South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Kent Blizzard]

I been keeping an eye on the GFS Wind 850hpa charts for the last week or so and seeing what they show in FI so far they have been running right on line with what the BBC 10day forecast graphics show. At present only out to the 13th but you can see the swing starting to take place but potentially not enough, it looks like a dry NW/N at present for those of us more South in our Region, East Anglia folks may do ok.

Interesting comparison viewing point over the next couple of days.

Now going totally bonkers and further into FI on the uppers 850hPa wants to give us -8 as we get towards the 15th and 2m temps -1/1+, issue being precipitation looks minimal for us unless we can drag in moisture from the NE and get that swing taking place.

Long way to go but atleast something to look at and monitor.

NOTE: I would not worry too much about the MO thread going bonkers and hissy fits, we have seen this before, no point jumping on the back of every run, it's more about trends and a big thank you to Storm Frank for kicking things off finally

Edited January 5, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Methuselah]

It's been peesing it down here, since some time during last night. I wonder when it's going to stop.

[Kent Blizzard]

7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's been peesing it down here, since some time during last night. I wonder when it's going to stop.

It was here but finally cleared up and we have had some sunny spells, ore rain tonight and then the potentially for mist and fog to form. I for one will welcome some cold crisp dry days.

[lawrenk]

Well the latest MO Update ups the ante a bit and even mentions possible sleet and snow in the south next week.

It does, though, appear to be a bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair and I must confess I never get too excited about showers from a Northerly as we don't tend too well down here from that.

Saying that, maybe this is just an appetiser before the main event at the end of the month and into February! Here's hoping.

[Atmogenic]

captured a few pictures and a video of the stormy skies.

https://youtu.be/edQMBJhoIDE

Edited January 5, 2016 by Atmogenic

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Nice! ^

Current look of Benfleet

[Daniel*]

21 minutes ago, lawrenk said:

Well the latest MO Update ups the ante a bit and even mentions possible sleet and snow in the south next week.

It does, though, appear to be a bit of a blink and you'll miss it affair and I must confess I never get too excited about showers from a Northerly as we don't tend too well down here from that.

Saying that, maybe this is just an appetiser before the main event at the end of the month and into February! Here's hoping.

Not quite more substantial than a northerly toppler..

+168

+192

+216

+240

,

 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

Dog knows I want so much snow I have to dig myself out of the house, but with only 10 minutes of snow shower since 2013 I'll take the briefest of sleet at this juncture. Even a frost would have me fist-pumping the air. 

My daughter turns six this weekend and the week she was born we had a rather respectable amount of snow. I suspect it even triggered labour. No heavily pregnant ladies on the forum, are there? You never know...might tempt fate

[clark3r]

Well I am pleased to say it is looking colder later next week,I am expecting nothing more than some frosts and colder days much colder than we been used too this winter! 

Hoping we get some snowfall next month!

******

above was my post yesterday lol, models have changed one hell of a bit today!

if they are still showing the same in the next few days then we will have a big freeze  and snow  current models are in line with Net Weathers winter forecast!!!!!

I really hope we get ice days with snow, people are going mad on the model discussions just hope they don't get too disappointed if this cold spell showing gets downgraded!

fingers crossed everyone we get a proper taste of winter next week with a good covering of snow we have all been waiting for  

Edited January 6, 2016 by clark3r
Updates in models

[Kent Blizzard]

3 hours ago, clark3r said:

Well I am pleased to say it is looking colder later next week,I am expecting nothing more than some frosts and colder days much colder than we been used too this winter! 

Hoping we get some snowfall next month!

Yeah agree, perhaps and outside odd wintery mix.

I have a feeling the MO thread will be lively, mainly coz some constantly look for extreme cold rather than a cold trend.

[PLANET THANET]

Hi there

     Just had a flash of lightning and a rumble of thunder and now its raining like a monsoon

[Captain Shortwave]

Fairly gloomy day in the end here. Neither mild or cold to be honest.

[Steve C]

I'm pleased the storm potential has hugely reduced. 

I'm also happy that the weather pattern will soon change, however cold or not so cold.

I wasn't a great fan of last month's weather - low heating costs excepted. Having said that seeing people cutting grass on Boxing Day and sheep grazing on lush grass was pretty extraordinary. A month that not only was by far the warmest December ever recorded (in 300 plus years), but was warmer than any March, would have been in the top ten percent of Aprils and was warmer than all but one November was remarkable. Probably the seasonally adjusted warmest month we've ever had. The weather enthusiast in me took note, even if the winter enthusiast was pretty disappointed.

