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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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8 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

And?

To old.....

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Beers in - check

Curtain open - check

Netweather regional forum open -  check

Snow - errr. Not yet

Good luck everyone

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20 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Looking at the radar I think east Norfolk could be in for a good night with showers forming and pushing off the north sea, falling as snow inland by the looks of it. East Suffolk could be in for some action too going by that lot.

Heavy and possibly disruptive anaprop incoming!:D

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Heavy and possibly disruptive anaprop incoming!:D

Hahahahaha! It's going to be a long night...

Edited by Sno' problem

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looking at the met app radar we are the cream in the snow sandwich here, snow to the west, snow to the east!

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Heavy and possibly disruptive anaprop incoming!:D

Just looked at the webcam down Marine parade in Great Yarmouth and snow is definitely falling there. 

This is a scenario which seems to get missed where any disrupting trough can sometimes engage shower activity in the north sea and pull it inland, this happened in January 2013 with the blob event where a cluster of showers in the north sea that developed and sat in the same spot for most of the day before moving north west in response to engaging the upper trough which brought the snow event over Wales the following day.

Speaking of anaprop, we have some here with the radar saying snow and the actual conditions being dry as a bone.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Not sure if the new AROME 1.3km has been put up. That shows the heaviest precip between 3 and 7 am.

The snow totals it gives is roughly 2cms upto 4cms to the west of London.

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Folks.. Do we need to worried about the easterly trend of this event.. Reports in the middles is that milder air is seeping further east than forecast.. 

Where is the cold air! Cannot we not draw in a little more from the continent.

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2 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Just looked at the webcam down Marine parade in Great Yarmouth and snow is definitely falling there. 

This is a scenario which seems to get missed where any disrupting trough can sometimes engage shower activity in the north sea and pull it inland, this happened in January 2013 with the blob event where a cluster of showers in the north sea that developed and sat in the same spot for most of the day before moving north west in response to engaging the upper trough which brought the snow event over Wales the following day.

Remember that one very well, Cap: snowing there, snowing where; snowing sodding everywhere. Except here!:D

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Remember that one very well, Cap: snowing there, snowing where; snowing sodding everywhere. Except here!:D

I good thing we got that secondary system moving up from France a couple of days later, that was the last good snow event I saw with blizzards for several hours on the coast dumping 4 inches with more further inland. Oh I miss those days :p

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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On the front line just south of Cromer, can report every sort of wintery precipitation, except snow. Expect to wake tomorrow to ice pellets still on the roadside, but for snow we just need someone to tweak those uppers a couple of degrees lower.

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20:00 update from Exeter suggests the extent of the precip from the weakening warm front will be Clacton. So, would expect anywhere South and West of there to see at least a few flakes.

Remember, just because you are outside the Met Office warning, doesn't mean you won't see snow. The yellow warning area was highlighted by the chief forecasters for disruption.

In regards to Monday, they don't expect any rain/sleet/snow to progress much further Eastwards then the Isle of Wight initially.

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Currently the safe zone re dew points is roughly in a line Hants/West Sussex border north.

In a few hours the new 18hrs Hi-Res models come out so hopefully that makes things a little clearer but these types of set ups do still have problems with how much might fall, it could be more or less.

 

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Just now, essexweather said:

20:00 update from Exeter suggests the extent of the precip from the weakening warm front will be Clacton. So, would expect anywhere South and West of there to see at least a few flakes.

Remember, just because you are outside the Met Office warning, doesn't mean you won't see snow. The yellow warning area was highlighted by the chief forecasters for disruption.

In regards to Monday, they don't expect any rain/sleet/snow to progress much further Eastwards then the Isle of Wight initially.

Good to have you in this evening Tom and always great to hear insight from 'the inside' as it were.

SK

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Nothing here clearish skies

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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

People please calm we are good... We are chill

Anything for Kent please ??

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Currently the safe zone re dew points is roughly in a line Hants/West Sussex border north.

In a few hours the new 18hrs Hi-Res models come out so hopefully that makes things a little clearer but these types of set ups do still have problems with how much might fall, it could be more or less.

 

Indeed, more impressive than was modelled actually:

pointrosee.png

16011621_2_1612.gif

The aforementioned AROME actually looks closest to the mark:

arome-18-8-0.png?16-16

SK

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

Temp 0.9 here, dp - 0.6

Hi.  Are you expecting anything here?  I think we are too far east.  As luck would have it though I'm walking in the west Chilterns near Hemel Hempstead with a  mate tomorrow so I'm hoping for something there!

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This should give a good representation of where we are around 02:00 Sunday, from latest UKV run. Expected error margin of Eastern extent is considered 15-20 miles.

2l8vzmd.gif

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Temp and dew point now rising :sorry: 1.7 and -0.3 respectively.  I guess it will be rain this time :nea: 

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