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Captain Shortwave

South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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Right, a new thread for the new year.

Usual rules apply, try to keep the discussion towards the weather. Hopefully we will see an improvement in our fortunes as the month progresses.

Enjoy.

jacked-snowman-303x286.jpg

I think he will be needed given our current position :p

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So I might as well do a review of December in terms of my seasonal forecast, no point trying to sugar coat where it went wrong I guess.

So this was the part for December

Quote

December

I think December will offer quite a variety of weather conditions though true cold weather looks unlikely given the background signals. The month will begin and enter on an unsettled and possibly stormy note, but there is evidence that we could see more settled conditions, especially from the second week onward to around the 15th-20th. This could lower the overall CET for December with frost and freezing fog a possibility.

Rainfall - Near to or slightly below normal for the region (70-100% of the average)

Temperature - Near to or slightly above average (0-1C compared to the 61-90 average or between 4.7 and 5.7C)

Sunshine - Near to or slightly below average but this is highly dependent on the precise surface conditions.

In my thoughts whilst I thought that the heights over Europe would play the dominant role, I did think we would see a greater variety of weather conditions to what we actually saw. A mix of unsettled west/south westerlies mixed with more anticyclonic conditions. In the end we saw probably one of the most south to south westerly dominated months in history. Conditions for our part of the world were more mixed than generally unsettled with many frontal systems simply no having any impact on our part of the world as they tended to stall over the north west for prolonged periods as heights over Europe acted as a buffer to these systems despite the mobile pattern occurring further north.

So in terms of rainfall, my prediction was actually spot on, the metoffice anomaly showing near to slightly below normal rainfall.

Embedded image permalink

 

temperature however was a big fail given the sheer persistence of south westerly winds

Embedded image permalink

 

The metoffice might need to up their anomaly scale. 

The final CET figure for this month was 9.7C, a whole 5 degrees above normal. This not only beats the previous December record by a country mile but was milder than November (9.5C) which in itself was one of the mildest Novembers ever recorded and beats the mildest March on  record (9.2C). In terms of mildness this was beyond extreme and a feat I personally don't think we will see in a long long time. Fair to say everyone's temperature forecasts went but on this one.

Sunshine amounts haven't been confirmed but I suspect a duller than average month overall, there were sunnier days mixed in which would help with the final figure.

I will post a more in depth January discussion later with perhaps some amendments to the forecast.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave
altered sunshine amount comment

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"Slightly duller"?  I must live in a very unusual part of the region, then!  We went days on end, over a weekl at least once, with no sun at all. 

Regarding your seasonal forecast, Matt, I don't think anyone could have predicted how mild December turned-out to be.

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1 hour ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

"Slightly duller"?  I must live in a very unusual part of the region, then!  We went days on end, over a weekl at least once, with no sun at all. 

Regarding your seasonal forecast, Matt, I don't think anyone could have predicted how mild December turned-out to be.

The difficulty comes from the issue that for December the bar fir sunshine amounts is very low. I have changed the statement to simply duller than average now as it is probably correct. The Metoffice will probably have a detailed summary up in a few days so this can be confirmed.

December has been near enough the perfect storm of mildness, though at least we escaped the monstrous rainfall totals experienced across northern England and many parts of Scotland.

Edit - found this (Up to the 29th, we might get a slight improvement given the sunny new years eve)

Embedded image permalink

Very dull across southern counties, not as dull across east Anglia though still below average.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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So then January

Previous forecast made on the 26th of November.

Quote

January

I suspect that a westerly regime will dominate this month, there are signs of a change to a colder pattern triggered by an SSW, but I suspect that this will occur very late in the month. So your typical fairly mild and wet set up will occur here tough heights over Europe might help to reduce rainfall totals a little.

Rainfall - Slightly above normal (110-130% of the seasonal norm).

Temperature - (1-2C above average)

Sunshine - Near normal but is dependent on the composition of air masses we see during the month, cloud slack spells look unlikely.

 

So at this point and given our starting position model output wise, actually this doesn't look too bad. But lets try and do some more in depth stuff here.

Week 1 - The first week of January will probably end up fairly wet with temperatures close to normal. In fact it could become quite chilly at times as low pressure tracks slowly across southern England. Wintry precipitation looks unlikely though, but there should be some frosts where skies clear.

