Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

phil nw.

Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

Recommended Posts

Struggling to see the issue this morning.

GFS is definitely one of its milder members. So poor output but likely to change.

UKMO looks very good to me at 144 

as for the ECM, still very cold uppers across the uk at 192, 216 & 240. Slight change in its output, but anyone who truly expected the same or better output than yesterday's 12z was always going to be disappointed this morning.

so I still remain cautiously optimistic about a decent cold spell starting next week. Or as optimistic as you can be 7-8 days out.

GFS 

image.gif

UKMO 144

image.gif

ECM 850's

image.png

image.png

image.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at the GEFS and the ECM the critical initial cross polar flow attempt now very strongly moving towards a EPO>Kara Block>Russian link up to various degrees. The GEFS mean at D6:

D6 :gensnh-21-1-144.thumb.png.fbd3ba60e15fc3 D8: gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.c6c7348e9c59a7

Can we then get the Atlantic Ridge and the Kara/Arctic block to attempt a connect from around D8 and 9. Nothing definitive at this range but with the US trough likely to blow up from the initial CAA from the first attempted cross polar flow we really do need a solid block in place by D8 to slow down that US trough mobility. It is not an Atlantic steam train so if the right combo is in place then we could get a more active longer cold spell with the Atlantic ridge further west. No clear instructions from the GEFS at D9 yet with most options on the table but the biggest cluster at 50% is the Atlantic train pushing any block E/SE:

weather_model_gfs_ensemble_-_europe_-_su

No strong conclusions after D7 yet though a five day spell at least of seasonal cold looks likely, mostly dry as even with the best case scenario, getting the UK into the outer realms of that Scandi trough (for snow purposes) looks a tricky one IMO. More runs needed to see where we go from D7. Nothing ruled in or out, but we need a shift the right way in the next couple of days to get a snow potential in what looks a nailed cold snap/spell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Detail aside.. No change this morning from the GFS or ECMWF, With a much colder pattern projected by mid-Month drawing a Northerly type flow. Models are still toying with heights in the Arctic so continue to expect wild swings into the extended runs.

a.pnga.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

some overnight posts have been removed.....member's being referred to as god's etc.......to the poster's in question, do you actually proof-read your posts before hitting the 'submit reply' button ???? :unknw: ....either way, this thread is for model output discussion, and not for member adulation....we have the 'like' button for that, thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe wait for ECM ensembles? Before the toys are thrown from the pram.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

Sounds good a cold high moving around our vicinity with a smashed up vortex leading to a higher probability of polar outbreaks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

indeed Snow Balls, I've lost count how many times the EC32 update has changed, so although good as a guide, this is certainly a very fluid few days/week(s) ahead, and the best option for us is to keep an eye on the models, to see what the trends point to in the post 5-6 day ouput and actually deciding where fl starts, which for me is D4 right now. IMO of course.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM day 10 mean chart. Good signal for high pressure to begin moving in from the west. A dry, cool outlook would be a great relief after all the rain recently.

 

EDH1-240.GIF?05-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Northerly on the ECM monthly control around day 8-10 and thereafter it looks similar to the day 10 ECM OP with a strong high SW of the UK but closer to the UK on the monthly with air being drawn from the Azores round the high pressure for a time. Towards the latter stages of January high pressure to the S/SW with depressions tracking across the north so generally quite unsettled and cool, but there are two more northerly outbreaks one around 23/24th before turning unsettled again and another northerly setting up around the 28-30th, no prolonged cold weather on the ECM monthly but I only have access to the control run, beginning of February sees high pressure centred around France then Germany and southerly winds for the UK.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So ECM ENS are out and pretty much backs the OP

And from the point of interest is cold throughout the later stages, but looking like it wants to push the Atlantic High East towards our shores

So will this be a trend we continue to see this evening, or will we be back to sustained type block. I shall not be guessing.

