South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[steveinsussex]

2-5 cm would be amazing but the extreme version; IMO more likely a dusting, maybe up to 2CM

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Just for fun this is how I see it  

Best case scenario I'm a tad anxious about the timing the darker depths of the night the better for settling snow, the eastern extent may be too great but by looking at the radar, that is what I'm feeling with precip currently over Scotland & NW England, I sense it will fall wet and yucky west of Oxford as the 850hPa temps are a little high. Critique if you'd like but I've been rather close in past events, I'm totally not with the Met Office view of things! 

Taking bets please!

Good idea I would say based on current radar 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I need beer..

[Ben Lewis]

Meto update for London and SE .... "outbreaks of snow, mainly the north and west of the region" 

BBC seem to show heaviest ppn towards NW London before it fizzles out. They also show rain south of London which is odd. 

I recon NW London, South Hertfordshire round to Buckinghamshire could be the sweet spot. 

[The Bevmeister]

Norfolk= bugger all once again!!  Northerlies never work for us but Easterlies work for everyone.  Not fair!!!   

Edited January 16, 2016 by The Bevmeister

[SxK]

Core of Front looks a good 150miles east of model projections to me. Both GFS and Euro4 have heaviest precip over Irish Sea at 3pm. Radar clear shows this much further east. 

Those saying they are too far east might get a nice surprise. 

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Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Il go for a snow funnel creating over London at 11pm lasting 12 hours....blizzard conditions...odds please?

2/1000000000000 

[Don]

4 minutes ago, SxK said:

Core of Front looks a good 150miles east of model projections to me. Both GFS and Euro4 have heaviest precip over Irish Sea at 3pm. Radar clear shows this much further east. 

Those saying they are too far east might get a nice surprise. 

Isn't there a risk with it being further east will make it more marginal, though?

EDIT - Latest forecast on BBC News does show the band of snow move through the London area through the early hours, so yes, perhaps more people will join in the fun!

Edited January 16, 2016 by Don

[Snoopie42]

5 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I need beer..

I'm just going to get some! 

[Blessed Weather]

Highest number of members I've seen on this thread since I joined you lovely people a year or so ago! Is there something brewing?

[paget]

Just now, Snoopie42 said:

I'm just going to get some! 

Is it to early for wine? Don't want to peak too soon! 

[paget]

Temps dropping fast now! In Farnham 

[Ben Lewis]

Very latest BBC forecast with Helen Willets  - already has the snow graphics further east.. 

By 8pm it's moving into Buckinghamshire/Hertfordshire/ Bedfordshire 

she said "Home Counties and London = 1/2cm"

COME ON ....

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[Snoopie42]

2 minutes ago, paget said:

Is it to early for wine? Don't want to peak too soon! 

Never too early, especially on rare occasions like this! Go for it I say!

[Hammer]

Earnest here is how I see it. I think Oxford good location.

[snowking]

Indeed latest BBC forecast graphics (fed by either Euro4 or UKV from memory) certainly a little further east of the current Met Office warning zone. I guess it'll be a case of reviewing latest WV and Radar imagery vs model forecasts to assess the most likely scenario and then update if necessary.

A word of warning though - the approaching front is a warm front and therefore we are likely to see a bit of a mixture of rain/sleet/snow overall. Dew Points look okay currently but even west of the M5 already Dew Points are the wrong side of marginal.

Hopefully with some nocturnal cooling we should be in a good position later for some fun and games, but anyone expecting much more than a CM or two may end up a little disappointed.

Still my interest is more into February for this season, so plenty more chances to come yet.

SK

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by snowking

[snow freak]

we tend to miss marginal events like these in Northants so i am praying that the predictions for the northern part of the east midlands to be the sweet spot. will let you know how things pan out later, fingers crossed.

[Hammer]

5 minutes ago, Hammer said:

Earnest here is how I see it. I think Oxford good location.

Earnest, your way to East IMO. But as you say just for fun.

Reckon west of Peterborough down to Hastings is my line for falling snow. Anything East of that line unlikely. Albeit this based on data from this morning.

 

 

[HammerJack]

10 minutes ago, Snoopie42 said:

I'm just going to get some! 

I've got mind.... Ha

[Ben Lewis]

Gritter just gone up my road. Last time that happened at 3:30pm in the afternoon was back in March 2013 

[snowking]

Indeed new high-resolution modelling coming in now. The ultra hi-res AROME model (another Meteo France product I believe) edging things further Eastwards on the 12z to cover much of the London area:

With the potential for up to 4-5cm to the West of London (probably unlikely, just the ratio set a little high given it's water equivalent).

SK

 

 

[pegg24]

8 minutes ago, snow freak said:

we tend to miss marginal events like these in Northants so i am praying that the predictions for the northern part of the east midlands to be the sweet spot. will let you know how things pan out later, fingers crossed.

I have my fingers crossed always think northamptonshire strange place we can miss out a lot. But we can also get some good dumping s of snow when others dont

[Ben Lewis]

4 minutes ago, snowking said:

Indeed new high-resolution modelling coming in now. The ultra hi-res AROME model (another Meteo France product I believe) edging things further Eastwards on the 12z to cover much of the London area:

With the potential for up to 4-5cm to the West of London (probably unlikely, just the ratio set a little high given it's water equivalent).

SK

 

 

SK, am I right in thinking even west Essex come into play there? 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just bought the net weather v6 radar again well worth it trust me!

[Mark wheeler]

2 minutes ago, snowking said:

Indeed new high-resolution modelling coming in now. The ultra hi-res AROME model (another Meteo France product I believe) edging things further Eastwards on the 12z to cover much of the London area:

With the potential for up to 4-5cm to the West of London (probably unlikely, just the ratio set a little high given it's water equivalent).

SK

 

 

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