Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

phil nw.

Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

Recommended Posts

gfsnh-0-240.png?12

 

Gfs has another go in deep fi of reinvigorating the arctic high.. Overall we can firmly say a change is on the way whether it falls for us this time is yet to be seen. Await the ecm with interest, will it follow ukmo, gem or gfs? place your bets...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Reload from the gfs!,did ecm do this yesterday evening

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.ea33b82eaef90224be

yes it did,although the gfs is a bit less amplified

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.f1998caed63a724e6

 

Beat me to it ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you want to see snow, bet on the UKMO, a quicker evolution to the cold snap. GFS , painfully slow to feed in the cold air and then brings in a cut off scenario. I would say looking at the UKMO latest run, probably more than a 48 hour cold snap for next week.

 C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

A Murr style three wave pattern.

GP said he liked GEM for its Arctic modelling. GEM sometimes gives indications to the ECM

 

we might yet see a greenland high from the ECM then. at day 7...  wouldn't that be ironic....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pincher incrouch' heights. .inthe ever "for mentioned" Greenland" part!...and without getting whirled into the agree/non agree..

This again isn't a done del either way!..and linkage to thw polar high via any northern hemispherical route is not set in stone......if at all!!!

ECH1-240.GIF.thumb.png.f1998caed63a724e6676a3333f5adb76.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd bank UKMO.

This pesky lobe of polar vortex over Quebec area how typical! seems to be tampering WAA from even getting into Greenland.

image.thumb.png.68dd3c49c6160adc80d4fe14

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

could this be the hints of the 1983 resemblance Tamara was talking about?....

gfsnh-0-360.png?12

EDIT: Perhaps not. back to my corner......

gfsnh-0-384.png?12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The gfs having three bites at the cherry through it's entire run,not bad...

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.51fb8dffec09ef4c6egfsnh-0-264.thumb.png.3d4126cdc16c4f103bgfsnh-0-360.thumb.png.c38b2e7641c5dd6c13

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

lol... and its gone. the atlantic ridge is even struggling on this run but the arctic high is stretching itself across the pole this time.

gfsnh-0-216.png

At 216 hours..... Aren't you looking a bit too far ahead there given everything that's been said about how the models are handling the situation?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

looking at the output from all the models so far, there seems to be a wide range of possibilities - pretty much all of them cold. the word "mild" could soon be a distant memory.....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

At 216 hours..... Aren't you looking a bit too far ahead there given everything that's been said about how the models are handling the situation?

just commenting on the run itself. it ends up with a cheeky (though weak) easterly. see my last post^^

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Arctic high = chaos in the models, as usual. I think any outcome is possible personally, just hoping for some respite for the sodden areas of the UK!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Ecm comes on board with the latest UKMO run, first snow for many next week. The GFS (12z ) looks messy with various evolutions thrown in this particular run. One I think will be binned after ECM tonight.

 C

UW144-21.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Arctic high = chaos in the models, as usual. I think any outcome is possible personally, just hoping for some respite for the sodden areas of the UK!

I like 'chaos in the models'...All the better(?) for low pressure, slack wind-fields and evaporative cooling, all occurring at the same time. On the other hand?:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite.

6z                                                                    12z

gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.fd2adc7e4875cee2 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.2b64ba6b09eda524

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, bradythemole said:

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite.

6z                                                                    12z

gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.fd2adc7e4875cee2 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.2b64ba6b09eda524

Upgrade in everything there; the Greenland heights, the WAA, the airflow over Europe. Nice :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'll just take the general trends showing up (for now) - the 'detail' will come nearer the 'day (days)'.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There must be some peachy ensemble runs from the GFS looking at that mean. 

Let's hope the ECM keeps this a happy place this evening! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite.

6z                                                                    12z

gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.fd2adc7e4875cee2 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.2b64ba6b09eda524

Nearer the time frame for the first picture

 

gens-21-1-204.png

 

Also nomz

 

gensnh-21-5-312.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, carinthian said:

If Ecm comes on board with the latest UKMO run, first snow for many next week. The GFS (12z ) looks messy with various evolutions thrown in this particular run. One I think will be binned after ECM tonight.

 C

UW144-21.gif

True. Unfortunately I can't remember the last time a UKMO 144 chart came to fruition.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite.

6z                                                                    12z

gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.fd2adc7e4875cee2 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.2b64ba6b09eda524

That'll Do, no point look at detail this far out.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Nice improvement in the GEFS mean from the 12z suite.

6z                                                                    12z

gens-21-1-216.thumb.png.fd2adc7e4875cee2 gens-21-1-192.thumb.png.2b64ba6b09eda524

 

Yes indeed!

 

Makes for a big change in the anomalies a bit further down the line as well.

 

06zgensnh-21-5-312.thumb.png.ac84b23990c4ae12z..gensnh-21-5-300.thumb.png.68f33ab6ec6c94

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

True. Unfortunately I can't remember the last time a UKMO 144 chart came to fruition.

TBH, I can't remember the last time any T+144 chart came to fruition?:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

True. Unfortunately I can't remember the last time a UKMO 144 chart came to fruition.

I am fairly sure this chart will now get the backing of ECM this evening. There will now be a high degree of confidence at UKMO of the imminent arrival of colder weather for the start of next week, much faster evolution to cold than shown on the latest GFS .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very good UKMO tonight with more amplitude over the eastern Pacific and the likely result taken forward is the PV will be kept further to the west with better heights rises to the north.

Even if theres no proper Greenland high its possible to sustain cold longer with shortwave energy cutting se from Greenland. Its important that the Arctic high settles in and hangs around!

Lets hope the ECM will follow the UKMO tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...