Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[SylvainTV]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I know this must have been posted but JMA has wanted nothing to do with an Atlantic ridge before this evening.

Classic Winter chart.

 

The next JMA frames (up to 264h) are now available. They're usually available later on the evening.  They're not bad either !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016010512/JN264-21.GIF?06-12

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, SylvainTV said:

NThe next JMA frames (up to 264h) are now available. They're usually available later on the evening.  They're not bad either !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016010512/JN264-21.GIF?06-12

Now that is a thing of beauty 

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Now that is a thing of beauty 

Nice torpedo shaped ridge there, right on queue.

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

CC, I think the coincidence of GP post yesterday along with JH on BBC broadcasting this Arctic high and change of pattern for NH is what is giving some the idea that this spell is the real cold Synoptics we've been craving. Clearly it isn't, but for what it's worth, I'm happy with what the models are showing next week, as it isn't to hard to see how we can get a route cold even after the high drifts east towards us, which looks like the trend to me. The good thing is it looks like it will be much colder by this time next week, and I certainly welcome that, with snow chances for some, even though it probably won't amount to much, but if we can get some decent cold in and some hard frosts this time around, that will only aid settling snow should we get the second/third bite down the line, as the ground is pretty warm at the moment. 

That's what's confusing because it is the start of the cold spell. Just not the start of the really cold spell. It's also not a topples because no mild air will come in. 11th - 16th (cold , -5,-6 uppers) possible snow showers, features, 16-20th (cold but dry to higher pressure) 20th - first week in feb (very cold spell with north easterly/ easterly winds as the NAO becomes more east based. This is where the confusion lies. CC is calling it a topples (no disrespect but but mild air has to arrive from the west to be classed as a classic toppler) and GP and Chiono's are rightly saying actually it's longer lasting as after the North Atlantic high and showers we have a cold high and then more brutal cold after 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

So I think I've spotted my torpedo off the starboard side in the North Pacific.

Next week we see a strong jet streak crossing the Pacific. This begins to decelerate and amplify as it interacts with the trough in the eastern Pacific, aided by a further amplification in the Asian jet tied into a trough in the western Pacific cerca 13th.

The sub-tropical ridge is pumped into New Mexico and California around 20th. That instantly forces an eddy to break off in the polar flow as much of the flow is driven into the southern arm off Florida. Net result, mid Atlantic ridge is pumped north and north-east towards Iceland. -Nao triggered.

Period 17th January through to 7th February 1983 is your template.

Is that speeded up though, were you just talking of general evolution? Because that historical period would entail about two weeks of milder conditions before the interest starting around the 5th February. If that's the case can you speed up your torpedo! lol I think you may have caused an influx to the NW helpline if members think they're going to have to put up with two weeks of mild mush before reaching the Promised Land! No disrespect GP but I hope that template is wrong , perhaps we can bypass the mild bit and remain in a more palatable colder holding pattern!

[Catacol]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

CC, I think the coincidence of GP post yesterday along with JH on BBC broadcasting this Arctic high and change of pattern for NH is what is giving some the idea that this spell is the real cold Synoptics we've been craving. Clearly it isn't, but for what it's worth, I'm happy with what the models are showing next week, as it isn't to hard to see how we can get a route cold even after the high drifts east towards us, which looks like the trend to me. The good thing is it looks like it will be much colder by this time next week, and I certainly welcome that, with snow chances for some, even though it probably won't amount to much, but if we can get some decent cold in and some hard frosts this time around, that will only aid settling snow should we get the second/third bite down the line, as the ground is pretty warm at the moment. 

Agree very much with the last part. We need a week of cooling off in order to make any cold spell stick. Average soil temperatures in the plymouth area are a full 3 degrees above average at a 10cm depth. Lots of water, lots of warmth. A week of something much cooler and hopefully some frosts will be a great base for anything that follows... and I wouldnt even mind a bit of azores ridging in around 10 days time just to help dry us off too. The cold can then hit in the last 10 days or so, and any snow has half a chance of sticking around. I'm talking south of England here of course.... 