[Blessed Weather]

Foggy start but not too thick. A chilly 4.8C.

Absolutely dreamy overnight run from GPS.  Prolonged and substantial cold with the -10C 850 isotherm reaching us and snow off the North Sea. The roller coaster ride is well and truly under way!

[Kent Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

Foggy start but not too thick. A chilly 4.8C.

Absolutely dreamy overnight run from GPS.  Prolonged and substantial cold with the -10C 850 isotherm reaching us and snow off the North Sea. The roller coaster ride is well and truly under way!

Yep, perfect output for us, puts us right into the mix which I thought only East Anglia would be yesterday, let's hope it continues to firm up over the coming days. 

I think caution needed though, we have been here before many times in previous years only to be let down. Its certainly not worth asking questions of " will it snow in my garden " at this stage lol......you know that'!! be on the way as soon as the Media jump on the bandwagon.

Certainly interesting watching for the next few days at least.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[afcone]

Things seem to be getting exciting in the MOD thread, with cold looking like it could extend down south.

Though I think this might be the first year I'm (temporarily) not a coldie... not until my central heating gets installed in three weeks as I'm getting tired of wearing two jumpers and a hat indoors and am worried how cold it'll get in here if we weren't having such a mild winter!

[mrkipling]

[Kent Blizzard]

12 minutes ago, afcone said:

Things seem to be getting exciting in the MOD thread, with cold looking like it could extend down south.

Though I think this might be the first year I'm (temporarily) not a coldie... not until my central heating gets installed in three weeks as I'm getting tired of wearing two jumpers and a hat indoors and am worried how cold it'll get in here if we weren't having such a mild winter!

The key is wearing layers, swap 2 jumpers for a thermal T-shirt, long sleeved T-shirt & a jumper ...as for the head Im not so sure lol

I feel for you though as that can't be nice, luckily it has been very mild!

 

[Flash Elvis]

Any idea's peeps...... anybody from the local area see it??

http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/14184056.Is_it_a_twister__Strange_cloud_formation_in_Southend/

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Foggy start but not too thick. A chilly 4.8C.

Absolutely dreamy overnight run from GPS.  Prolonged and substantial cold with the -10C 850 isotherm reaching us and snow off the North Sea. The roller coaster ride is well and truly under way!

Haha, yep I'm bubbling over with excitement.

Chilly start here wintry atmospheric conditions with the mist, shrouding woodlands. I'm glad my optimism was warranted I have seen it multiple times for models to backtrack in a sense, yet I was ridiculed! How everything is set in the stone, weather forecasting is much more fluid than what, sometimes you get the impression in MOD thread. It does irritate me a little, how some are so quick to dismiss on the basis of one particular run which will be different to the next.

Roll on winter  

[Kent Blizzard]

32 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Haha, yep I'm bubbling over with excitement.

Chilly start here wintry atmospheric conditions with the mist, shrouding woodlands. I'm glad my optimism was warranted I have seen it multiple times for models to backtrack in a sense, yet I was ridiculed! How everything is set in the stone, weather forecasting is much more fluid than what, sometimes you get the impression in MOD thread. It does irritate me a little, how some are so quick to dismiss on the basis of one particular run which will be different to the next.

Roll on winter  

It's just keeps getting better and better....... seems to good to be true LOL

vERY Nice Control run indeed.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

4 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

It's just keeps getting better and better....... seems to good to be true LOL

lol..

Am I dreaming?

It is becoming increasingly clear to me this second half of the winter is going to be EPIC staggering +ve anomalies to the north, sustained cold looks odds on to me. I have not seen model output as good as this since 2010. 

What we've had to endure over the last odd 36 months, it is perfectly satisfactory. 

[Kent Blizzard]

If we go mad and dive into FI further look at 384h GFS2m Temps at 00z ( 22nd Jan ) very cold -9 widely across the UK and decent snow cover lol.

If we can get next weeks potential set then who knows how this will go, very exciting.

[snowray]

If you like the GFS runs this morning, well take a look at the GFS ENS run of control, 06z continuing the theme from 00z with our fabled Beast from the East, -10, -12, -14c into our area.

[Kent Blizzard]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

If you like the GFS runs this morning, well take a look at the GFS ENS run of control, 06z continuing the theme from 00z with our fabled Beast from the East, -10, -12, -14c into our area.

Wouldn't rule out a Thames Streamer from this

 

Nice snow row, alot offering up ice days

http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2016010606/graphe6_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard