Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[Daniel*]

27 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ukmo and Jma playing catch up as per usual. I find they are often 24hrs behind the game, especially at the 144hr timeframe.

Disagree I think GFS is playing catch up, I think the run should be disregarded. Regarding the Alaskan ridge extending towards pole the UKMO & ECM are singing from the same hymn sheet whereas GFS is not - only T+144! Which is where FI is and yet folk are already kicking and screaming will they ever learn? Typo, blame the auto-correct on this silly iPad. 

GFS

UKMO

ECM

Edited January 5, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[mountain shadow]

Does anyone have the decline Nino Phase 1MJO composite? 

I think I saw it a few days ago but cannot locate. 

Ta.

[phil nw.]

Really little has changed since last evening as i don't recall any Greenland high being modeled although it was touted.The onsetset of the cold next week is being brought by some transient Atlantic ridging which is still on track.

We don't require much amplification to get the cold air as deep cold with uppers from -8c continue to lie around the n.isles through much of the next week.This has never been shown to be more than a 3 day northerly before pressure starts to rise from the west so no surprises there but understandable disappointment that it's not longer.

If we compare the 12z GEFs for the 13th Jan from the 12z run yesterday to todays we see the similarity.

no great Arctic outbreak was looking likely as i alluded to last night but colder yes.No great shakes for widespread snow but we didn't really see any forecasted from this current setup.Probably some frosts and surface cold from the high after the northerly as we still remain on the cooler side of the jet.

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Disagree I think GFS is playing catch up, I think the run should be disregarded. Regarding the Alaskan ridge extending towards pole the UKMO & ECM are singing from the same hymn sheet whereas GFS is not - only T+144! Which is where FI is and yet folk are already kicking and screaming will they ever learn? Blame the auto-correct.

GFS

UKMO

ECM

I've been model watching intensely for about 7 years. In that time I've never seen a progged Greenland high scenario downgrade and the upgrade once again.....NOT ONCE. Once wrongly orientated low heights, spoiler lows etc etc get picked up by the NWP (which WILL happen with the UKMO and JMA) it will not revert to what WAS showing. I think a lot of us on here are aware of that and hence the despondency in this scenario.

Edited January 5, 2016 by CreweCold

[ukpaul]

When in doubt look at the ensembles, if they trend the same as the op runs then there is some guarantee of the op being correct, if the solutions are diverse in one or both directions then they aren't. It's why they don't just run an operational and stop there.

No matter what an op run does, if the ensembles don't agree it's not yet happening (which is not to say it won't, but you can't bet on it)

[karlos1983]

How the GFS can be predicting the correct outcome all of a sudden is beyond me. I've seen 4 outputs from that model in the past 24 hours and guess what.... Each one of them has been completely different. fl imo is still +96, and the area of much interest is N America. When we see inter model minor changes upstream with each run, it's completely changing the view we see down stream over NW Europe later in the run(s). None of the models are covering themselves in glory right now, but out of all of them, the UKMO seems to me to be the most consistent with this "northerly" over the past few runs. Neither the GFS or the ECM have been, baring in mind the GFS runs output 4 times daily. Poor show but interesting nonetheless

cheers

karl 

[blizzard81]

11 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Disagree I think GFS is playing catch up, I think the run should be disregarded. Regarding the Alaskan ridge extending towards pole the UKMO & ECM are singing from the same hymn sheet whereas GFS is not - only T+144! Which is where FI is and yet folk are already kicking and screaming will they ever learn? Blame the auto-correct.

GFS

UKMO

ECM

If you look carefully off the us eastern seaboard, you will see that there is much less amplification on the gfs and ecm as opposed to the ukmo. As Nick Sussex pointed out weeks ago, I cannot recall an amplified 144hr ukmo chart that actually verifies when gfs and ecm don't agree.

Edited January 5, 2016 by blizzard81

[gottolovethisweather]

30 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

People looking at day 10 charts and saying long route to cold from there  What about before we get to day 10... Looks like the cold has arrived before day 10 to me and more importantly looking much drier for the flood affected regions... Cold days, frosty nights with snowfall possible - OK so the Thames isn't going to freeze over and there won't be 10 foot snow drifts, but are these charts not better than the ridiculously mild and extremely wet December just gone?  

 

Indeed, most importantly a drier pattern could be looking like a reasonable probability in about 8 to 10 days time, perhaps before. Moreover, as you say, the chill descends beforehand, especially on occasions when the wind backs around to the NW as the troughing overhead, tilts one way or tother. Heck, there is currently an Easterly bringing hill and some lower-level snow to Scotland as I type. It will be chilly (defined by me as a couple degrees below average) relatively speaking tomorrow where FOG struggles to clear, with Temps circa 4c to 8c at best. The 7th January as stated many times previously is another cool/cold day with widespread 850s within the region of -3 to -5 which at the extreme end would bring borderline snow-making potential again, should precipitation be around, however this seems unlikely. The deepest cold is modelled to be just out of reach of our Isles right now but the cold will build ever stronger from approximately the 11th January onwards. Air Temperatures by then would range from roughly 4c below average to possibly as much as 8c below average which for most parts of the UK would bring snow potential. The cool to cold weather stays with us throughout the GFS 12z FI timeframes from the 12th through to the 21st and on the ECM it should stick around until at least the 15th January which is the farthest out the operational run goes. COLD WEATHER IS SEEMINGLY ON ITS WAY! 