Edited January 5, 2016 by Catacol

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is that speeded up though, were you just talking of general evolution? Because that historical period would entail about two weeks of milder conditions before the interest starting around the 5th February. If that's the case can you speed up your torpedo! lol I think you may have caused an influx to the NW helpline if members think they're going to have to put up with two weeks of mild mush before reaching the Promised Land! No disrespect GP but I hope that template is wrong , perhaps we can bypass the mild bit and remain in a more palatable colder holding pattern!

Sounds to me Nick that we should be seeing some serious eye candy next week popping up in the models?  At least we know where to look now. All eyes on Eddy 

Edited January 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Catacol]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Is that speeded up though, were you just talking of general evolution? Because that historical period would entail about two weeks of milder conditions before the interest starting around the 5th February. If that's the case can you speed up your torpedo! lol I think you may have caused an influx to the NW helpline if members think they're going to have to put up with two weeks of mild mush before reaching the Promised Land! No disrespect GP but I hope that template is wrong , perhaps we can bypass the mild bit and remain in a more palatable colder holding pattern!

Ha - I think Stewart has said we are running a bit ahead of 1983 in the timeline, so I'm seeing the 1st Feb to 8th Feb 1983 timeline as looking much like our medium term situation!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Agree very much with the last part. We need a week of cooling off in order to make any cold spell stick. Average soil temperatures in the plymouth area are a full 3 degrees above average at a 10cm depth. Lots of water, lots of warmth. A week of something much cooler and hopefully some frosts will be a great base for anything that follows... and I wouldnt even mind a big of azores ridging in around 10 days time just to help dry us off too. The cold can then hit in the last 10 days or so, and any snow has half a chance of sticking around. I'm talking south of England here of course.... 

I never worry about things like that, you get a  PPN rate of 16mm per hour even if slightly wet, it will stick, as long as its sustained big flakes.

 

Just before xmas 1993 in Birmingham one Tuesday evening was a classic eg of that.

Edited January 5, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[SMU]

45 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

So I think I've spotted my torpedo off the starboard side in the North Pacific.

Next week we see a strong jet streak crossing the Pacific. This begins to decelerate and amplify as it interacts with the trough in the eastern Pacific, aided by a further amplification in the Asian jet tied into a trough in the western Pacific cerca 13th. 

The sub-tropical ridge is pumped into New Mexico and California around 20th. That instantly forces an eddy to break off in the polar flow as much of the flow is driven into the southern arm off Florida. Net result, mid Atlantic ridge is pumped north and north-east towards Iceland. -Nao triggered.

Period 17th January through to 7th February 1983 is your template.

last 3 gfs runs have toyed with this Pacific side evolution and dropping hints for the North Atlantic around 20th onwards.

Just to clarify ( & it may be that im being overly fussy )

seeing as this is a public forum -

Saturday you posted saying the key was quote [ classical -NAO 25th & 26th Jan]

then this morning it was the 23rd - 

now this evening its the 17th - 7th of Feb For this magical period -

if your projection is focussed on an event occuring on the 20th triggering -NAO on the 23rd - whats the excitment for the 6 days proceeding that - whatever it is is a long 6 days to happen....

take this whatever way you like - but are you just plucking dates out inline with how the models may now develop seeing as the 17th ( all of sudden ) seems to coincide with what the means project to be the second bite of the cherry....

in 1 day of modelling an adjustment of 6 days in your comments.....

anyone else would be accused of selective thinking...

 

Edited January 5, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Catacol]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I never worry about things like that, you get a  PPN rate of 16mm per hour even if slightly wet, it will stick, as long as its sustained big flakes.

 

Just before xmas 1993 in Birmingham one Tuesday evening was a classic eg of that.

Yes - but ground temps up where you are are on average a lot lower than down here. I remember the famous Dec 2010. Guess what? Round here most of it melted fast. The ground was simply too warm, and it took until January before any snow would stick around. Right now if any snow fell in Somerset it would melt from the bottom up... This chart is 30cm down.... but you get the picture!

 

[ukpaul]

Ensembles - London

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Catacol said:

Ha - I think Stewart has said we are running a bit ahead of 1983 in the timeline, so I'm seeing the 1st Feb to 8th Feb 1983 timeline as looking much like our medium term situation!

