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phil nw.

Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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12 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Tbf..its looking like an A☆

For mr Steve murr....

With interest @the Canadian lobe granted. ..but attention turned to the east format. ..going forward. 

lol Does that make-up for his previous 'Ungraded'? Steve?:D

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ECM for our part of the world.

144hrs. 

568c0df4e552a_144ecm..thumb.gif.91f5994f568c0e02a4c83_144temps..thumb.gif.72fc8c

168hrs.

168.ecm..thumb.gif.82379edd36957b686c66e568c0e1d7d5d0_168temps..thumb.gif.77044c

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The ECM playing table tennis with it chucking a lobe of the PV across Greenland to its mate near Svalbard at T168hrs.

Its a case of whether the high in the Atlantic can hold up as this ping pong takes place, with this transfer of PV lobes theres zero chance of the Arctic high edging further sw or the ridge getting further north.

I'm underwhelmed so far.

Add very now! I'd rather the GFS at least that could eject a shortwave se from Greenland, the ECM to be frank sucks this evening!

 

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At day 7 it's clear that the 'snow conducive' synoptics are transient in nature as HP can't get a foothold far enough N. That isn't to say we won't get a second bite BUT I distrust such scenarios - these episodes usually end with the window for snow being eroded from both sides with, in reality, little chance for the cold uppers and instability to get far enough S.

ECH1-168.GIF?05-0

 

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the differences over the polar field re the chunks of vortex drifting around are significant run to run and model to model. as the arctic high is modelled differently on each run, so the movement of these chunks is aswell. the 00z run had a chunk of discarded scandi vortex displaced back to the Canadian side by day 7. the 12z hangs this back around svaalbard at the same time, blocked by the arctic ridge. if this cannot get across to Canada then the Canadian vortex will look a lot weaker by day 10 than it did on the 00z run.  this is all very relevant re what follows the initial atlantic amplification and how much pressure the atlantic high will come under in week 2.

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM playing table tennis with it chucking a lobe of the PV across Greenland to its mate near Svalbard at T168hrs.

Its a case of whether the high in the Atlantic can hold up as this ping pong takes place, with this transfer of PV lobes theres zero chance of the Arctic high edging further sw or the ridge getting further north.

I'm underwhelmed so far.

Indeed, cold source being cut off before it has any chance to establish

ECH1-192.GIF?05-0

A few wintry showers on windward coasts but apart from that.....

Will be interesting to see if it shows another bite towards day 10

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And fair play to the GFS, it hasn't been on a decent ridge scenario at all.

So, a 24-48 hour colder spell. What will follow though?

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One thing it looks like it will become alot dryer which is well needed up here in the North west.:)

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Reminding me off the brief cold snap we had in November which at least produced Snow. Sadly so far off in FI land I'm not getting excited. This week was originally supposed to be wintry and that didn't happen bar Scotland.

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1 minute ago, booferking said:

One thing it looks like it will become alot dryer which is well needed up here in the North west.:)

May see that round thing called the sun as well.

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ECM1-168.GIF?05-0

Toppler, but not complaining, even my location can see snow off a toppler! -8 uppers on 13 Jan (day after this) most importantly looks drier, and maybe sunshine!

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192hrs. Cold flow from the North, Drier thereafter as high starts to move in. Cold uppers though at 192hrs. 

568c1068d1e4d_192hrs.press.thumb.gif.b25 192hrs...thumb.gif.ce7f7cdfa8f958a79fa5e

216hrs.

Coldest air to the NE. Less cold air from West, pressure building from West as Atlantic high closerby.

568c10bc35815_216hrshigh.thumb.gif.50ac3 216hrs..thumb.gif.6c30e16b83baeebbf8c631

 

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Anyway. ..if the cross polar flow.. (modeled)..continues split..then it's a high "5" all round..

Then the cold dispensers' and its roulette. ..whom get the ace card□

ECH1-192.gif

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2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

ECM1-168.GIF?05-0

Toppler, but not complaining, even my location can see snow off a toppler! -8 uppers on 13 Jan (day after this) most importantly looks drier, and maybe sunshine!

It's a sinker more than a toppler, so slightly better at holding onto the colder air.

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Hopeless...

ECH1-216.GIF?05-0

What we don't want to see is that high sheared off into Europe with a net easterly movement of the pattern....I think Nick S would be banging his head against the wall! It's a longish way to cold from the day 9 ECM chart as the main vortex resides where we don't want it! Eats away at more valuable winter time!

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ECM short term gain, long term pain potentially, not the best set up towards the ECM if cold spell potential anyway. :angry:

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Just now, Greenland1080 said:

The only hope is if that high builds NNE into a Scandi high....I won't hold my breath.

It's a possibility but doesn't fit with the general consensus of a mean Scandi trough setting up as we head through January. The ECM 12z is poor and that's the bottom line.

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Well looks very much like a 48 hour cold snap next week before the westerlys move in once again. Good call s. Murr looks along way to any substantial cold spell on the models tonight. Looks like the pv is setting up were we don't want it. Hopefully glacier point is onto something with his predictions but I won't hold my breath. 

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hopeless...

ECH1-216.GIF?05-0

What we don't want to see is that high sheared off into Europe with a net easterly movement of the pattern....I think Nick S would be banging his head against the wall! It's a longish way to cold from the day 9 ECM chart as the main vortex resides where we don't want it! Eats away at more valuable winter time!

Think we get the picture Crewe.Personally I'm not looking further than 5 days.As GP said its fruitless with the change taking place high up.

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECH1-144.gif

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8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Hopeless...

ECH1-216.GIF?05-0

What we don't want to see is that high sheared off into Europe with a net easterly movement of the pattern....I think Nick S would be banging his head against the wall! It's a longish way to cold from the day 9 ECM chart as the main vortex resides where we don't want it! Eats away at more valuable winter time!

It's a day 9 chart though, so unlikely to verify as such. I still think we are a long way off knowing how this will pan out after the cold next week, however it ends up. These runs have had the mood go up and down like a yo-yo, it's as if people forget the previous run or other models. Trends are trends yes, but too early to write it off yet.

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2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well looks very much like a 48 hour cold snap next week before the westerlys move in once again. Good call s. Murr looks along way to any substantial cold spell on the models tonight. Looks like the pv is setting up were we don't want it. Hopefully glacier point is onto something with his predictions but I won't hold my breath. 

please post something showing a westerly air stream as I can't see that this afternoon.Thanks

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Just now, CreweCold said:

It's a possibility but doesn't fit with the general consensus of a mean Scandi trough setting up as we head through January. The ECM 12z is poor and that's the bottom line.

The 12z ecm is even worse than this morning's run. I just can't believe Canada and the US get the mega spoils again! That's been the unavoidable trend of the last 3 or 4 years now. The arctic high never seems to deliver those wintry goods to these shores. The cross polar flow is yet again poorly orientated to draw that bitter cold towards us.

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