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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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I've started lamppost watching. But I think my female neighbour across the road thought I was looking into her bedroom...... Oppps. Honestly 'I'm looking for snow'..... Ha

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20 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

My line graph looking good.

26f71021ff615a43883f74f5d15a2c5e.png

Think we will miss out mate here in the east. Good luck to those further west though.

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Unfortunately I can't post the charts in here but the ECMWF 12z projected snow accumulation broadly in line with current BBC graphics though just a touch further West (to add to the confusion)

Whilst I can't show the accumulation you can see from the IMO the projected precipitation path:

160116_1200_12.png160116_1200_18.png

Let's be honest though, it's essentially a radar/lampost watch job from here on in

 

SK

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1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

I didn't take it as that SE:D....We have some fantastic people in here...well all...SM knows where snow is he sniffs it...we also have the mods, EE, Surrey, SnowKing...Tamara....loads others an we have Nick Sussex who pops in...so if we're guna get snow were well sorted...me..I'm just a very biased coldie:D....this is a fantastic thread...snow tonight please!

Cheers

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2 minutes ago, LeighD said:

I've started lamppost watching. But I think my female neighbour across the road thought I was looking into her bedroom...... Oppps. Honestly 'I'm looking for snow'..... Ha

Oldest defence in the book...

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There is a lampost right outside the back of the house, so best place to nose is bubs bedroom, but so far drawn a blank.

When I lived in eastbourne, my now  hubby was down and the forecast was for snow, of which I said 'it never snows in eastbourne'

and woke up to 6inches the next morning the most we had had for years.

he has never let me forget.

 

Edited by Dami

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Just now, Southender said:

Think we will miss out mate here in the east. Good luck to those further west though.

Nah reckon we could get a little action. Itv, bbc and gfs graphics look pretty good so im no discarding the idea yet.

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The main band of ppn that is expected to affect our region is still building nicely over the Lake District and Lancashire... That is the one to keep an eye on in my opinion, we just need the temps to stay low. I have a concern that any ppn prior to that will only make things more marginal, we want clear skies before the main band arrives to have a better chance of settling snow.

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1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

Nah reckon we could get a little action. Itv, bbc and gfs graphics look pretty good so im no discarding the idea yet.

I thought the same earlier, but now Ive seen how the band is moving and seen the latest predictions I also think we may see a bit of white stuff, I'll take anything, lol

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We appear to be just off the edge , good luck to the rest of you, hoping to see loads of photo's later

 

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Current temp 1.4 C with a dew point of -0.8 down here on the Sussex coast. fingers crossed for some of the white stuff later :D

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6 minutes ago, snowking said:

Oldest defence in the book...

She is 70 mate..... Ha

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Just now, Sandman said:

Current temp 1.4 C with a dew point of -0.8 down here on the Sussex coast. fingers crossed for some of the white stuff later :D

Fingers crossed. But it's always so hit and miss here. 

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Just started in northamptonshire bit of sleet/ very light wet snow.

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Just now, steveh19 said:

Fingers crossed. But it's always so hit and miss here. 

Yes, but stranger things have happened lol

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3 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

The main band of ppn that is expected to affect our region is still building nicely over the Lake District and Lancashire... That is the one to keep an eye on in my opinion, we just need the temps to stay low. I have a concern that any ppn prior to that will only make things more marginal, we want clear skies before the main band arrives to have a better chance of settling snow.

That's right IMO,

I've not had the time to follow this closely enough until this afternoon but if we take a look at the 2pm analysis:

analyse-2016-01-16-12.png

You can see a leading warm front ahead of the main disturbance. It's this that I imagine has been responsible for a lot of the anaprop showing up on the radar over towards the West of our humble little island.

It's the frontal system behind this as it slides South-Eastwards, decaying all the while as it moves into the area of high pressure established across the UK, that is likely to bring whatever precipitation we end up with later. Notice it has a 'triple point' of sorts (I don't know whether it can be counted as a true triple-point as there's only an occlusion and warm fronts involved) - and it's near to this point that the heaviest of the precipitation is likely to occur - that's what's happening across parts of Scotland/NW England at the moment I would assume.

The key question tonight is going to be how much these fronts decay as they head South into our HP. That's something that models often struggle with (either way) so it's just a case of keeping all eyes peeled.

SK

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8 minutes ago, snowking said:

Oldest defence in the book...

Hi Snowking, 

whats your thoughts on February ? A North Atlantic ridge with a -NAO

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2 minutes ago, Sandman said:

Yes, but stranger things have happened lol

Very true. I have to be up for work at 4am, so if anything has fallen, I should see it. 

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8 minutes ago, Sno' problem said:

The main band of ppn that is expected to affect our region is still building nicely over the Lake District and Lancashire... That is the one to keep an eye on in my opinion, we just need the temps to stay low. I have a concern that any ppn prior to that will only make things more marginal, we want clear skies before the main band arrives to have a better chance of settling snow.

Good to see you back Sno' problem a long hopefully fulfilling night beckons the wretched UHI and now some cloud cover is causing temperature to really not go that low, precip please take your time. 

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Whoop whoop.... I can confirm - just started SNOWING in Harpenden Hertfordshire!

 

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4 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Good to see you back Sno' problem a long hopefully fulfilling night beckons the wretched UHI and now some cloud cover is causing temperature to really not go that low, precip please take your time. 

Hi Dan, good to be back on the forum!! Hoping that a clear patch will precede the main chunk. But any flakes that fall will be welcomed... Good luck all!!

Edited by Sno' problem

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