Corresponding charts from the GFS

gfs-0-78.png?6gfs-0-102.png?6gfs-0-126.png?6

 

Week 2 - This week looks to be the worst going by the current model output. Any heights to our north and east will wane with a strong Atlantic jet pushing through across the south of the country, this puts many areas at risk of some very wet and windy conditions, potentially stormy at times. Some example, charts again.

gfs-0-150.png?6gfs-0-174.png?6

The 7th/8th show potential across all of the models for some kind of big wind event.

Temperatures will rise to above normal in this period, though a more normal kind of mild (1-2 degrees above normal with a lot of this coming from mild nights).

 

Week 3 - This is where things should improve somewhat, though the detail is a little sketchy. Pressure will tend to record to our south/south west with above normal heights to our north, so a slackening of conditions is likely with the risk of something colder developing. Again this could come from a variety of solutions. The anomaly forecasts do suggest a lessening of low heights with a weak anomaly stretching up from the Azores northwards towards Greenland. This should hopefully set up a drier spell with cooler temperatures. No guarantees on any true wintriness though.

End of the month - At this range the long rangers are not in agreement with some interesting background signals. Again these background signals do suggest another big attack on the tropospheric vortex which could cause a pattern change at the end of the month (See Glacier Point's thoughts on the model thread). This could show some promise in the coming weeks in terms of more interesting model output.

 

So overall here is how I see this month panning out.

  • The first half of the month will be wet or very wet, temperatures near normal for week one but rising in week 2.
  • A drier second half the month with a chance of cooler conditions developing.

Temperature - Between 0.5 and 1.5 degrees above the seasonal average.

Rainfall - 120-150% of the average. Most of this falling in the first half.

Sunshine amounts - Near normal - a dull first half and a sunnier second half.

 

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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Personally feel you won't be too far away with that forecast for January - I'm going to do my calculations for December in a minute and soon will post it. Cheers and Happy New Year everyone!

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Nice to have a new thread to welcome in 2016. Good thoughts CS.

Amanda would not like this windstorm showing on the 7th.

image.thumb.png.063c0c70524ae4816190ee9c

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A very happy & healthy New Year to everyone. Nice to see a white lawn and frozen bird bath this morning - at least it looked and felt more like January. It's turned very dull now and the temp has crept up to 7.1C. I'm sat watching the New Year's Day ski jumping from Garmisch-Partenkirchen and it's a sorry looking winter scene there. They must have lorried in snow for the jump itself, as the surrounding fields and mountains are green.

Thank you for the analysis and forecasts above Captain. I guess we may have another few weeks to wait before any noteable cold & snowy weather. I hope Feb turns out to be one for the records books (and not the mild variety!!).

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I'm very worried are we going to get strong winds in the south east now? Is the storm on the 7th in the north? 

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Just watched the bbc ten day and they are saying the jet stream is splitting so therefore making it weaker surely that's good news 

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9 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

I'm very worried are we going to get strong winds in the south east now? Is the storm on the 7th in the north? 

yes    7   could  be big  one   if the  models are  right

 

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Will it be in the north though? Bbc weather are saying quietening down next week 

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54 minutes ago, amanda2012 said:

Will it be in the north though? Bbc weather are saying quietening down next week 

Severe gales continuing being shown on GFS 12z for the 7th, this run shows gust between 80-90mph in the Dover Strait sustained winds of 60mph in the extreme Kent tip this would do a lot of damage - a red warning would be warranted for extreme SE. The north is spared, this is thanks to the rampant Jet relaxing S, on a collision course to our region

I think it is highly likely next week our region will experience a notable storm, I'm afraid to break it to you @amanda2012 it is better to know than not! 

image.thumb.png.8db5645ba8f835d20b71b7f3image.thumb.png.78a99318e7fd6c77c2cc916dimage.thumb.png.99ec4245efed181a5201f0e9image.thumb.png.89a9bbec6204d67cc6ebf609

Edited by Daniel*

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Hmm if this continues then the southeast will be naming a storm in a couple of days. It is concerning that all of the big 3 have this storm. Let's hope it goes away or if it doesn't then its downgraded certainly know upgrade. Need to inject some excitement in the weather but not at the exchange of danger

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29 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Hmm if this continues then the southeast will be naming a storm in a couple of days. It is concerning that all of the big 3 have this storm. Let's hope it goes away or if it doesn't then its downgraded certainly know upgrade. Need to inject some excitement in the weather but not at the exchange of danger

I only focused up to T+144 but there's barrage of windstorms on the following dates: 7th, 8th, lesser extent 9th, and quite a fierce one running from the 10th-11th.

