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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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Unfortunately I find weather broadcasts for cold spells & anything to do with snow v poor when it is mild it is more their forte, it's more easier for them. Start of next week looks set to feature significant snow somewhere in the country, I'm quite sure of that - but in my back yard, I currently think this is slim.

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18 minutes ago, shotski said:

Meto wouldn't forecast snow that far in advance, especially a marginal event like early next week. Best to check the forecast on Sunday as things can and will change. 

They didn't forecast rain either. The front on Monday is expected to stall way out west. 

As much as I hope their wrong, I'm afraid I believe the BBC/MET over an Arpege model. 

I'm with Steve M over on the MOD thread. Another FEB 96 event where the front stalled west of London. 

 

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There is still a lot of uncertainty at the models this is going to be a difficult one to forecast even this close in 

 

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2 hours ago, Southender said:

If the ARPEGE comes off and delivers 10-15cm of snow over our Region Mon into Tues, I will dive naked into the Thames off Southend Pier :rofl:

I will back you on that!!!

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2 hours ago, Southender said:

If the ARPEGE comes off and delivers 10-15cm of snow over our Region Mon into Tues, I will dive naked into the Thames off Southend Pier :rofl:

Absolutely no chance IMO .. If there was even a remote chance MET/BBC would of at least touched on this by now being 2/3 days away. With no solid support you'd be a fool to believe that.... But for fun... Of course! 

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I think there shall be  snow in the SE on monday but nowhere near 10-15cm's; maybe 2-3

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23 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

I think there shall be  snow in the SE on monday but nowhere near 10-15cm's; maybe 2-3

oi oi !!

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8 hours ago, Surrey said:

Awww! Sorry here ya go :p

Front moving in from the west.. Typical battleground where it bumps into cold air 

arpege-1-77-0.png?15-05

arpege-1-82-0.png?15-05

 

Again South coast.. perhaps marginal 

 

 

nice! i'll keep my fingers crossed :-)

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4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

oi oi !!

Is that a ramp from Steve ;-)

Well it's cold enough to snow pity there's no precipitation those showers did indeed catch a cold. I would most certainly not say no chance Ben, Monday is still up for the taking? 

With it being so unusually volatile in short range....

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32 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Absolutely no chance IMO .. If there was even a remote chance MET/BBC would of at least touched on this by now being 2/3 days away. With no solid support you'd be a fool to believe that.... But for fun... Of course! 

The Met/BBC did touch upon it in their forecast following the BBC lunchtime news today. The presenter (Matt?) actually showed graphics of hurricane Alex and the Jet Stream and said it was causing havoc with their models as it moved North and "introduced lots of warmth & moisture into the Jet Stream". He went on to talk about Monday and said something along the lines of "keep tuned for updates". Didn't see this evening's forecast on the telly, but the video on the BBC website tonight (updated 18.02) finishes by saying "disruptive snow possible".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

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9 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

The Met/BBC did touch upon it in their forecast following the BBC lunchtime news today. The presenter (Matt?) actually showed graphics of hurricane Alex and the Jet Stream and said it was causing havoc with their models as it moved North and "introduced lots of warmth & moisture into the Jet Stream". He went on to talk about Monday and said something along the lines of "keep tuned for updates". Didn't see this evening's forecast on the telly, but the video on the BBC website tonight (updated 18.02) finishes by saying "disruptive snow possible".

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/forecast-video/21416743

Oh I'm with you on that. Disruptive snow is an absolute possibility, but not in our patch. That front could give Somerset etc a pounding. History tells me that Atlantic fronts have a job on their hands reaching our area with a fairly strong high pressure up against it.. Unless it's a strong Atlantic low/ undercut battle then we usually see a result. 

Im also referring to the ludicrous post of 15cm... As if... 

 

 

Edited by Ben Lewis

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Just saw BBC S.E. weather forecast and it showed fronts moving through Monday/Tuesday and all rain.....dangerous assumption surely  

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2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Oh I'm with you on that. Disruptive snow is an absolute possibility, but not in our patch. That front could give Somerset etc a pounding. History tells me that Atlantic fronts have a job on their hands reaching our area with a fairly strong high pressure up against it.. Unless it's a strong Atlantic low/ undercut battle then we usually see a result. 

Im also referring to the ludicrous post of 15cm... As if... 

Fair point - they didn't mention where!! The Met are the world's best at cleverly sitting on the fence until they're sure!

Anyway, it's a tenuous link to allow me to post these pics, but would you like to see the snowfall that happened in Germany when the front that gave us the snowfall yesterday (that struggled to settle) finally reached them? Enough to make you cry!!! The town is called Freudenstadt in the Black Forest.....

 

BF1.jpg

BF2.jpg

BF3.jpg

BF4.jpg

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13 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

Fair point - they didn't mention where!! The Met are the world's best at cleverly sitting on the fence until they're sure!

Anyway, it's a tenuous link to allow me to post these pics, but would you like to see the snowfall that happened in Germany when the front that gave us the snowfall yesterday (that struggled to settle) finally reached them? Enough to make you cry!!! The town is called Freudenstadt in the Black Forest.....