I missed that bit! lol No still don't like the template. It was brave of GP to mention that  although it went down aswell as a bacon sarnie at a Barmitzvah. We'll see what happens but I'm not convinced we're going to have to put up with a two week horror show just to get to see Bambi re-united with her mother.

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - but ground temps up where you are are on average a lot lower than down here. I remember the famous Dec 2010. Guess what? Round here most of it melted fast. The ground was simply too warm, and it took until January before any snow would stick around. Right now if any snow fell in Somerset it would melt from the bottom up... This chart is 30cm down.... but you get the picture!

 

Not true we had snowfall in the middle of Dec last month at 60msl cookstown Northern Ireland and the snow lay to 3 inches and lasted 2 days on the ground if the air temperature cold enough snow will lay.

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Ensembles - London

 

Certainly looks like the op was rather on the warm side from around the 15th to the19th then. I would read into that, the heights don't make quite as much ground towards the uk as modelled?  Not just a toppler, which with no disrespect to anyone whatsoever it wasn't anyway, for reasons already explained for what a "toppler" is.

Edited January 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Glacier Point]

comparable in terms of pattern, not necessarily temps as we seem to have more sub tropical flow this time round which is helping to perpetuate the northerly flow more into a European trough.

 

[karlos1983]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I missed that bit! lol No still don't like the template. It was brave of GP to mention that  although it went down aswell as a bacon sarnie at a Barmitzvah. We'll see what happens but I'm not convinced we're going to have to put up with a two week horror show just to get to see Bambi re-united with her mother.

Confused.com

Edit; I've seen Gp post, and now unconfused.com

Edited January 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Singularity]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to clarify ( & it may be that im being overly fussy )

seeing as this is a piblic forum -

Saturday you posted saying the key was quote [ classical -NAO 25th & 26th Jan]

then this morning it was the 23rd - 

now this evening its the 17th - 7th of Feb For this magical period -

if your projection is focussed on an event occuring on the 20th triggering -NAO on the 23rd - whats the excitment for the 6 days proceeding that - whatever it is is a long 6 days to happen....

take this whatever way you like - but are you just plucking dates out inline with how the models may now develop seeing as the 17th ( all of sudden ) seems to coincide with what the means project to be the second bite of the cherry....

in 1 day of modelling an adjustment of 6 days in your comments.....

anyone else would be accused of selective thinking...

 

I read GP's post as 17th Jan to 7th Feb 1983 being a reference period (analogue) for what GP is thinking we will see, not a projected timing of events in 2016.

 

Elsewhere, that JMA 12z det. run is fascinating in that it allows an low developed on the SE side of of the U.S. trough to head SE and merge with the low near the Azores in the 8-9 day period. Given the range, it's a valid option - though I'm not getting my hopes up, preferring to stick with the toppling ridge scenario for now.

The 18z GFS det. has done a better job with the second bite of the cherry while also providing further argument, on top of the 12z ECM det., for a short milder interlude between the first and second efforts. However, with much driving amplification to the pattern, I believe there's room for high pressure to be more in control of our weather rather than hanging out to the south as it did in Dec, which would allow for a more seasonal feel to be retained across some parts at least. To this, the counter argument is in fact the North Atlantic 'Cold Pool' which really did a number on us last summer. I do worry about that feature rather too often for my health 

Still, there's a fair chance that the paragraph above will be rendered invalid within the next couple of days, which is what makes NWP model output so exciting to follow at times like this 

 

[Singularity]

20 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - but ground temps up where you are are on average a lot lower than down here. I remember the famous Dec 2010. Guess what? Round here most of it melted fast. The ground was simply too warm, and it took until January before any snow would stick around. Right now if any snow fell in Somerset it would melt from the bottom up... This chart is 30cm down.... but you get the picture!

 

I suspect this post will be moved or deleted as it's off topic but for what it's worth I have often found myself cursing the rarity of a run of hard frosts prior to the arrival of a snowy spell of weather. It seems to be all-but-essential for allowing snow to settle readily in the far south - though Jan 2010 in Portsmouth (yes, on the coast!) did prove to me thoroughly that wet, 'warm' ground can still turn to white in the space of 5 minutes when conditions are exceptional.