A very turbulent, wet start to January is on the way. Exciting as a weather enthusiast but this is tempered by the destruction these things can do. 

Edited by Daniel*

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As mentioned previously the jet is going further south and with it the storms, looks very stormy in the next few weeks

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I'll admit, I've been getting a bit confused with the storm forecasts - I haven't kept up as much as I'd like so I keep seeing some outputs suggesting storms barrelling into NI/the NW/ Scotland, and others suggesting the SE will get hit. I've clearly missed something along the line :) Any clarification appreciated.

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9 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

I'll admit, I've been getting a bit confused with the storm forecasts - I haven't kept up as much as I'd like so I keep seeing some outputs suggesting storms barrelling into NI/the NW/ Scotland, and others suggesting the SE will get hit. I've clearly missed something along the line :) Any clarification appreciated.

Indeed some lows going north to its all to do with the position of the jet stream. The jet looks to move further south, so this manivuers the lows further south. The last few runs coming out with diffrent options detail we come clearer as we move into the week

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8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Indeed some lows going north to its all to do with the position of the jet stream. The jet looks to move further south, so this manivuers the lows further south. The last few runs coming out with diffrent options detail we come clearer as we move into the week

OK great, maybe I wasn't missing that much after all :) Thanks for the clarification.

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1 hour ago, amanda2012 said:

Will it be as bad as 87 storm 

As Surrey says above, we'll need to get much closer to this event to be able to pin down the detail. At the moment it's got the potential. The '87 storm had a low pressure centre of 951mb (in the English Channel), currently GFS showing 956mb (just off Norfolk). '87 had a max gust of 115mph in West Sussex, GFS currently showing a narrow area of +90mph winds moving along the Channel and clipping Kent (see Daniels charts above).

But a key feature of '87 was the development of a 'sting jet' that concentrated winds in a narrow band (they often don't exceed 30 miles across). There's a simple explanation of the '87 'sting jet' on the Met Office website: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/2/p/Sting_Jet_Flyer.PDF

So definitely a potential storm that needs watching as we get nearer the event. Like many of us on here I love a weather 'event', but not one that causes destruction on the scale of '87.

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Burnham On Crouch, Essex:

December 2015 ave temp: 10.85c some 5.3c above average!

Max day: 14.9c  Min day: 9.5c  Max night: 13.5c  Min Night:  4.1c

Frosts: NONE  -  Rainfall: 52mm (slightly below average)

Warmest ever winter month I've recorded. (since 1983) and no doubt will stand as a record going back many years.

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its   more  south  it dont look very pleasant  at  the  moment

gens-16-1-126.png

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Sure is a bit of a beast of a  feature and there is not just one...

7th Jan

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

8th Jan

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

10th Jan

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

Must stress these charts won't look like this tonight let alone when we come to the day.. For instances I was watching something develop tomorrow but that has now been completely dropped for 3-4 days now.

 

Why a southern shift in storms?

The GFS for a few weeks now has been wanting to shift the jet stream further south from about mid December it picked up on it put pushed it back into the new year (now)

Netweather GFS Image

And here is the fuel for the storms.. A very big contrast of temps between arctic cold air to the north and more moist warmer air to the south. When the two collide and where is when we see storms spawning from.

Netweather GFS Image

 

How long does it look like this could last?

Not sure right out in F.I the GFS STILL has the jet further south but MUCH weaker

Netweather GFS Image

 

 

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hi everyone

i am looking at several sources and the winspeed on the 8th will be blowy but nothing like the october storms  that was a sting jet which correct me if  i am wrong we are not seeing at the moment  i mean that has windspeeds at over a 100mph which is what caused it

 

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