 

BF1.jpg

BF2.jpg

BF3.jpg

BF4.jpg

Crikey... We really do live in the worst place across the northern hemisphere for snow. Even when we do get ripe conditions for snow it's a pulling teeth scenario to even see a flake before the onslaught of the Atlantic muck moves in! 

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Ahhhh continental snowfall at its best. We have never had anything even close to that since, mmm, 1963 was it..... er no, maybe 1947!:cc_confused::wallbash:

 

It snows like that all over Europe quite regularly of course, including Italy, The Balkans even Greece and Turkey. When we get an inch that settles everything grinds to a halt, funny really.

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MetO 5-dayer and Sunday forecast for me.

This is as excited as I've been for three years and I know it'll disappear but la-la-la-la-la-I'm-not-listening :D 

 

_20160115_214001.JPG

_20160115_214014.JPG

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11 minutes ago, snowray said:

Ahhhh continental snowfall at its best. We have never had anything even close to that since, mmm, 1963 was it..... er no, maybe 1947!:cc_confused::wallbash:

 

It snows like that all over Europe quite regularly of course, including Italy, The Balkans even Greece and Turkey. When we get an inch that settles everything grinds to a halt, funny really.

I know.. And they get hot summers as well. 

Oh what it must be like to live in a country with proper seasons. 

 

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snow to rain Is the worst.

one minute your happy then you see it all washing away.

if that's what Monday might bring I think id rather it didn't bother lol

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With all the midday data and ensembles in now... we may miss out on the first band of snow next week (Monday/Tues) but likely catch a heavier band, which should reach East Anglia and the South East on Wednesday.

MOGREPS: Only 30% of members take the first band of rain/sleet/snow EAST of the MERIDIAN by 00Z Tuesday (So most likely we stay dry and cold in this region)

A higher percentage (65-70%) bring heavy, disruptive snowfalll eastwards on Wednesday and into Thursday - this then grinds to a halt over East Coast and moves back South-Westwards (yes, South-Westwards) and fizzles out.

Then next weekend, another snowfest before the high gets pushed away into Eastern Europe

9uyekj.jpg

I'll try and pop in again tomorrow night to give a update, but not on-duty so can't access all the models from home.

Edited by essexweather

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Wow Steve is positive, best go polar and say tbh no chance of a snow event total downgrade.

...No honestly, close but no cigar this time! Slips way past to our West,not enough coldness total downgrade, no point ramping

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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Last post before I head home, 18Z high-res from Exeter increases risk of some snow for Western parts of our region Sunday morning:

fnqv6d.gif

There is still great uncertainty on the track of this area of sleet and snow with the possibility it may not even exist on subsequent runs.

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2 hours ago, Nemesis said:

Just saw BBC S.E. weather forecast and it showed fronts moving through Monday/Tuesday and all rain.....dangerous assumption surely  

It is not an assumption it is based on probability & factor in the uncertainty forecaster mayhem if anything precip is more likely to be snow to the E.

Well interestingly E4 12Z has wintriness moving NW > SE in early hours of Sunday weakening as it does. The GFS on the other takes it to the West Country, which is quite frankly odd.

image.thumb.gif.d0f1c2372a0dadaaa8cfc080image.thumb.gif.53b026daa2a0a180e7f6c4ed

 

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1 hour ago, essexweather said:

With all the midday data and ensembles in now... we may miss out on the first band of snow next week (Monday/Tues) but likely catch a heavier band, which should reach East Anglia and the South East on Wednesday.

MOGREPS: Only 30% of members take the first band of rain/sleet/snow EAST of the MERIDIAN by 00Z Tuesday (So most likely we stay dry and cold in this region)

A higher percentage (65-70%) bring heavy, disruptive snowfalll eastwards on Wednesday and into Thursday - this then grinds to a halt over East Coast and moves back South-Westwards (yes, South-Westwards) and fizzles out.

Then next weekend, another snowfest before the high gets pushed away into Eastern Europe

9uyekj.jpg

I'll try and pop in again tomorrow night to give a update, but not on-duty so can't access all the models from home.

Wow, seriously? Great call if so :hi:

Edited by Kent Blizzard

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E4 has updated with the following interesting ...!

Wet bulb seems a little on high side more so to the W this looks to be the foe awkward for forecasters and I cannot believe it has not been picked up yet?

The rest of the parameters are OK could even settle?...much uncertainty 

image.thumb.gif.0e4677e9bbdb43bd09d712dfimage.thumb.gif.116ecf1e22c20a131078f4a6

image.thumb.gif.ab48e1f2fcc05fea8707f445image.thumb.gif.2a373232c233a4638c167fb4

Edited by Earnest Easterly*

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Bank la ARPEGE!!!!! C'est fantastique 

adds some meat to the bones considering it is a high res model 

A lot of us would be happy aside from EA however I do not see it ending up like below

Enough from me, night folks :D

image.thumb.png.0d662daab1ec2bb9d4bd07c5image.thumb.png.1cad64119ad74c483041726cimage.thumb.png.1c453f33041cdd1a8d0b4b68

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