't CC said something about Greenland high more likely to downgrade rather upgrade yesterday?

Ah, my apologies then. Crewe and others were discussing yesterday why it seemed impossible to get the extreme 850 temps into the UK.

Anyway, as much fun as this run is in the latter stages, it bears no resemblance to the 06z latter stages. Still, just for fun, ...

 

gfsnh-0-312.png?12

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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, Bullseye said:

Funny enough I wasn't even talking about Mucka, just speaking in general on this and some people on Twitter. Didn't CC said something about Greenland high more likely to downgrade rather upgrade yesterday?

Can we just get on with Model discussion please and leave other members out of it.Ta

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Anyway, as much fun as this run is in the latter stages, it bears no resemblance to the 06z latter stages.

Nor sure exactly where it starts to diverge (at work, so awkward to full-screen the charts to compare runs), but I'm not sure the 12Z in the middle stages bears much resemblance to the 06Z, never mind the latter stages.

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Harsh Climate Accomplished

Harsh Climate

Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
Posted (edited)

As great as this run is it offers little snow for 90-95% of the country! With coastal areas/northern scotland/northern ireland getting a pasting. 

 

What's great about this run is the potential and how it may develop though.

Edited by Harsh Climate
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Oh if only. This would be as rare as rocking horse poo!!!!!

image.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

fair bit of snow for most the country from this gfs run,very nice indeed,the cold spell seems to be getting upgraded as we head nearer the reliable-time scale,and not downgraded as some posters said yesterday would happen,because the models were showing less cold weather yesterday :)

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

A quite phenomenal run...

In terms of the "possibility s.

Its have on offer everything a cold weather preference craver' could wish for prolonged cold, And ample opportunity for some disruptive snowfall. ..countrywide. 

Need a strong follow on from the ECM!

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted

What a great 12z from the GFS!

Does anyone know if it's possible for polar lows to form in this kind of setup? thanks.

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Dunlop Dave Rookie

Dunlop Dave

Posted
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, wind, storms
  • Location: Channel Islands 5 asl
Posted

 

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Oh if only. This would be as rare as rocking horse poo!!!!!

image.png

Hello mr channel low !! Could the Channel Islands see another dumping like we did March 2013 ??!!! 3 ft and 15ft drifts !! 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Dare I say it (my inner Steve Murr has been aroused:D) that today's GFS 12Z is just about as good a model run as I've ever seen!:yahoo::yahoo:

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