Perhaps if we can manage to get some slack conditions under the fairly cold air next week, as the ridge topples in, some decent frosts can be managed. There are some signs in the model output at the moment that it might just be possible...

Edited January 6, 2016 by Singularity

[Woollymummy]

We might need a mini - storm just before the snow; I was in Oxford about ten years ago when there was thunder, lightning, hail and as soon as the hail had covered the ground very sudden snow, which then stuck and stayed for ages, it would have melted were it not for the hail.

[Catacol]

6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I read GP's post as 17th Jan to 7th Feb 1983 being a reference period (analogue) for what GP is thinking we will see, not a projected timing of events in 2016.

 

Yes - agreed. Pattern template. I dont think Steve has a lot of time for medium to long term forecasting! 

[nick sussex]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Confused.com

Apologies unfortunately I have a bad habit of using film analogies, generally at times of model stress!

The horror show was two weeks of mild rubbish followed by the gospel choir singing the Bambi song as he's re-united with his mother who he thought was dead, a case then of much joy as the snow finally arrives to the UK so that was the Bambi/mother re-unified analogy.

You always get this with me when the outputs are irritating, I tend to veer into melodrama and film analogies. You'll probably get a bunch of Star Wars ones tomorrow!

Anyway going back to the outputs the very latest from NCEP is still confusion for the detail in the eastern USA.

The longer range ECM ensembles still have a decent cluster keeping the cold for De Bilt:

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?r=midden&type=eps_pluim

Lets hope the ECM picks up on one of those tomorrow.

 

[Mucka]

44 minutes ago, SylvainTV said:

The next JMA frames (up to 264h) are now available. They're usually available later on the evening.  They're not bad either !

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma/runs/2016010512/JN264-21.GIF?06-12

Hey I didn't know that, thanks.

Yeah that is exactly the type of pattern we want to set up for prolonged cold, no if's no but's no shortwaves 

If that gets some cross model support all worries about longevity of cold are redundant.

[SMU]

29 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

 

It may appear like that -

but there is a difference - I posted what I thought would happen across a specific timeframe - around 2 -3 days in the future & left it at that - it didnt quite go to plan & I took away the info I need-

what im referring to in the post above is its ok to drop into the forum & state that this magical period of weather is going to appear around the 23rd of january due to these significant 'background' Global teleconnective signals - all of which I highlight are global signals not local - then just 12 hours later after what must be a spec of ink on the data thats updated on these global signals - the date has now suddenly shifted to the 17th -

The specific trigger event being touted - is now suddenly spotted in the models - but of course had no mention earlier...

so forgive me if im a little cynical as to the 'massaging' of dates around a forcast especially when the lead in period ( coincidentally not forecast by anyone who follow said global signals ) is quite condusive to possible blocking ....

at the end of the day though like I said I care not whether people listen or ignore - thats my opinion & if you or others dont agree then fair enough.

If it lands great - if not It doesnt matter either way anyway - just seems suspiciously massaged tonight to suit current modelling trends....

have a good one

S

Ps as for the met office they know that putting a specific date on a weather event nearly 3 weeks away is never going to happen

As much as you get is the comments from Ian on the seasonal models -

Edited January 6, 2016 by Steve Murr
To move discussion on..

[inghams85]

46 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to clarify ( & it may be that im being overly fussy )

seeing as this is a public forum -

Saturday you posted saying the key was quote [ classical -NAO 25th & 26th Jan]

then this morning it was the 23rd - 

now this evening its the 17th - 7th of Feb For this magical period -

if your projection is focussed on an event occuring on the 20th triggering -NAO on the 23rd - whats the excitment for the 6 days proceeding that - whatever it is is a long 6 days to happen....

take this whatever way you like - but are you just plucking dates out inline with how the models may now develop seeing as the 17th ( all of sudden ) seems to coincide with what the means project to be the second bite of the cherry....

in 1 day of modelling an adjustment of 6 days in your comments.....

anyone else would be accused of selective thinking...

 

17th - 7th in 1983 Steve..... He's just pointing people in the direction of how that cold spell unfolded as an example of how this one might.