EDH1-168.GIF?05-12EDH1-192.GIF?05-12EDH1-216.GIF?05-12EDH1-240.GIF?05-12

 

EDH0-168.GIF?05-12EDH0-192.GIF?05-12EDH0-216.GIF?05-12EDH0-240.GIF?05-12

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS ISSUED AT 09:00 ON TUESDAY JAN 5TH 2016

THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION   A filling depression lies across Southern parts of England and Wales, becoming slow moving with a chilly SE flow over the NE with an occluded front lying slow moving in situ. Further frontal system will approach the SW later tomorrow.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn001.gif

 CURRENT SNOW FORECAST AND FREEZING LEVEL OVER THE UK The freezing level across the British Isles ranges from between 1500ft just to the NE of Scotland to nearer 5000ft over Southern England. Snowfall can be expected across the hills of Scotland today and tomorrow especially the mountains of NE Scotland.

http://www.snow-forecast.com/maps/dynamic/uk

http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow.gif

MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE  Continuing unsettled and very windy at times with further heavy rain or showers at times. Perhaps drier and colder for many later next week

THE GFS JET STREAM FORECAST  The main theme of the Jet Stream today shows the Jet Stream incessantly crossing quickly East across the Atlantic and generally to the South of the UK for the next week to 10 days. Towards the end of the run there is some indication of the flow returning to lie North of Scotland still travelling in an Eastwards direction.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=jetstream

GFS OPERATIONAL The theme of the GFS operational run today shows deep Low pressure areas affecting the UK over the next 10 days or so. The centre of the depressions will often lie across the UK for the next 10 days or so bringing rain and showers to all areas and as the air turns somewhat colder for a time next week some of the rain could turn to snow over all hills and winds turn more towards the North. Then High pressure slips down to the South and SE of the UK and builds at the end of the run with winds turning to a milder Southerly direction again with dry, benign weather conditions likely for most and any rain restricted to the far NW but with some frost and fog patches by night in the South.

GFS CONTROL RUN The theme of the Control Run is very similar to the Operational run this morning up until Day 10 with rain and strong winds in largely cyclonic conditions with temperatures falling somewhat next week with more snow on the hills at times and some frosts at night. The departure from the Operational Run leads us into another wet and windy period to close out the run as Low pressure from the Atlantic streams back across the UK with rain and strong winds for many in average temperatures.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=144&mode=0&carte=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=384&mode=0&carte=0

UKMO The UKMO today shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next 6 days with rain and strong winds at times as renewed Low pressure replaces the existing centre over Southern Britain later this week. Temperatures will largely remain close to average through this period with some snowfall on northern high ground at times.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a continuation of the unsettled spell with strong winds and rain at times on troughs repeatedly driven across the UK in a SW flow decelerating and becoming slow moving across the NE of the UK with broadly windy and showery SW winds elsewhere in average temperatures overall.

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

GEM GEM this morning also shows Low pressure close to or over the UK over the next week with strong winds, rain and showers circling the UK throughout. Temperatures close to average then fall back to rather cold levels next week with winds more Northerly allowing cold air to sink South to all next week with showers turning to snow and frost at night becoming more widespread. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rgem2401.gif

NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains a very volatile situation over the enxt week with strong winds and heavy rain at times for all. A notable storm system is shown to cross the South early next week introducing severe gales and heavy rain followed by colder conditions in it's wake as winds swing to the NW with showers turning more readily to snow over the hills over many parts of the UK by day 7.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rnvg1681.gif

ECM ECM today shows another week of strong winds and heavy rain at times as Low pressure remains anchored over the UK over the next week before shifting slowly off to the East. After the heavy rain and showers of the days to come winds swinging North or NW next week bring colder air to all with some wintry showers likely even in the South for a time next week before High pressure to the west ridges in later drying things up but giving a more seasonal flavour of rather cold conditions with frost and fog patches night and morning and a few wintry showers still in the East and SE.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.gif

ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 day mean chart shows Low pressure likely to the NE in 10 days with a strong ridge of High pressure just to the West of the UK. With the Jet stream still showing averaging South and West of the UK lying on the cold side of it would mean cold weather with wintry showers in places especially the North and East.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

NOTABLE TRENDS & CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme of the output has strengthened towards drier and colder conditions developing across the UK next week.