 

Just how cold, how much snow, how many frosts we all might get and how long it might last will not be answered for many days to come. Yesterday I gave the probabilities of deep cold weather coming as a 40 to 50% probability, I still remain cautious as there can often be a proverbial "fly in the ointment" for our little island but I'll up that prospect to 60% given the latest information I've seen around the place.

 

One last thing, some fantastic contributions from many a well-respected member over the last couple of days, keep em coming and whatever the weather please play nicely. 

Edited January 5, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[tight isobar]

^^^the gfs is a favourable tool out to 144hrs.

And has a tendency for trend spotting. 

However,  its mobile bias and misconceptions after the above timescale are notorious for elaborate misleading. .

The ecm data is ...and I'll stand by this...on exacting'more' measurable than the for mentioned (gfs) which has had an' upgrade in data infer.

The ecm "overall" is on both thermodynamics/evolution more precise. ....

BUT..With current immeasurable climatic/atmospheric, situ its inevitable the current maybe it will...maybe  it won't! 

And that the precise point of call for such divergence among the knowledgeable. ..that's what makes this ALL so addictive/interesting. ....

And thats without mentioning the crave for one weather type. ..

Cold/mild/snow..etc.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

As Nick Sussex pointed out weeks ago, I cannot recall an amplified 144hr ukmo chart that actually verifies when gfs and ecm don't agree.

I've personally never seen it happen

[Methuselah]

Well, EE, I don't agree with you either...IMO, all the models are forever adapting to whatever new data they receive. So, I guess, in that respect, the are all 'playing catch-up'?

[Liam J]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Most on here are looking for a prolonged cold spell, not transitory. The main reason for the despondency is because the ecm has has back tracked from yesterday when it was showing the best synoptics for a few years.

We're not looking at a prolonged cold spell but after December beggars can't be choosers, I'd gladly take the charts on offer after last month even though they aren't perfect... Some colder days with frosty nights and some of us may even see the white stuff falling, we've been waiting over a month for some colder weather and when we're finally looking at it on the NWP it isn't good enough! Lol... 

Perhaps some members had better relocate to somewhere within the Arctic Circle (currently minus 11 in Tromso) with the high expectations they have for winter in the UK, this is the UK, we live in a maritime climate and our prevailing wind is westerly.... So the odds are nearly always stacked against us but that also makes any prolonged cold spell all the more special  

 

 

[blizzard81]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've been model watching intensely for about 7 years. In that time I've never seen a progged Greenland high scenario downgrade and the upgrade once again.....NOT ONCE. Once wrongly orientated low heights, spoiler lows etc etc get picked up by the NWP (which WILL happen with the UKMO and JMA) it will not revert to what WAS showing. I think a lot of us on here are aware of that and hence the despondency in this scenario.

I can certainly vouch for that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

We're not looking at a prolonged cold spell but after December beggars can't be choosers, I'd gladly take the charts on offer after last month even though they aren't perfect... Some colder days with frosty nights and some of us may even see the white stuff falling, we've been waiting over a month for some colder weather and when we're finally looking at it on the NWP it isn't good enough! Lol... 

Perhaps some members had better relocate to somewhere within the Arctic Circle (currently minus 11 in Tromso) with the high expectations they have for winter in the UK, this is the UK, we live in a maritime climate and our prevailing wind is westerly.... So the odds are nearly always stacked against us but that also makes any prolonged cold spell all the more special  

 

 

And why is it not acceptable to want a cold spell longer than a couple of days in duration? Those -20 uppers shown to flood into NE USA- why shouldn't that be us. In reality there's minimal ocean between us and the pole (and what there is is often frozen over). Why do we always get the raw deal? At our latitude I don't think it's particularly unreasonable for people to want a decent freeze in winter....And don't tell me it's because we have the Atlantic next to us...back in December we had -25 uppers flooding well south of our latitude in the mid Atlantic so if it can happen there it can happen here!

[cyclonic happiness]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

We're not looking at a prolonged cold spell but after December beggars can't be choosers, I'd gladly take the charts on offer after last month even though they aren't perfect... Some colder days with frosty nights and some of us may even see the white stuff falling, we've been waiting over a month for some colder weather and when we're finally looking at it on the NWP it isn't good enough! Lol... 

Perhaps some members had better relocate to somewhere within the Arctic Circle (currently minus 11 in Tromso) with the high expectations they have for winter in the UK, this is the UK, we live in a maritime climate and our prevailing wind is westerly.... So the odds are nearly always stacked against us but that also makes any prolonged cold spell all the more special  

 

 

but 3 years without snow? Even here that's astonishing!