31 DAY HISTORICAL VERIFICATION STATS FOR GFS, UKMO & ECM The verification Statistics of GFS, UKMO and ECM show at 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO  and GFS at 96.5 pts respectively.  At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 96.9 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.4 pts. At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 87.8 pts then GFS at 87.4 pts. Then at 8 Days ECM still leads at 64.9 pts over GFS's 61.5 pts. Finally at Day 10 ECM ties with GFS at 46.2 pts each. 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

MY THOUGHTS   There are increasing signs of change at last within the output this morning towards drier and somewhat colder conditions across the UK from next week. As is usual when model outputs show these type of changes in Winter there are a lot of rollercoaster moments along the way with output showing all sorts of options between wintry armageddon and just a two day cold snap and all things in between and while I personally don't think that anything remarkably cold or snowy is likely a marked change in temperatures to what we have become accustomed to this season so far is likely for all areas. Before we get to that we have another week of deeply unsettled weather as the UK lies under Low pressure giving spells of wind and rain affecting all parts with snow on the hills of the North but temperatures near average for many. It's not until the eary days of next week when the deep low complex across the UK drifts slowly east opening the door to the North and NW for cold winds to accelerate South across the UK. With pressure only recovering slowly wintry showers will probably affect all areas for several days with some wintriness possible even in the South. Frosts at night then look like becoming widespread continuing on into the latter part of next week as it looks like High pressure to the West ridges across the UK for a time with frost and fog night and morning becoming a welcome shift from wind and rain. The jury is then open on how long this lasts and there remains some output which shifts things back towards a westerly milder pattern quite soon but with the Jet flow predicted to be much weaker by then the chances of High pressure hanging around and becoming a much more dominant force in our weather is greater than at anytine recently. So it's a case of watch the models over the coming days and continue to ride the rollercoaster of the ups and downs of an upcoming cold spell always fraught with danger across the UK. Things I think will not become clearer until the coming weekend when some greater cross model agreement on how things pan out next week will arise.

Next Update on Wednesday January 6th 2016 at 09:00 approx

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Heights coming out of Newfoundland seem further west and stronger compared to the 00z, which for me can only be a good thing surely. Im expecting a better run, even though the pesky sw is delaying the cold getting to us.

00z gfsnh-0-144.png?0

06z gfsnh-0-138.png?6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One little point I'm struggling to understand, the low off eastern Canada looks perfectly alligned to me to pump WAA up western Greenland, yet the high is struggling to ridge far north, yet past experiance tells me it should be lacating to Greenland ??

 

gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.5d4b0d027528a68e4b

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The Heights coming out of Newfoundland seem further west and stronger compared to the 00z, which for me can only be a good thing surely. Im expecting a better run, even though the pesky sw is delaying the cold getting to us.

00z gfsnh-0-144.png?0

06z gfsnh-0-138.png?6

Yep, at t168, energy off coming off the north east seaboard is heading up the west side of Greenland rather than getting through under underneath Greenland, hopefully better to follow in FI :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Better heights pushing into Greenland on the 6z GFS and the Atlantic not as progressive. Which gives a better Northerly flow with -11 uppers touching the far North..

a.pnga.pnga.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, KTtom said:

One little point I'm struggling to understand, the low off eastern Canada looks perfectly alligned to me to pump WAA up western Greenland, yet the high is struggling to ridge far north, yet past experiance tells me it should be lacating to Greenland ??

 

I think that part of the problem is the existing depth of cold over Greenland making it hard for WAA to push that away - if it's to happen, it could need a couple of attempts as per last night's ECM I think. We've also got the core of the upper level stratospheric vortex smack bang over the top of Greenland on the 6z.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=10&carte=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The key is WAA, the failed easterly we are in now is because the WAA went up to the artic over us pumping up the high to far to the east, you want the WAA to go up over eastern Greenland.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And collapse complete joke this is turning out to be high should pump right into Greenland from the Atlantic and to top it off the Arctic high should help this also but we get nothing out of both this little island is so frustrating sometimes everything has to be perfect for us to get proper prolonged cold weather.

I know its one run but the trend is setting in this is going to be brief we need a big performance tonight from UKMO & ECM to turn this around and make me believe.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would say that with a chart like this, the GFS is errmmm ..... Struggling with fl, which for me is still +96

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some very cold air pushing South. Yes Karlos, The devil continues to be in detail with the models still resolving the heights over the Arctic. 

a.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The key is WAA, the failed easterly we are in now is because the WAA went up to the artic over us pumping up the high to far to the east, you want the WAA to go up over eastern Greenland.

Everything I see in the models today is in agreement with the met office update from yesterday. A possibility for a brief cold spell preceded and followed by mild weather. 

 

Any news from the MJO?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...