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And why is it not acceptable to want a cold spell longer than a couple of days in duration? Those -20 uppers shown to flood into NE USA- why shouldn't that be us. In reality there's minimal ocean between us and the pole (and what there is is often frozen over). Why do we always get the raw deal? At our latitude I don't think it's particularly unreasonable for people to want a decent freeze in winter....And don't tell me it's because we have the Atlantic next to us...back in December we had -25 uppers flooding well south of our latitude in the mid Atlantic so if it can happen there it can happen here!

I must admit, it does look like the UK is some sort of cold/snow deflector. Just look at the 850 temps in northern hemisphere mode on day 10 of ecm. Just about everywhere on our latitude goes into the freezer - apart from, yes you've guessed it - blessed blighty!

Edited January 5, 2016 by blizzard81

[snowice]

12 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

We're not looking at a prolonged cold spell but after December beggars can't be choosers, I'd gladly take the charts on offer after last month even though they aren't perfect... Some colder days with frosty nights and some of us may even see the white stuff falling, we've been waiting over a month for some colder weather and when we're finally looking at it on the NWP it isn't good enough! Lol... 

Perhaps some members had better relocate to somewhere within the Arctic Circle (currently minus 11 in Tromso) with the high expectations they have for winter in the UK, this is the UK, we live in a maritime climate and our prevailing wind is westerly.... So the odds are nearly always stacked against us but that also makes any prolonged cold spell all the more special  

 

 

After weeks of flooding mild mush all we want is Sub zero 

[winterof79]

42 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

People looking at day 10 charts and saying long route to cold from there  What about before we get to day 10... Looks like the cold has arrived before day 10 to me and more importantly looking much drier for the flood affected regions... Cold days, frosty nights with snowfall possible - OK so the Thames isn't going to freeze over and there won't be 10 foot snow drifts, but are these charts not better than the ridiculously mild and extremely wet December just gone?  

 

But but but .....surely that cannot be correct according to what I have read Its all doomed.Long waves short waves,spoilers.

Looking good as you correctly show.Enjoy the ride everyone

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I've been model watching intensely for about 7 years. In that time I've never seen a progged Greenland high scenario downgrade and the upgrade once again.....NOT ONCE. Once wrongly orientated low heights, spoiler lows etc etc get picked up by the NWP (which WILL happen with the UKMO and JMA) it will not revert to what WAS showing. I think a lot of us on here are aware of that and hence the despondency in this scenario.

I was not addressing that whatsoever...

it's just what seemed rather notable to me in the semi reliable time-frame. Clearly in that part of the world I explicitly specified GFS is trailing behind ECM/UKMO? Unless I'm blind....

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I must admit, it does look like the UK is some sort of cold/snow deflector. Just look at the 850 temps in northern hemisphere mode on day 10 of ecm. Just about everywhere on our latitude goes into the freezer - apart from, yes you've guessed it - blessed blighty!

Exactly...and I'd wager that no-one has a firm theory as to why this is. At our latitude there has to be a reasonable chance of any given winter producing -20 to -25 upper air from the N. If a given point in the mid N Atlantic, completely surrounded by ocean can achieve it relatively frequently then why can't the UK?

[Man With Beard]

NOAA 8-14 dayer tonight ... Atlantic ridge slightly closer than one would like to get a pure northerly - but it sticks two fingers up to the idea of a resurgent Greenland trough

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Exactly...and I'd wager that no-one has a firm theory as to why this is. At our latitude there has to be a reasonable chance of any given winter producing -20 to -25 upper air from the N. If a given point in the mid N Atlantic, completely surrounded by ocean can achieve it relatively frequently then why can't the UK?

The further East in an ocean though, the more moderation of temps but more importantly, more scope to fuel the Jetstream, our location isn't much further south than Siberia, if zonal winds completely reversed (ie, earth rotated the other way), we would get similar weather conditions.

[cyclonic happiness]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

I agree but were the size of Florida something Steve M bangs on about in his posts as to why this tiny island constantly misses the bullseye. NE USA has many snow misses just visit weatherwx   to see them moaning.

yes but not for 3 years!! 

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

NOAA 8-14 dayer tonight ... Atlantic ridge slightly closer than one would like to get a pure northerly - but it sticks two fingers up to the idea of a resurgent Greenland trough

Looks good to me...

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The further East in an ocean though, the more moderation of temps but more importantly, more scope to fuel the Jetstream, our location isn't much further south than Siberia, if zonal winds completely reversed (ie, earth rotated the other way), we would get similar weather conditions.

It doesn't explain the lack of potent N'ly periods though does it. You'd expect more periods of zonal but when we get a N'ly it's coming from nowhere near the Atlantic. My issue is why the mid N Atlantic can get -20 uppers to a far more S'ly latitude than the UK on a more regular basis. In years and years of weather history you'd expect us to hit it at least once or twice every 25-30 years at least.

Edited January 5, 2016 by CreweCold